Furacão LORENZO (Atlântico 2019 #AL13)

clone

Cumulus
Registo
4 Jan 2014
Mensagens
199
Local
-.-
Parece que o pior vai mesmo passar ao largo

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FJC

Cumulus
Registo
14 Dez 2009
Mensagens
324
Local
Marinha Grande
Lorenzo continua com uma organização notável:



Para além da intensidade dos ventos prevista, há que contar com os efeitos locais de contorno das ilhas, de afunilamento, e de altitude.
Na minha opinião, o mais grave vai ser a agitação marítima.


Já passou a zona onde suspeitavas que podia ficar mais forte devido á temperatura da água mais quente!?
É que parece estar a organizar-se desde a umas horas para cá..... (Cerca das 11h00).
 

Éire

Cirrus
Registo
13 Mar 2008
Mensagens
61
Local
Kildare, Irlanda
Última discussion do NHC. Sempre cerca de 80 nós nos Açores mas ainda força furação a 53.5 N, uns 400 km ao oeste da costa ocidental da Irlanda.

1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

Lorenzo remains a well organized hurricane this morning as it heads
toward the Azores. The eye has made a reappearance in infrared
satellite imagery, and the cloud tops associated with the
surrounding ring of convection have cooled. The advisory intensity
remains 85 kt, which is the consensus of the latest objective
and subjective satellite intensity estimates that range from 77 to
90 kt. Lorenzo is expected to maintain its intensity today, but it
will be moving over progressively colder waters and into an area of
increasing shear, which should cause gradual weakening by
Wednesday. The global models show the hurricane merging with a
frontal zone, and becoming extratropical in about 36 hours. The
extratropical low should weaken in a couple of days while it moves
near Ireland and Great Britain, and then it is forecast to dissipate
over Europe by 96 hours.

Lorenzo is moving northeastward at 22 kt. The hurricane should
continue to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough
over the central Atlantic during the next day or two. After that
time, the cyclone is predicted to decelerate and turn
east-northeastward or eastward within the low-level westerly flow.
The global model guidance is in excellent agreement through the
first 36-48 hours, and has also come into somewhat better agreement
on the eastward turn later in the period. The updated NHC track has
been adjusted southeastward at 72 hours, but still lies north of the
multi-model consensus. An additional southward and eastward
adjustment of the post-tropical cyclone's track near Ireland
and the United Kingdom may be necessary in future advisories.

Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full
information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean
Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 35.2N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 38.0N 34.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 42.8N 28.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 48.5N 21.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/1200Z 53.5N 16.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1200Z 56.0N 7.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 

Ricardo Carvalho

Cumulonimbus
Registo
23 Jul 2015
Mensagens
3,108
Local
Azeitão/Sesimbra
Sem dúvida uma imagem de satélite que não se vê todos dos dias em águas portuguesas, já bem pertinho dos Açores , 750km :hmm: Nota.se nitidamente o ciclone na direcção NE , mas segundo os modelos o núcleo do mesmo passará a Oeste das ilhas das Flores, e do Corvo! Agora é só mesmo esperar , e prevenir ao máximo seguindo os concelhos das autoridades competentes!

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Iuri

Cumulus
Registo
24 Dez 2009
Mensagens
233
Local
Estoril
...LORENZO MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira *
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions beginning tonight.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria *
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service.

As of 11 a.m. AST/EDT, the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was located about 470 miles (755 km) southwest of Flores in the western Azores. It's moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). On the forecast track, the center is expected to pass near the western Azores early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts - a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

The next complete advisory will be issued by NHC at 5 p.m. AST/EDT with an intermediate advisory at 8 p.m. AST/EDT - www.hurricanes.gov
 

Orion

Furacão
Registo
5 Jul 2011
Mensagens
21,567
Local
Açores
Já não faz diferença estar a analisar exaustivamente os modelos. As alterações deverão ser pouco significativas.

Com alguma sorte, o núcleo passará ligeiramente a noroeste do previsto. Tendo em conta o contínuo enfraquecimento, se calhar nem será preciso muito para que os ventos equivalentes a cat. 2 (ou lá próximo) fiquem no oceano.

Também não vale a pena ficar muito fixado no olho do ciclone...

2019100106.006_radar-sfc_g2.gif


... já que deverá haver tempo mais que suficiente para que este se comece a desintegrar:

2019100106.018_radar-sfc_g2.gif

Logo às 24h:

201913N_1H.png


O ciclone desloca-se a 41 qph e continuará a acelerar. Comparativamente, o Ophelia passou ao largo de Sta. Maria a uns 44 qph.

Serão umas 8 a 12h bastante penosas e ao menos a 'sorte' aparentemente vai continuar. Os núcleos passam ao largo das ilhas.

Esperançosamente não haverão muitos danos. Boa sorte.
 
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