Bons dias,
Estes modelos vão cá uma trapalhada!! ora o jogo do tira e põe começou tardio, mas não a tempo de tirar as esperanças, pois se houvesse um só modelo para me fiar já tinha morrido de ateque cardiaco no minimo, não só nesta situação como em outras
...
Parece que há falta de agua por parte da GFS... já seria de prever! pois a GFS tem muitas dificuldades em lidar com situações convectivas... Já ECW, acompanha a GFS... mas estão os dois praticamente isolados em termos precipitacionais:
JMA (Precipitação acumulada em 24h)
UKMO
NOGAPS
ALADIN
Já ESTOFEX, tambem vê muito potencial neste evento!!
A level 1 was issued for Portugal and parts of Spain mainly for large hail and severe downbursts. A few very large hail events may occur.
... Portugal and Spain ...
A quasi-stationary cold-core low just west of Portugal continues to advect a hot and dry air mass northwards. As can be expected in such a deep WAA pattern, very steep lapse rates cover most of the Iberian Peninsula, while air mass remains capped over most parts of the area. This idea is supported by latest forecast sounding data (strongly curved hodographs, elevated CAPE exceeding 1kJ/kg) but QPF forecasts still differ significantly. Sporadic storms can't be ruled our over S-Spain despite strong cap, as numerous disturbances move through. However, augmented chances for initiation arise over Portugal and NW-Spain, as BL cools down somewhat beneath diffluent upper flow (the same offshore with cooler marine BL). Degree of MUCAPE all night long hints at an augmented large to very large hail risk with each storm, next to strong to severe downbursts due to high LCLs and well mixed subcloud layers. We went ahead and issued a broad level 1 with different thunderstorm probs. to highlight the highest chance for severe.
Sat24 e Radar ate doer os olhos!! e maquinas preparadas lá para a noitinha!!