Furacão RICHARD (Atlântico 2010 #AL19)

Tópico em 'Tempo Tropical' iniciado por adiabático 21 Out 2010 às 21:56.

  1. adiabático

    adiabático
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    Cumulus

    Registo:
    19 Nov 2007
    Mensagens:
    304
    Local:
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    A depressão tropical nº19 evoluiu para a Tempestade Tropical Richard, sendo o 17º sistema tropical a receber nome no Atlântico este ano, tornando a temporada em curso a 3ª desde que há registos a ver uma tempestade "baptizada" com a letra R (ver caixa). Isto não significa que estejamos já perante a 3ª temporada com maior número de sistemas de intensidade igual ou superior a Tempestade Tropical, visto que a posteriori tem acontecido sistemas serem reavaliados e recategorizados, como aconteceu, por exemplo, em 1969 com os sistemas #10 (furacão), #11 (tempestade tropical), #16 (tempestade tropical) e #17 (furacão). Curiosamente, os três últimos formaram-se e dissiparam-se "algures no Atlântico" e passaram despercebidos (curiosamente, as #11 e #16 andaram bem perto dos Açores e o #17 atravessou o arquipélago como tempestade tropical...).

    O Richard tem para já um movimento errático e é difícil prever o seu trajecto, mas o NHC prevê que se fortaleça gradualmente e se torne um furacão dentro das próximas 48h.

    Fonte: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Atlantic_hurricane_season

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    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 212034
    TCDAT4
    TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
    500 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

    THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE WITH RICHARD DURING THE PAST
    FEW HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT APPEARS
    TO BE JUST WEST OF A PERSISTENT BALL OF CONVECTION. THE WESTERN
    SIDE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...A SIGN
    OF THE DRIER AIR IN THAT VICINITY. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE ESTIMATES
    HAVE INCREASED...OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE STRETCHED AND
    THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR
    FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH
    WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

    THE BEST ESTIMATE OF CURRENT MOTION IS ABOUT 155/3. A TROUGH OVER
    THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN STEERING
    THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO.
    HOWEVER... THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE
    AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
    WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE STORM
    EVENTUALLY TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN A DAY OR SO...THEY ARE
    IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO VARYING RIDGE
    STRENGTHS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
    SHIFTED WELL TOWARD THE LEFT...AFTER MOVING TOWARD THE RIGHT
    OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...A
    LUXURY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE...THIS IS A LOW
    CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY NOW IN
    GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND LITTLE CHANGE WILL
    BE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST. THE NEW 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS
    CLOSE ENOUGH TO HONDURAS TO WARRANT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

    CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTER....WITH
    CIRRUS BEGINNING TO FAN OUT IN MOST QUADRANTS. THE MAIN INHIBITOR TO
    FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLY THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN TO
    THE NORTHWEST OF RICHARD. HOWEVER...MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
    CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS MOIST EASTERLY
    MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE
    CYCLONE MOVES INTO WEAKER SHEAR CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT
    INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH AWAY
    FROM LAND...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS STILL STRENGTHEN THIS
    SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
    REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE TRACK
    UNCERTAINTY AND THE HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF EARLIER LAND INTERACTION.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.0N 80.4W 35 KT
    12HR VT 22/0600Z 15.8N 80.6W 45 KT
    24HR VT 22/1800Z 15.7N 81.1W 50 KT
    36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.9N 81.9W 60 KT
    48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 65 KT
    72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 86.0W 80 KT
    96HR VT 25/1800Z 19.5N 88.5W 40 KT...INLAND
    120HR VT 26/1800Z 21.5N 89.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
     
  2. adiabático

    adiabático
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    Registo:
    19 Nov 2007
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    Richard torna-se furacão no mar das Caraíbas

    A tempestade tropical Richard intensificou-se e torna-se, assim, o 10º furacão da temporada 2010 no Atlântico Norte. A ocorrência de 10 furacões numa temporada, nesta região, não sucedia desde a singular época de 2005.

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    O NHC prevê a intensificação do furacão até ao landfall.

    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 241448
    TCDAT4
    HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
    1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

    OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
    AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE INDICATE THAT RICHARD HAS
    INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM 850
    MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE
    WINDS OF 74 KT...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
    VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE AREA AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
    BECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
    BELIZE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL. GIVEN THE
    FAVORABLE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENT...RICHARD SHOULD
    CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL
    INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IS ABOVE THE
    NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
    LAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE
    EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
    SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...290/10. ASIDE FROM BEING
    SLIGHTLY FASTER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT
    ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. RICHARD SHOULD
    CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
    MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
    AFTERWARDS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL
    SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
    DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.9N 86.9W 75 KT
    12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 88.4W 85 KT...INLAND
    24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.8N 90.2W 55 KT...INLAND
    36HR VT 26/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 30 KT...INLAND
    48HR VT 26/1200Z 19.1N 93.0W 25 KT...INLAND
    72HR VT 27/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W 20 KT...OVER WATER
    96HR VT 28/1200Z 21.5N 95.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
    120HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
     
  3. AnDré

    AnDré
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    Staff

    Registo:
    22 Nov 2007
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    10,248
    Local:
    Arroja, Odivelas (142m)
    O furação RICHARD está agora a fazer landfall na costa do Belize:

    [​IMG]

     
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