Tempestade Tropical SHARY (Atlântico 2010 #AL20)

Tópico em 'Tempo Tropical' iniciado por adiabático 29 Out 2010 às 07:44.

  1. adiabático

    adiabático
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    Registo:
    19 Nov 2007
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    A partir do invest #92 formou-se, no Atlântico, a tempestade tropical Shary. Segundo o NHC terá uma vida curta mas deverá vir a afectar a Bermuda.

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    ...YET ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED
    FOR BERMUDA...

    (...)

    000
    WTNT45 KNHC 290254
    TCDAT5
    TROPICAL STORM SHARY DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL202010
    1100 PM AST THU OCT 28 2010

    SATELLITE...SHIP...AND BUOY DATA INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION
    ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA HAS
    BECOME BETTER DEFINED. THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED ORGANIZED
    CONVECTION THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION
    TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE
    HAS PASSED JUST SOUTHWEST OF NOAA BUOY 41049 DURING THE PAST COUPLE
    OF HOURS. THE BUOY REPORTED PEAK 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WINDS OF 33 KT
    AT BOTH 0000 AND 0200 UTC. BASED ON THE WIND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE
    BUOY...THE SYSTEM IS STARTED AS A 35-KT TROPICAL STORM....THE
    EIGHTEENTH OF THE 2010 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. SINCE THERE IS
    ENOUGH SEPARATION BETWEEN SHARY AND THE UPPER-LOW TO THE
    SOUTHWEST...AND THERE IS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...THE
    SYSTEM IS DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL RATHER THAN A SUBTROPICAL
    CYCLONE.

    THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 310/20. IT APPEARS THAT
    THE CENTER HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
    HOURS...MAKING IT DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE A MORE PRECISE MOTION.
    SHARY HAS BEEN MOVING BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
    THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW ITS SOUTHWEST. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
    EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST DURING THE
    NEXT 24-36 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
    MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
    IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
    FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF SHARY. THE GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF ARE
    SLOWER THAN THE NOGAPS...GFDL...AND HWRF. FOR NOW THE SLOWER
    SOLUTION IS PREFERRED...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWER THAN
    THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

    IT APPEARS THAT SHARY WILL BE A RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL
    CYCLONE. MODERATE SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
    DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME
    STRENGTHENING. AFTER 24 HOURS...SHARY WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO AN
    EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT MERGES WITH A COLD FRONT. THE GLOBAL
    MODELS DO NOT SHOW ANY ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM AS
    AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. IN FACT...THEY INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE
    SHOULD WEAKEN IN 3-4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 29/0300Z 27.3N 63.7W 35 KT
    12HR VT 29/1200Z 29.6N 65.4W 40 KT
    24HR VT 30/0000Z 32.8N 63.9W 45 KT
    36HR VT 30/1200Z 35.5N 60.0W 45 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    48HR VT 31/0000Z 39.3N 54.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72HR VT 01/0000Z 43.5N 45.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96HR VT 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

    $$
    FORECASTER BROWN/BERG
     
  2. adiabático

    adiabático
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    Registo:
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    Furacão SHARY (Atlântico 2010 #AL20)

    Supreendentemente, a tempestade tropical Shary fortaleceu-se durante a noite e foi classificada como furacão cat. 1 (intensidade = 65 nós). De acordo com o NHC, a classificação foi bastante ponderada e discutida por se tratar de um sistema de dimensões bastante reduzidas.

    SHARY POSES A BIT OF A CONUNDRUM THIS MORNING. THE LATEST SATELLITE
    IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO GROW AND BECOME
    MORE SYMMETRIC NEAR THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...TRMM PASSES FROM
    OVERNIGHT INDICATED THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL EYE FEATURE IN THE
    37-GHZ CHANNEL. WHILE DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE HIGHER THAN EARLIER
    ...THEY ARE FAR FROM SUPPORTING HURRICANE INTENSITY...ALTHOUGH
    THESE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE CLEARLY NOT HANDLING THIS SYSTEM WELL.
    THE DEEPENING OF CONVECTION AND THE EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY
    SUGGEST A FURTHER ORGANIZATION OF SHARY AND AT LEAST A NOMINAL
    INCREASE IN WIND SPEED FROM THE 60 KT OBSERVED FROM THE AIRCRAFT.
    NORMALLY A 5-KT WIND ADJUSTMENT WOULD NOT REQUIRE THIS MUCH
    DISCUSSION...BUT A CHANGE IN STATUS DOES COMPLICATE MATTERS. IT IS
    HARD TO DISCOUNT THE LARGE CONVECTIVE INCREASE AND THE SIGNIFICANT
    IMPROVEMENT ON MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE THE AIRCRAFT DEPARTED...THUS
    THE INITIAL WINDS ARE NUDGED UPWARD TO 65 KT. THIS IS A GOOD CASE
    OF A SMALL HURRICANE THAT WAS VERY UNLIKELY TO BE OBSERVED BEFORE
    THE RECENT ERA WHEN MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY WAS AVAILABLE.

    Em todo o caso, trata-se do 11º furacão da temporada e antecede um mais que provável 12º (Tomas, que deve atingir essa categoria dentro das próximas 12 horas).

    Ainda segundo o NHC, o furacão Shary deverá agora ter uma vida curta e ser absorvido numa frente fria, após perder as suas características tropicais.
     

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