Ciclone Tropical DEZASSEIS (Atlântico 2019 #AL16)

Tópico em 'Tempo Tropical' iniciado por luismeteo3 17 Out 2019 às 16:15.

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    ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...


    Special Message from NHC Issued 17 Oct 2019 14:27 UTC
    NHC will initiate advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 10 AM CDT.
     
    StormRic e Wessel1985 gostaram disto.
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    000
    WTNT31 KNHC 171456
    TCPAT1

    BULLETIN
    Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Advisory Number 1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
    1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

    ...DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EXPECTED TO
    DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR
    TONIGHT...
    ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF
    COAST...

    SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...22.4N 95.7W
    ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
    ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from the Mississippi/Alabama
    border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida.

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from Grand Isle, Louisiana to
    the Mouth of the Pearl River.

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect east of the Ochlockonee River to
    Yankeetown, Florida.

    A Storm Surge Watch is in effect from Indian Pass, Florida, to
    Clearwater, Florida.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Ochlockonee River, Florida
    * Grand Isle, Louisiana to the Mouth of the Pearl River

    A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
    * East of the Ochlockonee River to Yankeetown, Florida

    A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
    * Indian Pass to Clearwater, Florida
     
    StormRic e Wessel1985 gostaram disto.
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    ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Discussion Number 2
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
    400 PM CDT Thu Oct 17 2019

    The complicated weather situation over the Gulf of Mexico described
    in the previous advisory continues to evolve. Recent
    scatterometer data shows that the tropical disturbance in the
    southwestern Gulf has a circulation elongated north-northeast to
    south-southwest, with winds of 30-35 kt occurring in the
    southwestern quadrant. However, the system currently has neither
    sufficient convection or a well-enough defined center to be
    designated a tropical or subtropical cyclone. The disturbance
    remains in close proximity to a mid- to upper-level low moving
    across southern Texas and northeastern Mexico and a frontal system
    over the northern and northwestern Gulf. One change from the
    previous global model guidance is the the ECMWF and GFS have backed
    off of their forecasts of a separate baroclinic low to the north of
    the disturbance. Instead, the global models are in reasonable
    agreement that the disturbance, along with whatever vorticity
    centers form along the front, will be part of a large low pressure
    area that will affect portions of the northern Gulf coast and the
    southeastern United States.

    The initial motion of the disturbance is now 020/8. There is little
    change in the forecast track philosophy, the track guidance, or the
    NHC forecast track. The system should soon turn northeastward in
    the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the track
    model guidance agrees on a continued northeastward motion through at
    least 72 h. The forecast track, which is in best agreement with the
    HCCA corrected consensus model, brings the system across the
    southeastern United States between 36-72 h, and then has it moving
    into the Atlantic east of the mid-Atlantic States.

    Gradual strengthening is expected as strong upper-level divergence
    caused by the trough partly prevails over strong vertical shear.
    Based on this, the intensity forecast again calls for gradual
    strengthening until landfall in agreement with the global model
    forecasts. While it remains unlikely that the system will develop
    into a classical tropical cyclone, the ECMWF and GFS models suggest
    enough organized convection will develop before landfall to make the
    system a tropical or subtropical cyclone. After landfall, the
    cyclone is forecast to become fully extratropical and gradually
    weaken.

    Regardless of the exact evolution, portions of the northern coast of
    the Gulf of Mexico will experience strong winds, locally heavy
    rains, and storm surge Friday and Saturday. Similar impacts are
    expected across portions of the Atlantic coast of the southeastern
    United States Saturday and Sunday.

    Key Messages:

    1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation of
    up to 5 feet above ground level beginning Friday along the Florida
    Gulf Coast from Indian Pass to Clearwater, where a Storm Surge
    Warning is in effect. Residents in these areas should follow advice
    given by local officials.

    2. Tropical storm force winds are likely by Friday afternoon along
    portions of the central and eastern Gulf Coast, where tropical storm
    watches and warnings are in effect. Regardless of the exact track
    and intensity of the system, these winds will cover a large area,
    especially east of the center.

    3. Isolated flash flooding is possible along the central and eastern
    Gulf Coast, mainly Friday and Friday night. Since soils across the
    southeast are dry, the risk of flash flooding will be confined to
    the immediate coast where heavier rainfall is possible.

    4. Wind and coastal flooding hazards along the U.S. East Coast will
    be covered by non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local NWS
    offices, since the system is expected to lose any tropical
    characteristics after it moves inland along the Gulf Coast.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 17/2100Z 22.9N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
    12H 18/0600Z 24.5N 92.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
    24H 18/1800Z 26.9N 89.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
    36H 19/0600Z 29.3N 86.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
    48H 19/1800Z 31.4N 84.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    72H 20/1800Z 35.6N 76.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    96H 21/1800Z 37.5N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 22/1800Z 38.5N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

    $$
    Forecaster Beven

    NNNN
     
    Wessel1985 e StormRic gostaram disto.
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    7:00 AM CDT Fri Oct 18

    Location: 25.1°N 91.2°W

    Moving: NE at 21 mph

    Min pressure: 1004 mb

    Max sustained: 40 mph
     
    StormRic gostou disto.
  11. luismeteo3

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    BULLETIN
    Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL162019
    700 AM CDT Fri Oct 18 2019

    ...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
    ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...


    SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...25.1N 91.2W
    ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
     
    Wessel1985 e StormRic gostaram disto.
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