Furacão Matthew

Vince

Furacão
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Depois de ter estado algum tempo estacionário (o que arrefece muito a água por upwelling) retomou o movimento, para noroeste, talvez ligeiramente à esquerda do último trajecto previsto. Mais tarde está previsto que se mova já numa direcção puramente norte. O maior problema na zona que vai ser afectada é sempre o Haiti, Cuba tem um razoável sistema de alertas, prevenção e evacuação.

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Durante a noite houve um blackout de 2h do satélite GOES-13, o que lançou um bocado de pânico com medo de se ficar às "escuras", mas foi um problema no processamento de dados que foi rapidamente resolvido. Imaginem o duro que estas coisas eram antes da era dos satélites.

A incerteza a médio prazo tem sido muita como puderam ler nas discussions de ontem.
Para os que acham que mesmo o melhor modelo global, o ECMWF, não tem grandes mudanças a médio prazo, esta imagem animada mostra a saída de ontem das 00z vs. a 00z de hoje


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Daqui a 2 horas chega um avião ao sistema, que ajudará a perceber melhor o estado actual do furacão.




HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

The overall organization of the hurricane has changed little
overnight, with the small eye remaining distinct in infrared
satellite pictures. A very recent AMSR2 microwave overpass showed
no indication of an eyewall replacement, but there was a notable dry
slot between the inner core and the outer bands over the southern
portion of the circulation. Although Dvorak data T-numbers
decreased slightly at 0600 UTC, the objective and subjective CI
numbers are about the same as before, so the initial intensity will
remain 130 kt for this advisory. Another Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Matthew this
morning, which should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's
current strength and structure. Although some weakening is predicted
during the next couple of days, Matthew is expected to remain a
powerful hurricane when it approaches the islands of the Greater
Antilles in a couple of days. The upper-level wind environment is
expected to remain favorable over the Bahamas, and warm waters in
that area should allow Matthew to maintain much of its intensity
while it moves over that area later in the forecast period.

Matthew has been moving slowly west-northwestward during the past
few hours, but the longer-term motion estimate is northwest or 320
degrees at 4 kt. The forecast track reasoning remains unchanged
from before. Matthew should move slowly northwestward today,
and then turn northward tonight as a mid- to upper-level trough
develops over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This motion will take
Matthew towards Jamaica, western Haiti, and eastern Cuba over the
next couple of days. After that time, the global models bend
Matthew back toward the north-northwest between the aforementioned
trough and a developing ridge off the northeast United States coast.
The dynamical models are in good agreement on this scenario through
72 hours, with increasing spread thereafter. The GFS, ECMWF, and
UKMET are along the western side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,
while the HWRF is along the eastern side. The latest NHC track is
close to the model consensus through day 3, but is west of the
consensus at 96 and 120 h, to be closer to the typically better
performing global models.

It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
from Matthew in Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 13.9N 74.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.6N 74.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 15.6N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 17.1N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 18.8N 74.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 22.6N 74.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 25.5N 75.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 28.0N 76.2W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/020859.shtml
 


Vince

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Primeira passagem pelo centro a medir 947mb, um pouco acima dos 940mb estimados durante a noite.
Olho um pouco desorganizado com alguns indícios de se estar a formar nova parede exterior (possível ciclo EWRC)


Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 11:34Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 13
Observation Number: 04
A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 11:07:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 13°59'N 74°18'W (13.9833N 74.3W)
B. Center Fix Location: 325 statute miles (523 km) to the SSE (149°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,628m (8,622ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 94kts (~ 108.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the N/NNE (11°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 96° at 122kts (From the E at ~ 140.4mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (6°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 947mb (27.97 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 8°C (46°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,045m (9,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,069m (10,069ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 13°C (55°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the southeast, SE
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 320° to 140° (NW to SE)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind:
122kts (~ 140.4mph) which was observed 10 nautical miles (12 statute miles) to the N (6°) from the flight level center at 11:04:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 115° at 4kts (From the ESE at 5mph)

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
RAGGED EYEWALL WITH POSS OUTER FORMING



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Vince

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Desde que o actual RECON chegou ao ciclone há 5 horas atrás que este voltou a não ganhar latitude, movendo-se muito lentamente para oeste em vez de noroeste, o que deixa as pessoas na Jamaica e EUA mais nervosas. Só na última passagem pelo centro já subiu qualquer coisa pouca, e a pressão baixou para 946mb.
Nas imagens de satélite o olho parece querer clarear de novo

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Orion

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Vendo as coisas de uma maneira mais 'descontraída'...

Haiti -> Pobres já são. Este furacão tem o potencial de empurrar mais alguns para isso;

Cuba -> Provavelmente houve muito turista que marcou as férias para agora para escapar aos furacões e pimba. Lá se foi a normalidade;

Jamaica -> País conhecido pelo consumo de cannabis. Quanto a ilha estiver a ser atingida certamente muitos vão confundir o vento e a chuva forte com uma moca anormal.

Mais a sério, o Haiti no princípio deste ano estava com grandes problemas no abastecimento de comida. Enquanto que isso não é propriamente novidade, o país estava a sofrer com a pior seca dos últimos 35 anos (aqui e aqui).

O Haiti, ao contrário da vizinha R. Dominicana, sofreu um desflorestamento abismal. Derrocadas devem ocorrer:

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A ponta leste da Jamaica é também algo montanhosa, devendo haver algum cuidado:

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Vince

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HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

After temporarily losing some of its organization this morning,
Matthew has become a little more impressive in its appearance. The
eye, while not quite cleared out on visible imagery, has become more
distinct during the day and the overall cloud pattern has become a
bit more symmetric. Consistent with these changes, observations
from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicated that some
strengthening has taken place. The advisory intensity is set
to 125 kt based on a blend of flight-level winds, SFMR-observed
surface winds, and eyewall dropsonde data from the aircraft.

Dynamical guidance indicates that the vertical shear over Matthew
should remain low or at most moderate at least until the cyclone
moves near the Bahamas, which would imply little decrease in
intensity. However, interactions with land should cause some
weakening during the next couple of days. Aside from that, some
fluctuations in strength could occur due to eyewall replacements.
The official intensity forecast is near or above the latest model
consensus.

Earlier today, the hurricane meandered westward for several hours,
but recent aircraft and satellite fixes indicate that the motion is
northwestward, albeit slowly, at around 4 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is about the same as in the previous advisory package.
Matthew is expected to turn northward and move along the western
side of a mid-level high pressure area for the next several days.
Later in the forecast period, a ridge building slightly to the north
of the tropical cyclone could induce a turn to the left. In
general, the track models have not shifted closer to the coast with
the exception of the U.K. Met. Office global model, which is an
outlier. The official track forecast is along essentially the same
trajectory as the previous one, but is a little slower than before.
This is slightly west of the latest multi-model consensus.

Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible possible
hurricane impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or
how, Matthew might affect the remainder of the United States east
coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 14.6N 74.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 15.4N 74.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 16.7N 74.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 18.3N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 20.1N 74.5W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1800Z 23.6N 75.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 26.8N 76.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 30.0N 76.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/021456.shtml?
 

lserpa

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Horta, Matriz, (90m)
Nada que o meu iPhone não resolva lolol :) está a estourar um bela célula sobre a Jamaica!!!! Deve está a chover pesadíssimo!!


Enviado do meu iPhone usando Tapatalk
 

Orion

Furacão
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Em teoria a Jamaica não deverá levar com o pior, estando isto reservado para a ponta oeste do Haiti. Vendo o sismo de 2010...

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... a tempestade pode voltar a afetar as zonas destruídas. O cenário não é grande coisa:

Almost 60,000 people are still homeless and living in camps, and the common struggle to rebuild has done nothing to close Haiti's deep political divisions.

"Six years on and we still don't know the exact number of our dead, nor all their names," feminist collectives Kay Fanm and Solidarite Fanm Ayisyen (Haitian Women's Solidarity) said.



---

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As cadeias montanhosas perpendiculares à força dos ventos decerto ajudarão algumas pessoas. O furacão também não é grande por aí além. Contudo, não é muito difícil dar pancada em quem já está no chão. Mas ainda assim podia ser pior.
 
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Vince

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Ele agora vai entrar na zona de águas mais quentes, o que o poderia intensificar ainda mais. Mas em contrapartida, a partir de amanhã as serras da Hispaniola já devem começar interferir no fluxo/inflow do quadrante NE, o que costuma afectar os ciclones. Claro que isso muito provavelmente significa montanhas de água a cair naquelas serras.


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criz0r

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Caribbean Impacts
Impacts, such as outer rainbands and some initial tropical storm-force gusts could begin in Jamaica and Hispañola (particularly Haiti) as soon as Sunday night, and in eastern Cuba as soon as Monday. This could make preparations difficult.

Over a foot of rainfall from Matthew may trigger life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. In Haiti, in particular, heavy rainfall could be catastrophic. Here are the latest rainfall projections from the National Hurricane Center:

  • Southern Haiti: 15 to 25 inches, locally up to 40 inches
  • Western Haiti: 8 to 12 inches, locally up to 20 inches
  • Northern Haiti: 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 5 inches
  • Eastern Cuba, eastern Jamaica, the Dominican Republic: 5 to 10 inches, locally up to 15 inches
  • Southeast Bahamas: 8 to 12 inches, locally up to 15 inches
  • Turks and Caicos: 2 to 5 inches, locally up to 8 inches





Fonte: https://weather.com/storms/hurrican...bean-haiti-jamaica-cuba-bahamas-forecast-oct2
 

Orion

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Modifico o que escrevi (aquele mapa do GFS é mau). 8-12 polegadas dá algo como 200-300 mms na capital P-au-P. Não vai ser giro.

As últimas tempestades de índole tropical a atingir o Haiti foram, salvo erro, o Isaac e o Sandy em 2012.

O Haiti é um desastre a todos os níveis incluindo na natureza. Tem mais ou menos a população portuguesa empacotada em +-28000 km2 (1/3 de Portugal). Há bem pouco tempo tinha apenas 2% de cobertura florestal (provavelmente tem contribuído para as secas).

Infelizmente o Haiti é conhecido pela magia negra/vodu. Vai uma aposta que os próximos dias vão ser bastante movimentados...? :rolleyes: Paralelamente, e como já escrevi, a malta macabra tem vizinhos descontraídos.

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criz0r

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O Haiti é um desastre a todos os níveis incluindo na natureza. Tem mais ou menos a população portuguesa empacotada em +-28000 km2 (1/3 de Portugal). Há bem pouco tempo tinha apenas 2% de cobertura florestal (provavelmente tem contribuído para as secas).

Este Furacão a confirmar-se o landfall em Cat.3 ou 4 no Haiti terá um impacto destruidor, como referis-te e bem num comentário mais acima o País tem tido uma desflorestação enorme e aliado à imensa pobreza que piorou com o violento sismo de 2010 poderemos vir a ter cenários devastadores nas zonas mais afectadas pelo Mathew.
Os Americanos esses até já "Desertam" de Guantânamo.