"IOKE" - Super Tufão
WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 01C WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 291200Z AUG TO 031200Z SEP 2006.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
390 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. STY 01C IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. STY 01C
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
COAMPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, EGRR, TCLAPS, AND WBAR
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMICS AID.
C. STY 01C IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36
AND THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A PARTIAL 290718Z QUIKSCAT
PASS AND A 290807Z SSMI PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. AFTER TAU 72, STY 01C WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND.
THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE WAVE TRAIN ACROSS KOREA AND
JAPAN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, AND THUS THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK FOR STY 01C.
THE INTENSITY OF STY 01C IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//
WDPN31 PGTW 291500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 01C WARNING NR 39//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 291200Z AUG TO 031200Z SEP 2006.
A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 01C (IOKE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
390 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
B. STY 01C IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. STY 01C
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INCREASINGLY NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD A DEVELOPING
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CREATED BY AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS,
COAMPS, GFDN, NCEP GFS, JGSM, JTYM, EGRR, TCLAPS, AND WBAR
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH TAU 72. THIS
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMICS AID.
C. STY 01C IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 36
AND THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM.
D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A PARTIAL 290718Z QUIKSCAT
PASS AND A 290807Z SSMI PASS. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON
A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
E. AFTER TAU 72, STY 01C WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND.
THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THE MID-LATITUDE WAVE TRAIN ACROSS KOREA AND
JAPAN WILL SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACT POSITION AND INTENSITY OF THE SUB-
TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, AND THUS THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK FOR STY 01C.
THE INTENSITY OF STY 01C IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AFTER TAU 72 IN AN
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
FORECAST TEAM: CHARLIE//