Furacão JOAQUIN (Atlântico 2015 #AL11)

MSantos

Staff
Registo
3 Out 2007
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Azambuja / Mte. Barca (Coruche)
Formou-se no Atlântico o 10º sistema nomeado do ano, a TT JOAQUIN, neste momento possui ventos de 65km/h com rajadas mais fortes e não ameaça populações costeiras. Desloca-se para Oeste mas brevemente deverá iniciar um movimento para Norte.

...JOAQUIN MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
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Mais informações: NHC
 

MSantos

Staff
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3 Out 2007
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...JOAQUIN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WHILE DRIFTING WESTWARD...
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LOCATION...26.5N 70.8W
ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
 

Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
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Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
TS Joaquin está neste momento em um ambiente favorável a intensificação e pode de acordo com a maior parte dos modelos se tornar um grande furacão até sábado.

O ciclone pode afetar as Bahamas como furacão entre essa quarta e quinta e depois seguir em direção a Costa Leste americana.

No momento apenas o modelo europeu não mostra o ciclone afetando os EUA.
CMC, NAVGEM, HWRF, UKMET e GFS mostram o landfall entre Carolina do Norte,Virgínia e Delaware.


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MSantos

Staff
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3 Out 2007
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Azambuja / Mte. Barca (Coruche)
JOAQUIN já é furacão! (Peço à moderação para mudar titulo do tópico)

JOAQUIN fortaleceu-se e tem agora ventos de furacão na ordem de 130km/h com rajadas mais fortes, as Bahamas estão sob em alerta de furacão, Já que o JOAQUIN vai fazer uma tangente a algumas ilhas do arquipélago antes de iniciar o deslocamento para Norte. O NHC prevê que o JOAQUIN continue a fortalecer-se e poderá tornar-se "major" (categoria 3 ou superior) podendo ser perigoso e destrutivo para as Bahamas.
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O JOAQUIN não tem, para já, um campo de ventos com intensidade de furacão muito vasto (55km desde o centro), mas apresenta um aspecto bastante compacto:
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Mais informações
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2015/Hurricane-Joaquin?map=sat
 

Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
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3,766
Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
Modelo europeu mantém o cenário de recurvo de Joaquin e todos os demais modelos uma ameaça a Costa Leste dos EUA.
Joaquin mantém ventos sustentados de 140 km/h e pressão mínima de 968 mbar e neste momento segue se intensificando, podendo até o final desta quarta se tornar categoria 2 na minha opinião.
Fortes chuvas já afetam algumas ilhas das Bahamas. As bandas de nebulosidade do ciclone também estão provocando chuvas no Haiti, República Dominicana e Cuba.

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StormRic

Furacão
Registo
23 Jun 2014
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Póvoa de S.Iria (alt. 140m)
Rápida intensificação do furacão, com uma aparência interessante:

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Os modelos estão em desacordo quanto à trajectória, todos excepto o ECMWF levam-no a a chegar aos estados das Carolinas passando muito a oeste das Bermudas.

000
WTNT41 KNHC 302055
TCDAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 PM EDT WED SEP 30 2015

There has been little change in the organization of Joaquin during
the past several hours. While the hurricane continues to produce
cloud tops colder than -80C in the eyewall, the eye has not become
better defined since the last advisory. Satellite intensity
estimates are 77 kt from both TAFB and SAB, so the advisory
intensity is now 75 kt.

The initial motion is 225/7. The shortwave ridge causing this
motion is expected to weaken during the next 24-48 hours as a strong
deep-layer trough develops over the southeastern United States.
Thus, a generally southwestward motion is expected for the next 36
hours or so, followed by a turn toward the north as the trough
becomes the dominant steering mechanism. There is an increased
disagreement between the GFS, UKMET, Canadian, and NAVGEM models
versus the ECMWF since the last advisory. The ECMWF has continued
its forecast of showing a northeastward motion after 72 hours,
taking Joaquin just west of Bermuda and out to sea. The other
models have all shifted their forecasts to the left and now
call for landfall in the Carolinas and the mid-Atlantic states,
followed by merger with the baroclinic trough. Given the shift in
the non-ECMWF models, a major westward adjustment has been made to
the forecast track at 96 and 120 hours, bringing the center of
Joaquin near or over portions of the mid-Atlantic states. Due to
the use of the ECMWF in the consensus models, the new track lies
near the various consensus models. However, it lies well to the
east of the GFS and the other similar models. The NOAA G-IV jet is
currently flying a synoptic surveillance mission, which, along with
special rawinsonde launches, hopefully will reduce the spread of the
guidance.

There is little change to the intensity forecast philosophy since
the last advisory. Joaquin is expected to remain in an environment
of moderate northeasterly vertical shear for the next 24-36 hours,
possibly including strong winds seen at 400 mb in recent dropsondes
from the G-IV aircraft. However, since it has been steadily
strengthening in such an environment, there is no obvious reason to
think it will stop doing so. After 36 hours, the hurricane is
likely to move into an area of divergent southerly upper-level winds
associated with the eastern U. S. trough. While there is
uncertainty as to how much shear should occur, it is expected that
additional intensification could occur through at least 48 hours.
Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for Joaquin to peak as a
major hurricane in 48-72 hours, and it is possible it could be
stronger than currently forecast. After 72 hours, increasing shear,
cold air intrusion, and land interaction should cause weakening and
the start of extratropical transition.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Preparations to protect life and property within the warning
areas in the Bahamas should be rushed to completion.

2. A significant adjustment to the forecast has been made this
afternoon, and this shows an increased threat to the mid-Atlantic
states and the Carolinas. However, confidence in the details of the
forecast after 72 hours remains low, since we have one normally
excellent model that keeps Joaquin far away from the United States
east coast. The range of possible outcomes is still large, and
includes the possibility of a major hurricane landfall in the
Carolinas.

3. Every effort is being made to provide the forecast models with
as much data as possible. The NOAA G-IV jet has begun a series of
missions in the storm environment, and the National Weather Service
is launching extra balloon soundings.

4. Because landfall, if it occurs, is still more than three days
away, it is too early to talk about specific wind, rain, or surge
impacts from Joaquin in the United States. Even if Joaquin stays
well out to sea, strong onshore winds will create minor to moderate
coastal flooding along the coasts of the mid-Atlantic and
northeastern states through the weekend.

5. A hurricane watch for a portion of the U.S. coast could be
required as early as Thursday evening.

6. Many areas of the eastern U.S. are currently experiencing heavy
rains and gusty winds associated with a frontal system. This
inclement weather is expected to continue over the next few days,
which could complicate preparations for Joaquin should it head
toward the coast, and greatly exacerbate the impacts from the
hurricane. Heavy rains are likely to continue over these areas
even if the center of Joaquin stays out to sea.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 24.3N 73.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 24.0N 73.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 23.9N 74.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 24.5N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 25.8N 75.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 30.5N 74.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 36.0N 75.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 38.5N 76.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

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Temperaturas superficiais oceânicas favoráveis:

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Última edição:

Thomar

Cumulonimbus
Registo
19 Dez 2007
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Cabanas - Palmela (75m)
Segundo o último aviso emitido pelo NHC o furacão (cat. 3) poderá aumentar mais um bocadinho de intensidade até amanhã.
Não há mudanças significativas nas últimas previsões.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2015

...MAJOR HURRICANE JOAQUIN WILL BATTER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN THROUGH
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 73.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF SAMANA CAYS BAHAMAS
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES

Fonte: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/010845.shtml?
 

Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
Mensagens
3,766
Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
Joaquin está próximo da categoria 4. Voo de reconhecimento encontrou ventos sustentados de 205 km/h e pressão mínima de 936 mbar.

Há registro de inundações em algumas ilhas das Bahamas e as condições do tempo devem continuar a piorar na região. Acumulados superiores a 500 mm podem ser registrados nas ilhas de Long Island, Acklins, Crooked Island e San Salvador. Rajadas de ventos superiores a 120 km/h já foram registradas nestas ilhas.

GFS, UKMET e ECMWF agora estão praticamente em acordo, do ciclone afetando duramente as Bahamas e depois seguindo para o mar. CMC, NAVGEM, HWRF e GFDL segue mostrando o landfall na região das Carolinas.