Seguimento Açores e Madeira - Janeiro 2016

Vince

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23 Jan 2007
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Já saiu o aviso, maior problema é a precipitação.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale force winds are expected to begin over portions of
Azores by late Thursday or early Friday.

RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.




woEUuKY.gif




000
WTNT31 KNHC 132031
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016

...OUT OF SEASON SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 30.8W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Alex.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
Satellite images indicate that the low pressure system over the
eastern Atlantic has developed into a subtropical storm.
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Alex was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 30.8 West. The storm is
moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a turn
toward the north with an increase in forward speed is expected over
the next 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Alex is expected to become an extratopical cyclone before reaching
the Azores on Friday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale force winds are expected to begin over portions of
Azores by late Thursday or early Friday.

RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


000
WTNT41 KNHC 132032
TCDAT1

SUBTROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012016
500 PM AST WED JAN 13 2016

Curved bands of cloudiness and showers/thunderstorms associated with
the low pressure system over the eastern subtropical Atlantic have
become better defined over the past 24 hours. Although the
convection is not very deep, it is likely of at least moderate
intensity given the relatively shallow tropospause over the area.
Given the increased organization, and the apparent dissipation of
nearby frontal features, advisories are being initiated at this
time. The cyclone is co-located with an upper-level low, and
appears to have only a weak warm core, so it is being designated
as a subtropical storm. The current intensity is set to 45 kt in
agreement with an earlier scatterometer overpass. A ship traversed
the northern portion of the circulation earlier today and did not
observe winds of tropical storm force and this is reflected in the
advisory wind radii.

The cyclone has been turning toward the left as it moves in the
flow on the east side of a shortwave trough, and the initial motion
is northeastward or 055/12 kt. The trough is expected to continue
to swing counterclockwise around a broader mid-latitude cyclonic
gyre, and this should result in Alex turning northward and
north-northwestward over the next several days. The official
forecast track follows the dynamical model consensus.

Although the shear is not forecast to become very strong over the
next several days, the cyclone will be moving over progressively
colder waters. Therefore no increase in strength is shown for the
next day or so. In the latter part of the forecast period, some
strengthening is possible due to baroclinic processes. By 96
hours, the global models show the cyclone merging or becoming
absorbed by another extratropical low at high latitudes.

Alex is expected to become an extratropical cyclone by the time it
passes near or over the Azores, so no tropical storm warnings are
being issued for those islands. However, gale force winds are
likely to affect portions of the Azores beginning late on Thursday
or early on Friday.

Alex is the first tropical or subtropical storm to form in January
since an unnamed system did so in 1978, and is only the fourth known
to form in this month in the historical record that begins in 1851.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 27.1N 30.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 28.9N 29.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 32.0N 28.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 36.3N 27.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 42.3N 28.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 16/1800Z 56.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 17/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Pasch
 


Registo
1 Set 2015
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Local
Ponta Delgada
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gale force winds are expected to begin over portions of
Azores by late Thursday or early Friday.

RAINFALL: Alex is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 5 inches over the Azores through Friday, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 7 inches. These rains may produce
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
@Vince, agora esse "life-threatening" assustou um pouco, pessoalmente.. espero que não aconteça nada na zona leste de São Miguel, porque o vento será de SE/S/SW :confused:
 
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luismeteo3

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Fatima (320m)

Wessel1985

Nimbostratus
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Angra do Heroismo, Ilha Terceira, Açores
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Vince

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Braga
@Vince, agora esse "life-threatening" assustou um pouco, pessoalmente.. espero que não aconteça nada na zona leste de São Miguel, porque o vento será de SE/S/SW :confused:

Ao início da tarde já tinha visto o GFDL (um modelo de alta resolução para ciclones tropicais, tal como o HRWF) e tinha bastante precipitação acumulada. Era para fazer uma análise e falar nisso mas entretanto o NHC foi mais rápido do que esperava, pensei que esperassem até madrugada a ver se a convecção se mantinha.

O NHC costuma fazer um blend de modelos quanto a intensidade e trajecto mas na precipitação tende a referir o cenário mais extremo do conjunto de modelos, ou pelo menos uma média dos mais extremos.


GFDL: (em cm=10mm)

FagAUTl.png


HWRF

yUGhPDO.png
 

lserpa

Cumulonimbus
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29 Dez 2013
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Ciclone tropical Alex deve atingir Açores na noite de quinta-feira - IPMA
Lá está está gente a ser mais papista que o papa! Já vem dizer que é uma tempestade tropical! Sensacionalismo.... Puro e duro
 
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lserpa

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O Alex já fechou o seu centro e definiu um bonito olho! Pelo menos no centro a condição é especialmente tropical. Creio que deverá ser por pouco tempo, pela rota que leva, rapidamente entrará em águas frias..
13f7f70c13be936ece3f8649a8105311.jpg
 

Vince

Furacão
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Braga
Bonito output de alguns sensores de satélite que hoje em dia existem, neste caso o GPM (NASA&JAXA) lançado em Fevereiro do ano passado, que tem um radar especial a bordo.

A low pressure center located 1100 miles southwest of the Azores has been monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) for possible development into a non-tropical or tropical storm. This low was producing winds of over 52 kts (60 mph). The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November so a tropical storm developing this early in the year would be unusual but not unprecented.

The GPM core observatory satellite had an excellent daytime look at this area of disturbed weather on January 13, 2016 at 1201 UTC. GPM's Microwave Imager (GMI) and Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) unveiled the rainfall pattern around this low pressure center. Precipitation derived from DPR showed that rain was heaviest in an intense band of storms east of the low's center of circulation. Rain in a few powerful storms was measured falling at a rate of over 94 mm (3.7 inches) per hour. A 3-D examination of the precipitation within this band by GPM's radar (DPR Ku band) found that some storm tops were reaching heights of almost 12.5 km (7.8 miles).

http://pmm.nasa.gov/extreme-weather/gpm-views-atlantic-low-monitored-national-hurricane-center

aD0gRd8.jpg
 

lserpa

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Bonito output de alguns sensores de satélite que hoje em dia existem, neste caso o GPM (NASA&JAXA) lançado em Fevereiro do ano passado, que tem um radar especial a bordo.

aD0gRd8.jpg
Fantástico, que qualidade!! Obrigado @Vince por partilhares o link
 
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Orion

Furacão
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5 Jul 2011
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Açores
Tendo em conta a situação sinótica...

f2M5OXH.gif


... e olhando para o GFS 18z, continua a haver o potencial para trovoada. O SBCAPE e o MLCAPE são significativos. O cisalhamento tenderá a ser fraco. A atmosfera mais baixa parece estar próximo da estabilidade mas os ventos deverão ter ainda força suficiente para originar convecção. As eventuais trovoadas deverão ser de curta duração. Tendo em conta que na zona haverá muita água precipitável, as correntes ascendentes tenderão a ficar mais fracas. Contudo, o mesmo não se aplica no caminho para baixo. Como tal, para além da possibilidade de chuva local muito forte, que já abordei, há também a possibilidade da ocorrência de fenómenos severos de vento (downbursts).
 
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