Tempestade Tropical Ingrid (Atlântico 2013 #AL09)

Tópico em 'Tempo Tropical' iniciado por Afgdr 13 Set 2013 às 22:12.

  1. Afgdr

    Afgdr
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    Nimbostratus

    Registo:
    28 Set 2011
    Mensagens:
    1,484
    Local:
    Lagoa - São Miguel, Açores
    Formou-se a 9ª tempestade tropical da temporada no Atlântico, a Tempestade Tropical Ingrid.


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  2. Daniel253

    Daniel253
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    Cirrus

    Registo:
    9 Out 2010
    Mensagens:
    60
    Local:
    Açores S.Miguel
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    Código:
    TCDAT5
    
    TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
    400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013
    
    SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
    ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF COLDER
    THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER AND INCREASING OUTER BANDING IN ALL
    QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST.  A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0420 UTC SHOWED
    A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE....ALTHOUGH DATA FROM
    THE MEXICAN RADAR IN ALVARADO SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE BEEN
    TRANSIENT.   SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
    45 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT...PERHAPS
    CONSERVATIVELY...PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
    HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
    
    INGRID HAS STARTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN
    INITIAL MOTION OF 015/3. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
    THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
    AND THEN THE WEST AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL
    RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
    GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME NOTABLE
    ISSUES OF SPREAD. FIRST...THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR A MORE
    NORTHEASTWARD INITIAL MOTION BEFORE THE WESTWARD TURN...WITH BOTH
    MODELS LYING TO THE EAST OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. SECOND...THE
    GUIDANCE LANDFALL POINTS IN MEXICO ARE SPREAD FROM TUXPAN TO NORTH
    OF LA PESCA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
    TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
    HOWEVER...THE MODEL SPREAD INDICATES A LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE
    IN THE FORECAST.
    
    THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INGRID WILL CONTINUE TO
    EXPERIENCE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
    THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST 15-25 KT OF SHEAR DURING THE FIRST 24
    HOURS...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS LESS SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY
    GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM
    MODELS FORECAST INGRID TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...WHILE
    THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND
    SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL.  SINCE THE CURRENT SHEAR HAS
    NOT STOPPED INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
    FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALONG WITH SHIPS AND LGEM...AND
    MAKES INGRID A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT
    THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.
    
    IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
    COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
    PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING
    FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
    THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
    
    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
    
    INIT  14/0900Z 19.8N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
     12H  14/1800Z 20.5N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
     24H  15/0600Z 21.5N  95.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
     36H  15/1800Z 22.2N  96.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
     48H  16/0600Z 22.4N  97.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO
     72H  17/0600Z 22.5N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
     96H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED
    
    $$
    FORECASTER BEVEN
     
  3. Felipe Freitas

    Felipe Freitas
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    11 Fev 2012
    Mensagens:
    3,251
    Local:
    Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
    O NHC deve confirmar que Ingrid se fortaleceu para furacão de categoria 1 em breve.

    AL, 10, 2013091418, , BEST, 0, 210N, 944W, 65, 987, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 0,

    14/1745 UTC 20.9N 94.5W T4.0/4.0 INGRID -- Atlantic

    Imagem do início da tarde de hoje.
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  4. Felipe Freitas

    Felipe Freitas
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    11 Fev 2012
    Mensagens:
    3,251
    Local:
    Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
    Ingrid

    O '' Hurricane Hunters" está atualmente investigando Ingrid.

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  5. Afgdr

    Afgdr
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    Nimbostratus

    Registo:
    28 Set 2011
    Mensagens:
    1,484
    Local:
    Lagoa - São Miguel, Açores
    A Tempestade Tropical Ingrid fortaleceu e é agora um furacão de categoria 1.


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  6. Afgdr

    Afgdr
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    Nimbostratus

    Registo:
    28 Set 2011
    Mensagens:
    1,484
    Local:
    Lagoa - São Miguel, Açores
    Ingrid é agora uma depressão tropical.


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  7. Afgdr

    Afgdr
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    Nimbostratus

    Registo:
    28 Set 2011
    Mensagens:
    1,484
    Local:
    Lagoa - São Miguel, Açores
    As chuvas torrenciais e os ventos fortes que assolaram o México, na costa Oeste e na costa Leste, devido ao Furacão Ingrid e à Tempestade Tropical Manuel respetivamente, originaram muitas cheias e derrocadas, provocando 34 mortes e muitos desalojados.

    Notícia do BBC



    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-24098184
     
  8. Afgdr

    Afgdr
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    Nimbostratus

    Registo:
    28 Set 2011
    Mensagens:
    1,484
    Local:
    Lagoa - São Miguel, Açores
    Ingrid dissipou-se ontem, 17 de Setembro.


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