Furacão Matthew

lserpa

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Horta, Matriz, (90m)
Este Furacão a confirmar-se o landfall em Cat.3 ou 4 no Haiti terá um impacto destruidor, como referis-te e bem num comentário mais acima o País tem tido uma desflorestação enorme e aliado à imensa pobreza que piorou com o violento sismo de 2010 poderemos vir a ter cenários devastadores nas zonas mais afectadas pelo Mathew.
Os Americanos esses até já "Desertam" de Guantânamo.
Sendo verdadeiramente realista, no Haiti provavelmente haverá no mínimo algumas centenas de fatalidades à passagem do Mathew


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Vince

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HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

Although an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating
Matthew this evening has yet to report flight-level or surface
winds anywhere close to the 130-kt winds measured in the previous
flight, recent aircraft data have indicated that the surface
pressure and 700-mb height have both decreased since the previous
flight. The eye has cleared out in infrared satellite imagery and
cloud tops have cooled around the 8-12 nmi diameter eye. Given the
lower central pressure of 943 mb, which corresponds to about 120 kt
on the Dvorak pressure-wind relationship, the small eye, and recent
NHC objective T-numbers of T6.3/123 kt to T6.5/127 kt, the initial
intensity will remain at 125 kt for this advisory.

Matthew has continued to meander and wobble over the past several
hours, but the best estimate of the forward motion based on recent
recon fixes is 360/04 kt. Although some erratic motion could still
occur due to Matthew interacting with a large convective complex and
mid-/upper-level vortex located about 150 nmi east of Matthew, the
cyclone is expected to move in a general northward direction for the
next 48 hours or so. After clearing the northeastern coast of Cuba,
Matthew is expected to turn toward the north-northwest within
southeasterly flow between the western periphery of a strong ridge
located over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak mid- to
upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The 12Z UKMET and 18Z GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models now
show a weaker trough over the Gulf of Mexico on days 3-5 as a larger
storm system currently located over the northwestern U.S. is
forecast to not be as strong or as far south as previously expected.
This has resulted in more downstream ridging in those models over
the southeastern United States, and the model tracks of Matthew have
responded by shifting westward. The new NHC track forecast has been
shifted slightly to the west or left of the previous advisory track,
mainly to account for the more westward initial position. However,
the forecast track remains to the east of the UKMET, GFS, and
GFS-ensemble mean models, and lies near the TVCX consensus model.

Matthew is forecast to remain in a low vertical wind shear
environment for the next 36-48 hours, with the shear reaching near
zero values by 24 hours. This condition, along with the very
favorable upper-level outflow pattern noted in water vapor imagery,
should allow for the cyclone to at least maintain its current
intensity, barring the eye making any direct interactions with
Jamaica or Haiti. By 48 hours, however, land interaction with
eastern Cuba should induce more significant weakening. The official
intensity forecast remains near or above the latest model consensus.

Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
there. It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew might
affect the remainder of the United States east coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 14.7N 75.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 15.7N 75.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 17.1N 75.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 18.8N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 20.6N 74.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
72H 06/0000Z 24.0N 75.6W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/0000Z 27.1N 76.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 30.1N 76.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart





Dados da bóia 42057
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058&unit=E&tz=CST


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OtgZOt2.png





Pelo último voo RECON já se vê melhor o movimento para norte, embora muito lento, entre o 1º "center fix" e o último passaram 5 horas e ficam a apenas 45km de distância um do outro, o que é quase estacionário. O avião encontrou ventos um pouco mais fracos, e a parede aberta a sudoeste.


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criz0r

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Epic rainfall, brutal strength in Haiti

The National Weather Service reported Monday Matthew could dump up to 25 inches of rain on southern Haiti -- including 40 inches in isolated areas.
Matthew will likely make landfall sometime after Monday night just off the western tip of the Tiburon Peninsula, the National Weather Service said. The storm surge is expected to reach 10 feet along the coastline. Rainfall of up to nearly two feet could lead to major flooding and trigger perilous landslides.
In addition, a direct hit on Haiti could also be disastrous as much of the country's infrastructure remains weak after the 2010 earthquake that killed more than 200,000 people. Haiti continues to recover from a cholera outbreak after the quake that killed another 10,000.

- http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/03/americas/hurricane-matthew/index.html

Impressionante! Já sabemos que os mídia são sempre uma Hipérbole, mas a ser verdade estamos a falar num valor superior a 1000mm de chuva em alguns locais.
 
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Vince

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O olho passou mesmo na Bóia 42058 que mediu 943mb de pressão mínima.
De notar que a medição de vento numa bóia nestas condições é muito deficiente, pois a bóia está numa montanha russa a subir e descer ondas de 7/10 metros a cada 7 ou 8 segundos.

gxo49cj.png


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058&unit=M&tz=GMT




A intensidade máxima estimada dos ventos foi novamente revista para baixo, flutuações na intensidade são normais ao longo do tempo, e basicamente imprevisíveis dada complexidade de processos que interagem simultaneamente. Os efeitos do complexo de trovoadas que se tem mantido a leste do sistema e que tem sido muito discutido nos últimos dias, a interacção com terra e serras nestes próximos dias, etc,etc.


HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission that ended shortly
before 0600 UTC did not find flight-level or surface winds as high
as reported during the previous flight yesterday afternoon. It is
not clear from microwave imagery if the reduction in winds is the
result of an eyewall replacement. There was no evidence of a double
wind maximum in the aircraft data, but the crew reported that the
eyewall was open to the southwest. Using a blend of the aircraft
data and recent satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity
has been reduced to 115 kt for this advisory. The center of Matthew
has recently passed over NOAA buoy 42058 in the central Caribbean
Sea, which reported a minimum pressure of 943 mb and light winds
around 0650 UTC.

Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving northward
or 360/5 kt. The hurricane is expected to move generally northward
around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the
west-central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and little
change was needed to the NHC forecast through 48 hours. Once
Matthew moves near the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, it is
forecast to turn northwestward or north-northwestward in
southeasterly flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level
low/trough over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The model guidance is in relatively good agreement
through 72 hours, but begin to diverge by days 4 and 5. The UKMET
which was previously the western outlier, has shifted eastward this
cycle, and is now close to the GFS. The 0000 UTC ECMWF trended
westward and that model is now along the western edge of the
guidance envelope. The NHC track has been nudged westward at days
4 and 5, and lies close to the GFS and UKMET solutions. This is a
bit west of the model consensus since the higher quality models
are on that side of the guidance envelope.

Matthew is forecast to remain in low shear and over warm water
while it moves northward toward the Greater Antilles. Some
restrengthening is possible, but fluctuations in intensity are
likely due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. Some
weakening is forecast when the hurricane interacts with land in a
couple of days, however Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane throughout much of the forecast period.

Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible hurricane
impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew
might affect the remainder of the United States east coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 15.2N 74.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 16.2N 74.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 17.9N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 19.7N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 21.4N 74.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 24.6N 75.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 27.6N 76.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 30.8N 77.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
 

criz0r

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STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and large
and destructive waves could raise water levels by as much as the
following amounts above normal tide levels...

Southern Coast of Cuba east of Cabo Cruz...7 to 11 feet
South Coast of Haiti...7 to 10 feet
Northern Coast of Cuba east of Camaguey...4 to 6 feet
Jamaica...3 to 5 feet
Gulf of Gonave in Haiti...3 to 5 feet
Southern coast of the Dominican Republic...1 to 3 feet
Central and southeastern Bahamas...10 to 15 feet

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/031154.shtml
 
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Vince

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uVyb4q2.gif



HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

The latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into Matthew
found peak flight-level winds of 124 kt at 10,000 feet and a peak
SFMR wind of 122 kt in the northeastern eyewall around 12Z. Based
on these data, the initial intensity is set to 120 kt for this
advisory. The aircraft reported an eyewall with a diameter of
14 n mi that is open to the southwest and the latest central
pressure based on dropsonde data is 941 mb. Little overall change
in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, with the
exception of some weakening due to possible land interaction with
Haiti and eastern Cuba. However, there could be fluctuations in
intensity due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict.
While Matthew is expected to be a little weaker once it moves into
the Bahamas as the shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat
content decreases a little, it is expected to remain a dangerous
hurricane through the next 5 days.

Matthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should
continue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours
around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
During this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement
and the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the
consensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope. After that
time, the track foreast becomes more complicated, with the models
continuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the
ridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large
amount of along and cross track spread at these times. The ECMWF
and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,
with the other models farther east. The new NHC track is a bit left
of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a
little left of the latest multi-model consensus.

While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew
east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global
ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out. In
addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew
could affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 15.6N 75.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 17.0N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 18.9N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 20.8N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 22.6N 74.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 28.5N 77.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/031457.shtml



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Orion

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Sendo verdadeiramente realista, no Haiti provavelmente haverá no mínimo algumas centenas de fatalidades à passagem do Mathew


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As zonas tropicais não são propriamente locais agradáveis para se viver. Pior que os danos durante a passagem do furacão será o rescaldo. Deve-se esperar nas próximas semanas uma proliferação explosiva de doenças (cólera, disenteria...). Há pouco tempo houve um surto de cólera porque os esgotos da missão da ONU estavam desaguando num ribeiro em que muita gente bebia (pensa-se que morreram +-10.000 pessoas). Isto vai-se repetir porque a pouca infraestrutura básica deve ficar danificada de uma forma ou de outra e as fossas séticas deverão transbordar (e muito haitiano vai para a mata).

Realisticamente o furacão pode matar umas dezenas (vou ser mais conservador que tu). Mas se os danos forem maus o suficiente os mortos a médio prazo podem chegar aos milhares. Tanta água parada vai ser um paraíso para os mosquitos.
 
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Dias Miguel

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Realisticamente o furacão pode matar umas dezenas (vou ser mais conservador que tu). Mas se os danos forem maus o suficiente os mortos a médio prazo podem chegar aos milhares. Tanta água parada vai ser um paraíso para os mosquitos.

Orion, a orografia, a estrutura dos solos e a desflorestação de Haiti é também factores decisivos a ter em conta,
Recordo-me que, no terremoto de 2010, houve muitos deslizamentos de terras nas zonas das favelas junto à capital, na mesma zona onde houve milhares de vítimas noutras situações de tempestades tropicais.
Apesar da trajectória do furação passar a oeste da capital, creio que num país com aquelas características, irá ser uma nova tragédia. Gostava estar errado, mas cinjo-me ao que já aconteceu anteriormente... :(
 
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Orion

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Orion, a orografia, a estrutura dos solos e a desflorestação de Haiti é também factores decisivos a ter em conta,
Recordo-me que, no terremoto de 2010, houve muitos deslizamentos de terras nas zonas das favelas junto à capital, na mesma zona onde houve milhares de vítimas noutras situações de tempestades tropicais.
Apesar da trajectória do furação passar a oeste da capital, creio que num país com aquelas características, irá ser uma nova tragédia. Gostava estar errado, mas cinjo-me ao que já aconteceu anteriormente... :(

O meu raciocínio por partes...

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Excluindo a nebulosidade periférica capaz de produzir grandes quantidades de precipitação, o furacão, e os ventos mais fortes, não cobrem uma grande extensão.

imKWc2A.png


O núcleo deve passar mesmo ao lado das zonas mais populadas incluindo a capital.

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As montanhas do oeste haitiano são altas mas não por aí além. Portanto, acho que a precipitação será massiva nas duas encostas. P-au-P está relativamente protegida do vento mas não das inundações e derrocadas. O maior perigo para a capital será mesmo a precipitação. Já a restante malta do oeste da ilha teria que evacuar porque a orografia será péssima para o vento e chuva.

Por outro lado, a orografia do Haiti é bastante favorável. A península massiva irá proteger boa parte da ilha do elemento mais destruidor, as ondas:

EBTwm6b.png


O problema do Haiti é multifatorial (muita população, mau planeamento urbano e má qualidade da infraestrutura, reduzida governabilidade...). Para além das doenças haverá provavelmente muita gente que perderá as suas colheitas.

Mantenho que podia ser pior. Port-au-Prince tem montanhas a norte e a sul. Está efetivamente num vale. Se o furacão passasse mais a leste, aí sim, podia ser mais um desastre bíblico (não estou a desvalorizar o fenómeno atual porque muito provavelmente será péssimo como tende a ser naquele país).

 

Orion

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Mantenho que podia ser pior. Port-au-Prince tem montanhas a norte e a sul. Está efetivamente num vale. Se o furacão passasse mais a leste, aí sim, podia ser mais um desastre bíblico (não estou a desvalorizar o fenómeno atual porque muito provavelmente será péssimo como tende a ser naquele país).

VgQXNiE.gif


Agora é esperar que o furacão não mude de trajetória.


Nota que isto é de 2008 e o sismo foi em 2010. Estou a assumir que não houve alterações significativas (não encontrei imagem mais recente)
 
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