A depressão tropical nº19 evoluiu para a Tempestade Tropical Richard, sendo o 17º sistema tropical a receber nome no Atlântico este ano, tornando a temporada em curso a 3ª desde que há registos a ver uma tempestade "baptizada" com a letra R (ver caixa). Isto não significa que estejamos já perante a 3ª temporada com maior número de sistemas de intensidade igual ou superior a Tempestade Tropical, visto que a posteriori tem acontecido sistemas serem reavaliados e recategorizados, como aconteceu, por exemplo, em 1969 com os sistemas #10 (furacão), #11 (tempestade tropical), #16 (tempestade tropical) e #17 (furacão). Curiosamente, os três últimos formaram-se e dissiparam-se "algures no Atlântico" e passaram despercebidos (curiosamente, as #11 e #16 andaram bem perto dos Açores e o #17 atravessou o arquipélago como tempestade tropical...). O Richard tem para já um movimento errático e é difícil prever o seu trajecto, mas o NHC prevê que se fortaleça gradualmente e se torne um furacão dentro das próximas 48h. Fonte: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Atlantic_hurricane_season 000 WTNT44 KNHC 212034 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 500 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010 THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE WITH RICHARD DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT APPEARS TO BE JUST WEST OF A PERSISTENT BALL OF CONVECTION. THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...A SIGN OF THE DRIER AIR IN THAT VICINITY. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED...OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE STRETCHED AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF CURRENT MOTION IS ABOUT 155/3. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN STEERING THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO. HOWEVER... THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE STORM EVENTUALLY TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN A DAY OR SO...THEY ARE IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO VARYING RIDGE STRENGTHS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED WELL TOWARD THE LEFT...AFTER MOVING TOWARD THE RIGHT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...A LUXURY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE...THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY NOW IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND LITTLE CHANGE WILL BE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST. THE NEW 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS CLOSE ENOUGH TO HONDURAS TO WARRANT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH. CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTER....WITH CIRRUS BEGINNING TO FAN OUT IN MOST QUADRANTS. THE MAIN INHIBITOR TO FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLY THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN TO THE NORTHWEST OF RICHARD. HOWEVER...MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS MOIST EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO WEAKER SHEAR CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM LAND...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS STILL STRENGTHEN THIS SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE TRACK UNCERTAINTY AND THE HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF EARLIER LAND INTERACTION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.0N 80.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/0600Z 15.8N 80.6W 45 KT 24HR VT 22/1800Z 15.7N 81.1W 50 KT 36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.9N 81.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 86.0W 80 KT 96HR VT 25/1800Z 19.5N 88.5W 40 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/1800Z 21.5N 89.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
Richard torna-se furacão no mar das Caraíbas A tempestade tropical Richard intensificou-se e torna-se, assim, o 10º furacão da temporada 2010 no Atlântico Norte. A ocorrência de 10 furacões numa temporada, nesta região, não sucedia desde a singular época de 2005. O NHC prevê a intensificação do furacão até ao landfall. 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241448 TCDAT4 HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010 1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010 OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE INDICATE THAT RICHARD HAS INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 74 KT...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE AREA AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. BELIZE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENT...RICHARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IS ABOVE THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES LAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...290/10. ASIDE FROM BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. RICHARD SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AFTERWARDS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.9N 86.9W 75 KT 12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 88.4W 85 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.8N 90.2W 55 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 26/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 26/1200Z 19.1N 93.0W 25 KT...INLAND 72HR VT 27/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W 20 KT...OVER WATER 96HR VT 28/1200Z 21.5N 95.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
