JERRY LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT...
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE
PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KT IN 48 HOURS. REGENERATION IS
UNLIKELY AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AFTER 48 HOURS.
INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...060/12. POST-TROPICAL JERRY IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A
BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS PREDICTION AND
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
