Furacão LORENZO (Atlântico 2019 #AL13)

luismeteo3

Furacão
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14 Dez 2015
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Fatima (320m)
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luismeteo3

Furacão
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14 Dez 2015
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Fatima (320m)
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

Lorenzo has completed its transition into a powerful extratropical
cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The
center has become exposed on the southwestern edge of the cloud
shield, and recent ASCAT data indicate that the system has acquired
frontal features. The initial intensity is set at 70 kt, which is
a little above the scatterometer data since there is typically a
low bias in that instrument at these wind speeds. The global
models suggest that the post-tropical cyclone will only gradually
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours as it approaches Ireland. A
faster rate of weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday when
the cyclone moves southeastward over Ireland and the United Kingdom.
The low should dissipate over southeastern England by late Friday.

The cyclone continues to move rapidly northeastward or 040/37 kt,
and this general motion should continue into Thursday. After that
time, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and then
southeastward within an area of weaker westerly flow. The global
model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is
in closest to the ECMWF model.

Future hazard information on Lorenzo for Ireland and the United
Kingdom can be found in products issued by Met Eireann and the
United Kingdom Met Office.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over
the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts from the following agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFD...

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
https://www.metoffice.gov.u...
sea/high-seas-forecast

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
http://www.meteofrance.com/...
grandlarge/metarea2

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 44.4N 25.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 03/0000Z 48.6N 20.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/1200Z 52.8N 14.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0000Z 54.0N 9.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1200Z 52.5N 3.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
 

MSantos

Moderação
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3 Out 2007
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Aveiras de Cima
Lorenzo perdeu características tropicais e é agora um ciclone pós-tropical, o NHC emitiu o seu ultimo aviso para o sistema que se dirige agora para a Irlanda:

000
WTNT33 KNHC 021435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

...LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.4N 25.8W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM WSW OF CORK IRELAND
ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM WSW OF GALWAY IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has
discontinued all warnings for the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Lorenzo was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 25.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph
(69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected
through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and
turn eastward and then southeastward Thursday night and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Lorenzo will move
near western Ireland on Thursday, then pass over Ireland and England
on Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the system is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. A faster rate
of weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over Ireland and
England.

Lorenzo is a very large cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
For hazard information for Lorenzo in Ireland and the United Kingdom
see products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met
Office.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-
sea/high-seas-forecast.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website
of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Brown

NHC
 

Wessel1985

Nimbostratus
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21 Set 2013
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Angra do Heroismo, Ilha Terceira, Açores
Boas ... Queria aqui deixar a minha força em especial para os florentinos e faialenses onde os problemas com o Lorenzo foram enormes ...

Que a reconstrução ocorra com determinação ...

Por aqui as coisas estão calmas.

Tivemos um período na madrugada muito agitado em termos de vento mas nada que já não tenhamos visto em outros temporais de inverno.

A ondulação essa sim foi à semelhança de outras ilhas bastante significativa mas felizmente sem os danos ocorridos nas Flores e Faial.

Infelizmente nas ilhas mais próximas ao Lorenzo as coisas foram mais agressivas mas ao menos não houve vítimas mortais a registar ...
 

Toby

Nimbostratus
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25 Mar 2011
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Alcobaca (160 m)
Some other wind gusts measured during Lorenzo’s passage

(courtesy of Jérôme Reynaud and NHC):

128 mph (206 km/h) at the Flores wind farm: unofficial value (private station, anemometer located in height, probably more than 10 m)

110 mph (177 km/h) at Lomba do Cácere (Pico Island)

107 mph (173 km/h) at Serra de Santa Bárbara (Terceira Island)

101 mph (163 km/h) at Corvo [IPMA station] (Corvo Island)

100 mph (161 km/h) at Pico do Alandroal (São Jorge Island)

90 mph (145 km/h) on Faial Island

88 mph (142 km/h) on Flores Island

70 mph (110 km/h) at Horta in the central Azores

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/H...inds-Heads-Towards-Ireland?cm_ven=cat6-widget

o valor de 206 km/h parece-me... com os valores oficiais.

Edit: parc éolien de Flores? Tem alguma informação?
 
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Éire

Cirrus
Registo
13 Mar 2008
Mensagens
61
Local
Kildare, Irlanda
É triste ver os danos nos Açores, mas espero que não haja víctimas. Agora aguardamos o ex-Lorenzo aqui na Irlanda durante a tarde e noite de
amanhã. O modelo Harmonie de nosso serviço meteorológico nacional, Met Éireann, mostra vento médio de força 9 e 10, mais forte na área costeira de Galway. A depressão se enfraquece atravessando o país durante a noite, pois por isso não esperamos mau tempo na capital na manhã de seixta-feira.

Aqui todos podem acompanhar observações atualizadas da rede de estações. Especialmente interessante serão Mace Head, Belmullet e Newport no litoral ocidental.

https://wow.met.ie/

harmonie-fri8bit.gif
 
Última edição:

LMCG

Cumulus
Registo
28 Dez 2009
Mensagens
479
Local
Ponta Delgada
Some other wind gusts measured during Lorenzo’s passage

(courtesy of Jérôme Reynaud and NHC):

128 mph (206 km/h) at the Flores wind farm: unofficial value (private station, anemometer located in height, probably more than 10 m)

110 mph (177 km/h) at Lomba do Cácere (Pico Island)

107 mph (173 km/h) at Serra de Santa Bárbara (Terceira Island)

101 mph (163 km/h) at Corvo [IPMA station] (Corvo Island)

100 mph (161 km/h) at Pico do Alandroal (São Jorge Island)

90 mph (145 km/h) on Faial Island

88 mph (142 km/h) on Flores Island

70 mph (110 km/h) at Horta in the central Azores

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/H...inds-Heads-Towards-Ireland?cm_ven=cat6-widget

o valor de 206 km/h parece-me... com os valores oficiais.

Edit: parc éolien de Flores? Tem alguma informação?

Tivemos nos PE da EDA rajadas máximas de:

257km/h no PE do Pico da Uuze em São Jorge;
256km/h no PE das Terras do Canto no Pico;
226km/h no PE da Boca da Vereda nas Flores (sujeito a confirmação pois perdemos comunicações com o PE, portanto as rajadas podem ter sido muito superiores);
188km/h no PE da Serra do Cume na Terceira;
145km/h no PE dos Graminhais em São Miguel;
Na Graciosa no PE da YOUNICOS atingiu os 195km/h.
Faial (é um SCADA diferente) não vi.
E Santa Maria também não vi, devem ter andado pelos 100/120km/h.

Cumprimentos,
Luís Guilherme.
 

Toby

Nimbostratus
Registo
25 Mar 2011
Mensagens
1,974
Local
Alcobaca (160 m)
Tivemos nos PE da EDA rajadas máximas de:

257km/h no PE do Pico da Uuze em São Jorge;
256km/h no PE das Terras do Canto no Pico;
226km/h no PE da Boca da Vereda nas Flores (sujeito a confirmação pois perdemos comunicações com o PE, portanto as rajadas podem ter sido muito superiores);
188km/h no PE da Serra do Cume na Terceira;
145km/h no PE dos Graminhais em São Miguel;
Na Graciosa no PE da YOUNICOS atingiu os 195km/h.
Faial (é um SCADA diferente) não vi.
E Santa Maria também não vi, devem ter andado pelos 100/120km/h.

Cumprimentos,
Luís Guilherme.

Boa noite,

Obrigado, como sou belga, tenho alguma hesitação em relação às abreviaturas:
PE?
EDA?
Obrigada.