Época de Furacões 2007 - Austrália

[Angelstorm]

Realmente este ano a Austrália é a "contemplada".
Vamos ver se será algum prenúncio para a época de 2007, de furacões no Atlântico Norte...

 

[Luis França]

Mais outro a caminho de Madagáscar ou Moçambique e, pelos vistos, bem convectivo:

 

[Luis França]

Sea monster gives Sydney goosebumps

A massive whirlpool has developed off the coast of NSW, dragging down the sea surface
by almost a metre, diverting a mighty ocean current and chilling Sydney beachgoers.
The mysterious whirlpool is 200 kilometres across and 1000 metres deep, reaching the
ocean floor, CSIRO oceanographers say. The centre is 100 kilometres from the coast
and could stay there for several months.
And another eddy of similar proportions is sitting further off the coast.
CSIRO satellite oceanographer Dr David Griffin said that, while cold-water
eddies regularly appeared off Sydney, scientists knew very little about what
causes them or the influence they have in the Tasman Sea ecosystem.

[link]

 

[Vince]

Madagascar vai dentro de dias ser atingida pelo 6º ciclone tropical desta época, em apenas 4 meses, um recorde no número de tempestades destas num tão curto espaço de tempo.

O último ciclone activo chama-se Jaya, não parece muito sério, mas fica para os registos a quantidade de tempestades deste género a fustigar Madagascar, ainda a recuperar dos últimos ciclones.

825
WTIO30 FMEE 021809

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER : 16/14/20062007
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 14 (JAYA)

2.A POSITION 2007/04/02 AT 1800 UTC :
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2S / 52.7E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN
DEGREES
EAST)

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 5.5/5.5 /D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 90 KT

6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM):
30 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 220 NO: 150
50 KT NE: 060 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 060

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 450 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2007/04/03 06 UTC: 15.4S/50.8E, MAX WIND=085KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE.
24H: 2007/04/03 18 UTC: 15.5S/48.6E, MAX WIND=040KT, OVERLAND.
36H: 2007/04/04 06 UTC: 15.7S/46.6E, MAX WIND=020KT, OVERLAND.
48H: 2007/04/04 18 UTC: 16.2S/44.8E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
60H: 2007/04/05 06 UTC: 16.8S/43.4E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.
72H: 2007/04/05 18 UTC: 17.6S/42.5E, MAX WIND=025KT, TROP.
DISTURBANCE.

2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS:
T=5.5- ; CI=5.5
THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AROUND "JAYA" CONSOLIDATED SLIGHTLY DURING
THE
PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE WARM CORE STRUCTURE REMAINS FLUCTUATING. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS NEUTRAL NEAR "JAYA", THE INTENSITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
BE
MODIFIED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS.
"JAYA" KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTWARDS TOWARDS THE MALGASY COASTLINE. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN THE VICINITY OF
ANTALAHA
TOMORROW MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS ARE FORSEEN OVER
NORTHEASTERN MADAGASCAR, BETWEEN SAINTE MARIE AND FANAMBANA, FOR THE
NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

THE REMNANTS OF "JAYA" MAY TRACK OVER WATER AGAIN IN THE MOZAMBIQUE
CHANNEL AFTER TAU 48, BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN INTENSIFICATION WOULD
BE
POOR.

 

[Vince]

Landfall do ciclone tropical Jaya, felizmente bastante enfraquecido.

Os modelos não prevêm que afecte de forma séria Moçambique.

It's forecast to regain STS strength as it heads SSW in the Mozambique Channel. The forecast map shows that it will just about scrape the coast of Mozambique, but not make landfall within the forecast period.