O Dorian passou a algumas dezenas de quilómetros a sudoeste/oeste desta boia.
After day 3, steering currents collapse as a break develops in the ridge, and Dorian will likely slow down considerably as it approaches the Florida peninsula. There is more spread among the deterministic models and their ensemble members during that time, with disagreement on exactly when and where Dorian will turn northwestward and northward on days 4 and 5.
The upper-level low to the west of Dorian continues to impart some southwesterly shear over the hurricane, which has prevented it from strengthening rapidly. However, Dorian is expected to enter a more favorable upper-level environment during the next 24 hours, which should allow its structure to become more well developed. Although overall the environment ahead of the storm appears conducive for strengthening, some models (in particular the ECMWF) suggest that some northerly shear could come into play while Dorian moves through the northwestern Bahamas, and for that reason the NHC official intensity forecast is not quite as bullish as the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and HWRF models. Still, Dorian is forecast to become a dangerous major hurricane later and maintain that status as it heads for the northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula.
Bela imagem! Também umas belas super células convectivas por cima da Rep. Dominicana.O Dorian é agora um major hurricane (cat3+) com ventos máximos sustentados de 115 mph ≈ 185 km/h. Tem uma pressão mínima central de 970 hPa.
Apresenta um deslocamento para NW a uma velocidade de 10 mph ≈ 16 km/h, devendo rodar, posteriormente, para WNW/W.
Mantém-se a previsão de intensificação nos próximos dias e espera-se, então, que passe perto do Noroeste das Bahamas e chegue à península da Flórida como furacão cat4.
19h40 UTC
Já é possível observar o olho do furacão na imagem de satélite.
However, given the slower
forecast speed of Dorian, it is too soon to issue and watches for
the Florida coast at this time.