Previsões longo prazo (Outono/Inverno 2019/2020)

Davidmpb

Super Célula
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7 Jul 2014
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Portalegre( 600m)/ Fundão
Segundo, as previsões mensais do ECM saídas hoje, aparece anomalia positiva no Sul em especial no Algarve na semana de 04/11 a 10/11.

https://www.met.hu/en/idojaras/elorejelzes/europai_elorejelzes/

Mas, existe uma tendência para o AA subir em latitude e ir para o UK e com isso poderá aparecer algumas depressões por aqui. :D
ECM interessante para o final do mês, cenário ainda longe de estar confirmado, mas pode ser que tenhamos sorte ou não.:D
ECM1-192.GIF
 


joralentejano

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21 Set 2015
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Arronches / Lisboa
o que significa estes gráficos?? desculpe a minha ignorância
Anomalia de precipitação prevista por diversos modelos entre Novembro e Janeiro.
 

joralentejano

Super Célula
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21 Set 2015
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Obrigado...e essas anomalias são positivas ou negativas??
Em 3 pode-se observar uma anomalia negativa algo vincada e nos restantes, não há sinal significativo havendo apenas uma ligeira anomalia positiva no extremo Noroeste. No entanto, penso que a ligeira anomalia negativa junto à costa a Sudoeste diz tudo. Basta clicar na imagem para ampliar e perceber melhor o que estou a dizer.
Resumidamente, será muito mau se estas previsões se concretizarem.
 

Dias Miguel

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26 Jan 2015
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Arctic Oscillation and Polar Vortex Analysis and Forecasts
October 28, 2019

Summary

  • The Arctic Oscillation (AO) is currently negative and is predicted to remain mostly negative for the next two weeks.
  • The current negative AO is reflective of mostly positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the Arctic and mixed pressure/geopotential height anomalies across the mid-latitudes. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is negative with positive pressure/geopotential height anomalies spread across Greenland and Iceland; and the NAO is predicted to briefly turn positive as geopotential height anomalies turn negative across Greenland. However longer term the NOA looks to turn negative once more as geopotential height anomalies reverse back to positive.
  • European temperatures are predicted to be on a bit of a rollercoaster as the NAO vacillates between negative and positive the next couple of weeks. Early on temperature anomalies are predicted to be mostly negative across Europe including the United Kingdom (UK) then turn mostly positive before once again turning negative. The one region that could remain consistently cold throughout the period is Scandinavia.
  • Currently temperatures are mostly above normal across Asia as ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies dominate the continent. However, over the next two weeks, troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies with below normal temperatures mostly confined to Northwest Russia will become more widespread across Northern Asia especially Siberia while temperatures remain mostly above normal across Southern Asia.
  • Ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies anchored across Alaska and the Gulf of Alaska over the next two weeks will force downstream troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies with normal to below normal temperatures initially over western North America with more ridging/positive geopotential height anomalies with normal to above normal temperatures for eastern North America. However, over the next two weeks, the downstream troughing/negative geopotential height anomalies with normal to below normal temperatures will slide east into Eastern Canada and the Eastern United States (US).
  • In the Impacts section I share more thoughts about the upcoming pattern and the Northern Hemisphere (NH) winter and the behavior of the polar vortex (PV).
Mais informações em: https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/
 

Maria Papoila

Nimbostratus
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27 Set 2011
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  • European temperatures are predicted to be on a bit of a rollercoaster as the NAO vacillates between negative and positive the next couple of weeks. Early on temperature anomalies are predicted to be mostly negative across Europe including the United Kingdom (UK) then turn mostly positive before once again turning negative. The one region that could remain consistently cold throughout the period is Scandinavia.
Então vai ser assim húmido, quente e pastoso - tropical, portanto?!