Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Atlântico 2013)

Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
Mensagens
3,766
Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
Uma área de baixa pressão (INVEST 95L) localizada na Baía de Campeche, tem atualmente 60% de chance de se tornar um ciclone tropical nas próximas 48 horas. Caso se forme a previsão é que 95L tenha uma vida curta e atinja o México. O próximo nome da lista é Fernand.

jDHE3Dz.jpg


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1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH OVER
THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. *ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AND A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE SYSTEM REACHES THE COAST
OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO ON MONDAY. *THIS SYSTEM HAS A
HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. *INTERESTS IN THE
STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE. *AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.
 


Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
Mensagens
3,766
Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
Invest 95L deve ser atualizado para TS na próxima atualização do NHC.
A tormenta está em uma área com baixo cisalhamento e SST próxima a 31ºC, ambiente favorável a sua intensificação.
Não ficaria surpreso caso 95L se torne um furacão antes do landfall no México.

T1.5/1.5 95L

CLDTJlW.jpg
 

Kamikaze

Cumulus
Registo
14 Mai 2012
Mensagens
317
Local
Angra do Heroísmo - Terceira - Açores
Bom dia,

Ao que parece, a próxima semana poderá vir a ser agitada.

O NHC deixa a "promessa" de dois Invests prováveis dentro de pouco mais de 48 horas e, neste momento, um potencial sistema muito débil e pouco ameaçador ao largo da costa sul da Florida.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT WED AUG 28 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN AREA OF CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THERE ARE CURRENTLY NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...AND NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED WHILE IT
DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALMOST MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
TROPICAL WAVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE COAST
INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD
FORM AFTER THE WAVE MOVES OFF THE COAST...AND CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW WHILE IT MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BERG

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Votos de boa Quarta-feira.
 

Daniel253

Cirrus
Registo
9 Out 2010
Mensagens
62
Local
Açores S.Miguel
two_atl.gif


ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE BROAD NATURE OF THIS DISTURBANCE AND
THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
HAVE BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING WESTWARD AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE
WAVE MOVES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

3. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER PASCH
 
Última edição:

minhota

Cirrus
Registo
30 Ago 2013
Mensagens
2
Local
Valença
Olá!

Sou nova do fórum, mas de há umas semanas para cá tenho-o seguido...

Estarei em Riviera Maya na próxima semana (de 3 a 10 de Setembro). Já é possível saber se existe probabilidades de apanhar alguma depressão tropical ou furacão?

As depressões que estão a sair de África quando estão previstas chegar às Caraíbas?
Existem probabilidades de apanhar a península de Yucatan?
 

camrov8

Cumulonimbus
Registo
14 Set 2008
Mensagens
3,288
Local
Oliveira de Azeméis(278m)
Olá!

Sou nova do fórum, mas de há umas semanas para cá tenho-o seguido...

Estarei em Riviera Maya na próxima semana (de 3 a 10 de Setembro). Já é possível saber se existe probabilidades de apanhar alguma depressão tropical ou furacão?

As depressões que estão a sair de África quando estão previstas chegar às Caraíbas?
Existem probabilidades de apanhar a península de Yucatan?

Meu amigo isso é impossível os furacões são sistemas muito complexos
 

overcast

Cumulus
Registo
1 Abr 2012
Mensagens
210
Local
Cascais
Olá!

Sou nova do fórum, mas de há umas semanas para cá tenho-o seguido...

Estarei em Riviera Maya na próxima semana (de 3 a 10 de Setembro). Já é possível saber se existe probabilidades de apanhar alguma depressão tropical ou furacão?

As depressões que estão a sair de África quando estão previstas chegar às Caraíbas?
Existem probabilidades de apanhar a península de Yucatan?

Neste preciso momento não existem depressões tropicais activas no Atlântico. Apenas 2 sistemas que apresentam uma probabilidade (um sistema 10% e outro 40%) de evoluírem para depressão tropical nas próximas 48 horas. Como tal sugiro que acompanhe este site de onde aliás estou a retirar esta informação:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Assim como pode acompanhar neste fórum nos próximos dias se entretanto algum destes sistemas apresentar evolução... e informar-se da rota prevista. Se não evoluírem, melhor. :thumbsup:
 

minhota

Cirrus
Registo
30 Ago 2013
Mensagens
2
Local
Valença
Neste preciso momento não existem depressões tropicais activas no Atlântico. Apenas 2 sistemas que apresentam uma probabilidade (um sistema 10% e outro 40%) de evoluírem para depressão tropical nas próximas 48 horas. Como tal sugiro que acompanhe este site de onde aliás estou a retirar esta informação:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Assim como pode acompanhar neste fórum nos próximos dias se entretanto algum destes sistemas apresentar evolução... e informar-se da rota prevista. Se não evoluírem, melhor. :thumbsup:

Muito obrigado!!! Isso farei...

Caso esses sistemas evoluam, quantos dias demorariam, mais ou menos a chegar às Caraíbas? Caso cheguem.

Um sistema que se forme no Atlântico (junto a África) quanto tempo demoraria (em média) a chegar às Caraíbas no caso de evolução a depressão tropical ou furacão?
 

camrov8

Cumulonimbus
Registo
14 Set 2008
Mensagens
3,288
Local
Oliveira de Azeméis(278m)
Muito obrigado!!! Isso farei...

Caso esses sistemas evoluam, quantos dias demorariam, mais ou menos a chegar às Caraíbas? Caso cheguem.

Um sistema que se forme no Atlântico (junto a África) quanto tempo demoraria (em média) a chegar às Caraíbas no caso de evolução a depressão tropical ou furacão?

Vários dias ou nem chegar pois têm tendência de virar para norte as caraíbas são mais atingidas por sistemas formados mais perto com alguns a formarem-se no mar do caribe
 

Afgdr

Cumulonimbus
Registo
28 Set 2011
Mensagens
2,129
Local
Lagoa - São Miguel, Açores
Agosto terminou com duas tempestades tropicais nomeadas e nenhum furacão, algo que não acontecia desde 2002. Os especialistas continuam a prever uma época acima do normal, apesar de se terem formado apenas 6 tempestades tropicais desde 1 de Junho e de o pico da época ocorrer em 10 de Setembro.


Originally published September 1, 2013 at 7:02 PM | Page modified September 1, 2013 at 7:10 PM

Inactive Atlantic hurricane season a ‘head-scratcher’

Six tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic since the season began June 1 and none of them has grown to hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 miles per hour.

By Brian K. Sullivan
Bloomberg News


August has ended without an Atlantic hurricane for the first time since 2002, calling into question predictions of a more active storm season than normal.

Six tropical systems have formed in the Atlantic since the season began June 1 and none of them has grown to hurricane strength with winds of at least 74 miles per hour. Accumulated cyclone energy in the Atlantic, a measure of tropical power, is about 30 percent of where it normally would be, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal hurricane forecasts.

“At this point, I doubt that a super-active hurricane season will happen,” Klotzbach said in an email yesterday.

The most active part of the Atlantic season runs from Aug. 20 to about the first week of October. The statistical peak occurs on Sept. 10, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Two storms formed in August and the hurricane center is tracking two areas of thunderstorms that have low to medium chances of becoming tropical systems within five days

In the basin now, warm seawater and a decreasing amount of wind shear that can tear at the structure of budding storms mean conditions are ripe “for a burst of activity,” said Todd Crawford, chief meteorologist at Weather Services International in Andover, Mass.

“The very inactive season so far has been a bit of a head-scratcher,” Crawford said in an email interview.

Air temperatures from the Caribbean to Africa have been warmer than normal this year, reducing the instability in the atmosphere that drives storm development, he said. In addition, dry air is being pulled off Africa into the Atlantic, which also cuts storm activity, he said.

The forecast was for an above-normal season. The 30-year average is for 12 storms with winds of at least 39 miles per hour, the threshold at which they are named. Nineteen such systems formed in each of the past three years.

Colorado State, which pioneered seasonal forecasts, retreated slightly on its outlook in an early August update, calling for 18 named storms. Eight should be hurricanes and three of them major hurricanes, a reduction of one at each level, the researchers said.

The National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration also kept its call for an above-average season in an Aug. 8 outlook for 13 to 19 named storms, six to nine hurricanes and three to five major systems.

For natural-gas markets, hurricanes have shifted from being major output disruptions, in part because so much production has shifted to land, to being “load killers” that cut electricity demand as temperatures drop, said Teri Viswanath, director of commodities strategy at BNP Paribas SA in New York.

The Gulf of Mexico is home to about 6 percent of U.S. natural-gas output, 23 percent of oil production and more than 45 percent of petroleum refining capacity, according to the U.S. Energy Department. In 2001, Gulf waters accounted for 24 percent of U.S. marketed gas production.

A quiet first half to the Atlantic storm season doesn’t mean the second will be the same, she said.

“It’s not over until it’s over,” Viswanath said.

Hurricane Sandy, which slammed into New York and New Jersey last year, developed on Oct. 22 and went ashore on Oct. 29. It killed at least 159 people and damaged or destroyed more than 650,000 homes in the U.S., according to a federal task- force report Aug. 19.

The 2002 season, the last to pass without a hurricane by the end of August, included Hurricane Lili, a Category 4 storm that caused about $860 million in damage and killed at least 13 people in the Caribbean and Louisiana from Sept. 21 to Oct. 4, according to the hurricane center. The first hurricane to form that year was Gustav, on Sept. 11.

“On Sept. 9, if there is nothing to talk about, you can call me and we can write off the season,” said Michael Schlacter, founder of Weather 2000 in New York.

http://seattletimes.com/html/nationworld/2021737969_hurricaneseasonxml.html



Hurricane season only half finished

Sunday, September 1, 2013
By:Herald Staff


It’s the first time since 2002 that August has ended without an Atlantic hurricane, but the National Hurricane Center says that increasingly frequent and ferocious storms are still a very real threat.
“We are now only at the mid-point of the six-month hurricane season, and have just entered the peak of the hurricane season,” center spokesman Dennis Feltgen told the Herald yesterday. “We can still have an active season in terms of the numbers of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes.”
Atlantic storms and hurricanes have been closely tracked for nearly 200 years because they can do so much damage to offshore energy generators and the compact coastal communities that dot the East Coast.
The region’s last superstorm, Hurricane Sandy, hit land last year on Oct. 29. By the time it left, the government says, at least 159 people were dead and more than 650,000 homes had been destroyed.
No one seems to know for sure why this August has been hurricane-free, at least on the Atlantic Ocean.
“In 2013, Chantal, Dorian and Erin dissipated when they ran into dry air and wind shear,” Feltgen noted, “and did not impact the U.S.
“Several tropical waves of late over the far eastern Atlantic Ocean have run into the same thing,” he added.
Data shows that air temperatures from the Caribbean to Africa have been warmer than normal, so the atmospheric instability that creates storms has been less intense, but water temperatures in the Atlantic, Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico have been high enough to spawn a hurricane.
Some weather watchers say the direction and speed that certain winds blow has been high enough so far to destabilize any potential storms.
Feltgen said hurricanes could still hit.
Even though the first hurricane of the season typically forms on Aug. 10, “there have been 25 years when the first hurricane materialized on or after September 1,” he said.
But, he added, “in terms of being prepared, these numbers do not matter. It only takes one storm hitting your community to make it a very bad year for you.”

http://bostonherald.com/news_opinion/local_coverage/2013/08/hurricane_season_only_half_finished



Posted: 10:14 a.m. Monday, Sept. 2, 2013

Odd hurricane season so far

By David Chandley

The early season predictions of an active hurricane season is now being questioned. For the Atlantic basin, September 10th is typically the peak of the tropical season and so far we have only had 6 named storms and NO hurricanes.
I pulled some weather records and found that the latest first hurricane was Oct. 8, 1905 and those records go back 161 years. However in the modern era (satellite imagery) the mark is September 11, 2002 with Hurricane Gustav. In fact, only 5 times since 1960 has a season go into September with no hurricanes. For comparison purposes, the average date of the first hurricane is August 10th.
NOAA is still holding on to their 2013 predictions of 13 to 19 names storms, 6 to 9 hurricanes with 3 to 5 of those being major storms (Cat 3,4, or 5). The reason for the quiet season so far; a tremendous amount of dry and dusty air in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere coming off the Saharan desert. This has suppressed the waves coming off the African Coast.
It is way to early to say this season is a 'bust". There are plenty of days left in the tropical season, so stay tuned.
http://www.wsbtv.com/weblogs/david-chandleys-weather-blog/2013/sep/02/odd-hurricane-season-so-far/
 

Kamikaze

Cumulus
Registo
14 Mai 2012
Mensagens
317
Local
Angra do Heroísmo - Terceira - Açores
Boa tarde,

Três "projectos" de ciclone tropical no Atlântico, mas sem grande "convicção".

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ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 3 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR DOMINICA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC.
ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE...THE PROXIMITY
OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN
INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS COULD GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT
WHEN THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...
30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

3. A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AN ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED
NEAR THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA...SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER STEWART

Votos de bom resto de dia.