Tempestade Tropical MATTHEW (Atlântico 2010 #AL15)

Vince

Furacão
Registo
23 Jan 2007
Mensagens
10,624
Local
Braga
Nas Caraíbas formou-se a Tempestade Tropical MATTHEW


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A previsão do trajecto é bastante complexa como dá a entender a discussion do NHC. E esse trajecto, mais ou menos próximo e a interagir com terra pode ter enormes implicações na intensidade do mesmo.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/14. TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
OR SO...AND PASS OVER OR NEAR THE NORTHERN COASTS OF NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS IN 36-48 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFER ON
THE TIMING OF THE WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS FORECAST
TO MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY DAY 3...THE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHEASTWARD AND AMPLIFY INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EROSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MATTHEW IS
EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE STEERING CURRENTS TO COLLAPSE ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALL OF THE
NHC MODELS ARE CONSISTENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYNOPTIC
SCALE PATTERN...EXCEPT FOR THE TIMING. THE GFS...ECMWF...NOGAPS...
HWRF...AND GFDL MODELS KEEP THE LOW WEST OF 85W LONGITUDE BY 120
HOURS...WHEREAS THE UKMET IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND MOVES THE
LARGE TROUGH EAST OF 80W. GIVEN THE USUAL SLOW MOVEMENT OF SUCH
A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH...THE UKMET IS CONSIDERED AN OUTLIER MODEL
AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND
OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS...EXCLUDING THE UKMET SOLUTION...
AND IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK.

STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH 72 HOURS SINCE MATTHEW
WILL BE MOVING OVER 30C SSTS AND BENEATH A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. MATTHEW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR NEAR THE
NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS IN 36-48 HOURS...AND MOVE INLAND NEAR
BELIZE BY DAY 4. LAND INTERACTION WOULD DISRUPT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS DESPITE THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS OVER WATER...THEN MATTHEW COULD
EASILY REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND
BEYOND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS...AND IS BASED ON THE ASSUMPTION
THAT MATTHEW WILL MOVE INLAND AFTER 72 HOURS.