Furacão RICHARD (Atlântico 2010 #AL19)

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A depressão tropical nº19 evoluiu para a Tempestade Tropical Richard, sendo o 17º sistema tropical a receber nome no Atlântico este ano, tornando a temporada em curso a 3ª desde que há registos a ver uma tempestade "baptizada" com a letra R (ver caixa). Isto não significa que estejamos já perante a 3ª temporada com maior número de sistemas de intensidade igual ou superior a Tempestade Tropical, visto que a posteriori tem acontecido sistemas serem reavaliados e recategorizados, como aconteceu, por exemplo, em 1969 com os sistemas #10 (furacão), #11 (tempestade tropical), #16 (tempestade tropical) e #17 (furacão). Curiosamente, os três últimos formaram-se e dissiparam-se "algures no Atlântico" e passaram despercebidos (curiosamente, as #11 e #16 andaram bem perto dos Açores e o #17 atravessou o arquipélago como tempestade tropical...).

O Richard tem para já um movimento errático e é difícil prever o seu trajecto, mas o NHC prevê que se fortaleça gradualmente e se torne um furacão dentro das próximas 48h.

On October 16, the National Hurricane Center began to monitor an area of disturbed weather in association with a weak trough of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. The area lingered along the Central-American coastlines for several days, changing little in organization as it gradually broadened. However, the system eventually began to better organize itself as it remained within an environment with favorable conditions aloft. On October 19, observations from a reconnaissance aircraft indicated that a broad low-level circulation had formed; therefore, a high chance of tropical cyclone development within 48 hours was issued. Further organization ensued as the system generally drifted eastward, and the next day, it was designated as Tropical Depression Nineteen south of the Cayman Islands. The depression was upgraded to a tropical storm on the morning of October 21 shortly afterward. Upon being upgraded, it was given the name Richard, marking only the third occasion in the Atlantic basin that a storm was given a name starting with the letter 'R' — the other two were Hurricane Roxanne of 1995 and Hurricane Rita of 2005.
Fonte: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Atlantic_hurricane_season

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000
WTNT44 KNHC 212034
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
500 PM EDT THU OCT 21 2010

THERE HAS NOT BEEN A LOT OF CHANGE WITH RICHARD DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT APPEARS
TO BE JUST WEST OF A PERSISTENT BALL OF CONVECTION. THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...A SIGN
OF THE DRIER AIR IN THAT VICINITY. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE ESTIMATES
HAVE INCREASED...OVERALL THE SYSTEM LOOKS A LITTLE STRETCHED AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE AREA THIS EVENING...WHICH
WILL PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM.

THE BEST ESTIMATE OF CURRENT MOTION IS ABOUT 155/3. A TROUGH OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN HAS BEEN STEERING
THE SYSTEM SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE PAST DAY OR SO.
HOWEVER... THIS TROUGH IS IN THE PROCESS OF LIFTING OUT OF THE
AREA...WHICH WILL ALLOW A RIDGE TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
WHILE THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE STORM
EVENTUALLY TURNING BACK TOWARD THE WEST IN A DAY OR SO...THEY ARE
IN RATHER POOR AGREEMENT AFTER THAT TIME DUE TO VARYING RIDGE
STRENGTHS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. ALL OF THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS
SHIFTED WELL TOWARD THE LEFT...AFTER MOVING TOWARD THE RIGHT
OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE ERRATIC BEHAVIOR OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...A
LUXURY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT HAVE...THIS IS A LOW
CONFIDENCE TRACK FORECAST. THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS ACTUALLY NOW IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK...AND LITTLE CHANGE WILL
BE MADE TO THE NHC FORECAST. THE NEW 48-HOUR FORECAST POINT IS
CLOSE ENOUGH TO HONDURAS TO WARRANT A TROPICAL STORM WATCH.

CONVECTION HAS BEEN GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATING NEAR THE CENTER....WITH
CIRRUS BEGINNING TO FAN OUT IN MOST QUADRANTS. THE MAIN INHIBITOR TO
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS PROBABLY THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT SEEN TO
THE NORTHWEST OF RICHARD. HOWEVER...MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS MOIST EASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AND THE
CYCLONE MOVES INTO WEAKER SHEAR CONDITIONS. SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE IF THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAR ENOUGH AWAY
FROM LAND...AND THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS STILL STRENGTHEN THIS
SYSTEM INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE IN A FEW DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST WILL
REMAIN CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...MOSTLY BECAUSE OF THE TRACK
UNCERTAINTY AND THE HIGHER POSSIBILITY OF EARLIER LAND INTERACTION.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 21/2100Z 16.0N 80.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 22/0600Z 15.8N 80.6W 45 KT
24HR VT 22/1800Z 15.7N 81.1W 50 KT
36HR VT 23/0600Z 15.9N 81.9W 60 KT
48HR VT 23/1800Z 16.3N 83.0W 65 KT
72HR VT 24/1800Z 17.5N 86.0W 80 KT
96HR VT 25/1800Z 19.5N 88.5W 40 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 26/1800Z 21.5N 89.0W 35 KT...OVER WATER
 

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Richard torna-se furacão no mar das Caraíbas

A tempestade tropical Richard intensificou-se e torna-se, assim, o 10º furacão da temporada 2010 no Atlântico Norte. A ocorrência de 10 furacões numa temporada, nesta região, não sucedia desde a singular época de 2005.

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O NHC prevê a intensificação do furacão até ao landfall.

000
WTNT44 KNHC 241448
TCDAT4
HURRICANE RICHARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192010
1000 AM CDT SUN OCT 24 2010

OBSERVATIONS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE INDICATE THAT RICHARD HAS
INTENSIFIED TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. THE PLANE REPORTED MAXIMUM 850
MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 84 KT AND MAXIMUM SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE
WINDS OF 74 KT...SO THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED OVER THE AREA AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS
BECOME QUITE SYMMETRIC WITH WELL-DEFINED UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
BELIZE RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A NEARLY CLOSED EYEWALL. GIVEN THE
FAVORABLE CYCLONE STRUCTURE AND ENVIRONMENT...RICHARD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO IS ABOVE THE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE TRAVERSES
LAND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WHEN RICHARD EMERGES INTO THE
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT RE-INTENSIFICATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...290/10. ASIDE FROM BEING
SLIGHTLY FASTER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...NO SIGNIFICANT
ALTERATIONS WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK FORECAST. RICHARD SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AFTERWARDS...THE WEAKENING CYCLONE SHOULD BE STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 24/1500Z 16.9N 86.9W 75 KT
12HR VT 25/0000Z 17.4N 88.4W 85 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 25/1200Z 17.8N 90.2W 55 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 26/0000Z 18.4N 91.7W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 26/1200Z 19.1N 93.0W 25 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 27/1200Z 20.5N 94.5W 20 KT...OVER WATER
96HR VT 28/1200Z 21.5N 95.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120HR VT 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/ROBERTS
 

AnDré

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Odivelas (140m) / Várzea da Serra (900m)
O furação RICHARD está agora a fazer landfall na costa do Belize:

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maximum sustained winds...90 mph...150 km/hr
present movement...WNW or 285 degrees at 13 mph...20 km/hr
minimum central pressure...981 mb...28.97 inches