Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Atlântico 2016)

[luismeteo3]

Atlantic hurricane season starts June 1: La Nina may fuel most active season in 3 years

Experts are calling for an above-normal hurricane season this year with 14 named storms forecast for the Atlantic basin.

Of those, eight are predicted to become hurricanes and four are predicted to become major hurricanes.

Due to a combination of factors, this season is expected to be more active than any season in the past three years. Experts warn that those living along the Atlantic coast should be on alert.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...a-nina-above-normal-number-of-storms/57846987

 

[Orion]

 

[Orion]

 

[Orion]

 

[lserpa]

O Atlântico tropical começa a dar algum ar da sua graça, embora não seja nada de especial.
A ultima saída do GFS não aponta par que estes sistemas evoluem favoravelmente a médio prazo.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A tropical wave located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles is moving westward at about 25 mph. The associated shower
activity is poorly organized, and given the fast motion of the
system any development should be slow to occur. However, this system
will likely bring showers and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward
Islands and the eastern Caribbean Sea during the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

2. Shower activity associated with a tropical wave and a low pressure
system centered a couple of hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde
Islands has become better organized since yesterday. Some
additional development is possible during the next day or two before
the disturbance encounters a less favorable environment over the
central tropical Atlantic next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

Forecaster Beven

 

[lserpa]

Hoje poderá surgir a tempestade tropical Earl, no golfo do México.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 1 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Thunderstorm activity associated with a strong tropical wave
located over the central Caribbean Sea about 350 miles
east-southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, continues to show signs
of organization. Earlier satellite wind data indicate that the
system is producing winds of 40 to 45 mph, and recent satellite
and ship observations suggest that a circulation is gradually
becoming better defined. If this development trend continues, a
tropical storm is likely to form later today or tonight as the
system moves westward over the west-central Caribbean sea at 20 to
25 mph. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and
gusty winds, perhaps to tropical storm force, are likely along the
southern coast of the Dominican Republic and Haiti today. Tropical
storm conditions are likely to occur over Jamaica by this afternoon
or evening, and could reach the Cayman Islands overnight. Interests
in these areas and elsewhere in the western Caribbean Sea should
continue to monitor the progress of this disturbance. For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and on
the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Brown

 

[lserpa]

 

[lserpa]

Neste momento um avião de pesquisa está a sobrevoar o sistema afim de apurar se pode-se considerar tempestade tropical.

 

[lserpa]

No site dos voos de reconhecimento já se pode ler o seguinte:

Mission 02#
Third Suspect Area (DDL) - AF303


High Density (2)

Geopotential Height: 1,592 meters (5,223 feet)
Static Air Pressure: 843.0 mb
Location: 241 statute miles (387 km) to the SW (223°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
Info:
Invest 97L has become Tropical Storm Earl

Embora o NHC ainda não tenha confirmado essa informação, a qual deverá surgir na próxima actualização.

 

[lserpa]

Dados mais recentes deste voo de reconhecimento
http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/recon.cgi?aircraft_page=AF303&product_page=hdob

 

[lserpa]

como referi anteriormente, segue a actualização do NHC

000
WTNT35 KNHC 021557
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
1200 PM EDT TUE AUG 02 2016

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM EARL IN
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EARL IS THE FIFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2016 HURRICANE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 80.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Governments of Mexico and Belize have issued a Tropical Storm
Warning and a Hurricane Watch for the east coast of the Yucatan
peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/
Guatemala border.

The Government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the entire north coast of Honduras from Cabo Gracias a Dios westward
to the Honduras/Guatemala border including the Bay Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen, Mexico, southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cabo Gracias a Dios westward to the Honduras/Guatemala border
including the Bay Islands.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* East coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta Allen, Mexico,
southward to the Belize/Guatemala border.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
The strong tropical wave that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking across the Caribbean Sea has developed into Tropical Storm
Earl. At 1200 PM EDT (1600 UTC), the center of Earl was located near
latitude 16.3 North, longitude 80.2 West. Earl is moving toward the
west near 22 mph (35 km/h), and this motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On this
track, the center of Earl will be moving very close to the north
coast of Honduras late tonight and Wednesday and approach Belize and
the Yucatan peninsula late Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast before Earl reaches the
Yucatan peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from an Air Force plane was
1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast of Honduras by late tonight, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous, and will reach Mexico and Belize within the
warning area by Wednesday night. Hurricane conditions could begin
in Mexico and Belize within the hurricane watch area Wednesday
night.

RAINFALL: Earl is expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over Jamaica. Total rain accumulations of 8 to 12 inches
are expected over portions of Belize, Honduras, Guatemala, and the
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, with possible isolated maximum amounts
of 16 inches in Mexico and Belize. These rains could result in
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan peninsula to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and damaging waves.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

 

[lserpa]

http://www.meteopt.com/forum/topico/tempestade-tropical-earl-atlantico-2016.8843/

 

[Orion]

 

[lserpa]

Eis que junto,a Cabo Verde surge o Invest 98L

My Weather station data.
https://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=pws:IAORESHO2&MR=1

 

[lserpa]

Ontem, o NHC, não depositava a mínima esperança no Invest 98L, dava-lhe apensas 10% de probabilidade de formação, hoje, já afirmam que esta quarta se torne em algo mais.