The Antarctic Peninsula had been warming since at least the 1950s, when the first weather stations were set up.
But a shift in prevailing winds has resulted in it cooling since 1998 — although this region is still warmer than it was when observations began.
“What we are seeing is natural climatic variability overriding global warming,” says
John Turner at the British Antarctic Survey (BAS), who led the study.
The peninsula has cooled by roughly 0.5 °C per decade, which is similar to the rate at which it warmed in the preceding five decades (see graph below). This cooling will be temporary. Even if the winds don’t change again soon, global warming will overwhelm their effect in the coming decades.