Seguimento Litoral Centro - Novembro 2016

JAlves

Cumulus
Registo
26 Nov 2007
Mensagens
244
Local
Ramada > Odivelas > Lisboa
Entretanto...

showforecast.cgi


Storm Forecast
Valid: Fri 25 Nov 2016 06:00 to Sat 26 Nov 2016 06:00 UTC
Issued: Thu 24 Nov 2016 13:45
Forecaster: TUSCHY

A level 1 was issued for parts of the W/SW coasts of Portugal and Spain mainly for excessive rain and an isolated tornado event along the coasts.

A level 1 was issued for areas from Malta to Sicily and S-Italy mainly for excessive rain, large hail, isolated severe wind gusts and a low-end tornado risk.

A level 1 was issued for areas from the Ionian to the Adriatic Sea mainly for excessive rain.

SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION

Blocking high-over-low pattern becomes established over W-Europe, whereas a more progressive pattern impacts most of N-Europe.This configuration favors BL moisture recovery over the E-CNTRL Mediterranean with areas further north covered by dry and cool/cold continental air. Enhanced moisture plumes within conveyor belts affect areas from the Bay of Biscay to Iceland. This pattern keeps thunderstorm chances confined to the Mediterranean region.

Over SW-Europe, a pronounced upper cyclonic vortex splits with the western part meandering off the W-coast of Portugal while the eastern one drifts east over the far W-Mediterranean. Both vortices will be accompanied by cold mid-levels with central
temperatures at H500 of -24 °C or less. Hence, 400-800 J/kg MLCAPE are forecast SW of Portugal and over the W-CNTRL Mediterranean with peak CAPE values confined to coldest
mid-levels. CAPE values decrease east of Spain with offshore flow and long onshore fetch of low/mid-tropospheric trajectories. Peak MLCAPE in excess of 1 kJ/kg is possible with highest BL moisture and a modest EML plume overlapping south of Sicily.

Most areas miss strong shear beneath the upper lows, so the main risk appears to be a localized heavy rainfall risk with isolated flash flooding, mainly driven by the mesoscale. A few waterspout reports will be possible with enhanced LLCAPE and weak background shear next to isolated large hail due to rather cold low/mid-levels.

SW-Portugal/Spain may see a more robust excessive rainfall risk as high thetae plume shifts east on a very slow rate and hence a level 1 was issued with an isolated tornado threat along the coasts.

From Malta to Sicily, 20 m/s DLS overlap with 600-1000 J/kg CAPE and organized convection is possible. Multicells bring excessive rain, isolated large hail, strong to severe wind gusts and isolated tornadoes, although the latter risk will be rather limited due to weak LL shear. This region was also highlighted by a level 1. An excessive rainfall risk expands to the NE to the CNTRL Adriatic Sea. Weak shear supports clustering and slow moving storms with an attendant heavy rainfall risk.

Between 00Z-06Z, diffluent mid-/upper flow regime and favorable placement beneath a 50 m/s mid-level jet result in isolated weakly electrified convection just west of CNTRL Norway. 25 m/s 850 hPa flow may result in a few strong to severe wind gusts, but limited confidence in more than a few lightning events precluded an upgrade for now.
 


Candy

Cumulonimbus
Registo
19 Jan 2013
Mensagens
2,476
Local
Peniche - Cabo Carvoeiro
Venta com'o caraças... Chove com'o caraças... tá um frio do caraças com este vendaval...
Falta a trovoada...
O vento já sopra forte e com rajadas.
 

Candy

Cumulonimbus
Registo
19 Jan 2013
Mensagens
2,476
Local
Peniche - Cabo Carvoeiro
A chuva continua torrencial como é que é possível o ipma não lançar qualquer aviso de precipitação!!!!!!!!!!!.
É que já nem vale a pena questionar!...
Lançaram amarelo para o vento, mesmo em cima do acontecimento e já foi muito bom.
 

vortex

Cirrus
Registo
24 Dez 2015
Mensagens
78
Local
Brejos de Azeitão
Boas!Continua a chover bem,por vezes forte;até agora sigo com 6,3mm, vento a variar de W/SW entre 10 a 15Kmh com rajada de 28,1Kmh(W).Hr95% e 10.8ºC.