Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Atlântico 2012)

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MSantos

Moderação
Registo
3 Out 2007
Mensagens
10,670
Local
Aveiras de Cima
Mais uma depressão tropical se formou no Atlântico, a décima deste ano, deixo aqui o primeiro aviso do NHC para este sistema:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 221451
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012
1100 AM AST WED AUG 22 2012

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 36.3W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM WSW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 36.3 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26
KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINKSY


E a previsão da rota deste sistema:
145229W5_NL_sm.gif
 


MSantos

Moderação
Registo
3 Out 2007
Mensagens
10,670
Local
Aveiras de Cima
Formou-se a 13ª Depressão tropical da época no Atlântico:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 040840
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
500 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2012

...SMALL TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 43.3W
ABOUT 1435 MI...2310 KM NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 43.3 WEST.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/H.
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH ON WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

MSantos

Moderação
Registo
3 Out 2007
Mensagens
10,670
Local
Aveiras de Cima

MSantos

Moderação
Registo
3 Out 2007
Mensagens
10,670
Local
Aveiras de Cima

MSantos

Moderação
Registo
3 Out 2007
Mensagens
10,670
Local
Aveiras de Cima
Segundo o post do Vince no dia 30 de Agosto, a Leslie estava tão a baixo das latitudes médias!
É possível ter-se deslocado assim tão rapidamente para norte ou é impressão minha ele estar tão a norte?

O LESLIE não está tão a norte como parece, está a Sul das Bermudas. Defacto a imagem de satélite dá a ideia que o sistema está mais a Norte do que na realidade está devido à ilusão provocada pela curvatura da Terra na imagem de satélite do IM.

Como podes ver a grande tempestade LESLIE e a pequena tempestade MICHAEL estão quase à latitude da Florida, portanto muito mais a Sul do a imagem do IM sugere.
two_atl-3.gif


Isto acontece porque a imagem é curva mas é apresntada noplano dando a ilusão de
 

Afgdr

Cumulonimbus
Registo
28 Set 2011
Mensagens
2,130
Local
Lagoa - São Miguel, Açores
*** Atualização ***

2NWIP.gif


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SAT SEP 8 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM LESLIE...LOCATED ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA...
AND ON HURRICANE MICHAEL...LOCATED ABOUT 940 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST
OF THE AZORES.

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE DECREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW IS UNLIKELY BEFORE
IT IS ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED BETWEEN THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA AND THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE AS
IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NNNN
 

algarvio1980

Furacão
Registo
21 Mai 2007
Mensagens
12,463
Local
Olhão (24 m)
Actualização:

13661096_iDmR5.jpeg


A onda tropical que o NHC indica com 40% de probabilidades é aquele que o ECM coloca a passar a sul dos Açores e a chegar perto da Madeira dia 18.

13661097_SNc54.jpeg
 
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