Política e economia internacional

[Orion]

Concluindo o seguimento da cidade de Roma. Para o ano há mais... literalmente:

Matteo Renzi's new Italian government on Friday approved an emergency decree to bail out Rome city council whose mayor had warned the capital would have to halt essential services unless it got financial help.

The decree transfers 570 million euros ($787 million) to the city to pay the salaries of municipal workers and ensure services such as public transport and garbage collection.

(...)

Rome's finances have been in a parlous state for years and it has debts of almost 14 billion euros which it plans to pay off gradually by 2048.

The city of some 2.6 million people has been bailed out by the central government each year since 2008.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/28/us-italy-politics-rome-idUSBREA1R1OD20140228

 

[Paelagius]

Pelo que sei na zona da Crimeia a maioria da população é de etnia russa e na zona Leste da Ucrânia uma parte dos habitantes falam russo.

"A Crimeia é habitada por 60 por cento de cidadãos de origem russa e foi oferecida à Ucrânia em 1954, quando pertencia à URSS, por Nikita Khrushchev. Em 1991, a Ucrânia tornou-se independente. A Crimeia obteve, mais tarde, o estatuto de região autónoma." mais informação em Euronews

 

[Agreste]

E eu não duvido que muitos conflitos internos em alguns países (incluindo Venezuela) são incitados pelos países ditos "de democracia, liberdade e prosperidade".

Quando muitas das vezes são eles os próprios assassinos a enviarem a conta para o lado contrário. Voltando à Coreia, a Jiseul ou à Bodo League. Há muita gente que parece ser doutorada em Liberdade e Democracia.

 

[Agreste]

Quote of the day from US secretary of state John Kerry: 'You just don’t in the 21st century behave in 19th-century fashion by invading another country on completely trumped up pretext'

O canalhismo ocidental.

 

[Orion]

Às vezes vê-se os políticos a dizerem verdades. Só se enganou no tempo verbal:

President Obama said Monday that Russia is "on the wrong side of history" on Ukraine, and warned that the U.S. and its allies are examining steps to "isolate" the country -- as western leaders scramble to convince Vladimir Putin to stand down.

Obama, before a meeting in Washington with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, said the world largely is in agreement that Russia is "in violation of international law."

He said Moscow's actions are deeply troubling, and said this would be a "costly proposition" for Russia.

"We are examining a whole series of steps -- economic, diplomatic -- that will isolate Russia," Obama said.

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/201...a-on-ukraine-though-few-back-military-option/

Como é hábito há sempre aquelas notícias falsas para exaltar ânimos:

A frota russa do Mar Negro, baseada na Crimeia, negou esta segunda-feira estar a planear um ataque às posições militares ucranianas naquela península, afirmando que o alegado ultimato para que as forças ucranianas se rendam é um "disparate".

A agência noticiosa Interfax avançava esta tarde que a Marinha da Rússia teria feito um ultimato à Ucrânia e garantia que se às 5h da madrugada locais [3h em Lisboa] desta terça-feira as forças militares ucranianas na Crimeia não se tivessem rendido, dava-se início a uma intervenção militar russa.

http://sol.sapo.pt/inicio/Internacional/Interior.aspx?content_id=100558

Os dirigentes russos não são estúpidos. Sabem perfeitamente que a máquina de propaganda está a diabolizá-los. Não vão dar mais motivos. Mas ao mesmo tempo estão a proteger a sua base que, curiosamente ou talvez não, é fulcral:

The Crimean port of Sevastopol, home of the Black Sea fleet, is vital to Russia’s naval power in the Mediterranean and beyond. As such the base is of critical importance as Russia seeks to regain some of the global clout that has been dwindling since the disintegration of the Soviet empire.

(...)

The base’s significance was highlighted during the 2008 war with Georgia, when the Russian fleet staged blockades in the Black Sea and was used to launch amphibious landings. It has also proved its usefulness to Russia in the Libya crisis, anti-piracy missions in the Indian Ocean and Moscow’s role in dismantling Syria’s chemical weapons.

After Syria’s civil war forced Russia to stop using its naval base in the Syrian port of Tartus last year, Sevastopol became even more crucial.

(...)

Moscow is already building naval infrastructure at Novorossiysk, including a deep sea terminal. But while the Russian navy has started using the port for smaller naval vessels and a supply point, this is arguably still at an embryonic stage.

“Novorossiysk is not an ideal location because it does not have the natural deep sea harbour Sevastopol has, and the commercial port operations limit the available space,” says a foreign military official in Moscow. “But it is the only option if they are forced out of Sevastopol.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1f749b24-9f8c-11e3-b6c7-00144feab7de.html

Mas pronto, no fim do dia é para espalhar a democracia, felicidade, prosperidade e outras tretas.

 

[Orion]

Euro-area banks face uncertainty over how much they’ll have to pay into a planned 55 billion-euro ($76 billion) fund for saving or shuttering lenders as lawmakers wrangle over the rules for contributions.

The industry-financed fund is a key part of plans to build a Single Resolution Mechanism for handling failing euro-area banks. European Union member states are tussling with the European Parliament and among themselves over how money should be paid in.

“It all seems to be getting far too complicated,” Sharon Bowles, chairwoman of the parliament’s Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, said by e-mail. Some ideas being discussed by governments could “end up penalizing or advantaging some bank models and therefore countries,” leading to political clashes between nations, she said.

The SRM is part of an EU effort to prevent future financial crises by pooling responsibility for banks. The legislation to establish it must be approved by national governments and the European Parliament to take effect. A race is on to have the law on the books before the assembly adjourns for elections in May.

Negotiators for the parliament and officials from Greece, which holds the rotating EU presidency and represents member states, resume talks on the SRM tomorrow. EU ambassadors meet to review progress on the bill the following day.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...ark-on-payment-rules-for-resolution-fund.html

Bancos falidos a descontar para se salvarem em caso de falência

 

[Orion]

Fazendo alusão à guerra económica invisível à maioria:

An adviser to Russian President Vladimir Putin said Tuesday that authorities would issue general advice to dump US government bonds in the event of Russian companies and individuals being targeted by sanctions over events in Ukraine.

Sergei Glazyev said the United States would be the first to suffer in the event of any sanctions regime.

“The Americans are threatening Russia with sanctions and pulling the EU into a trade and economic war with Russia,” Glazyev said. “Most of the sanctions against Russia will bring harm to the United States itself, because as far as trade relations with the United States go, we don’t depend on them in any way.”

Glazyev noted that Russia is a creditor to the United States.

"We hold a decent amount of treasury bonds – more than $200 billion – and if the United States dares to freeze accounts of Russian businesses and citizens, we can no longer view America as a reliable partner,” he said. “We will encourage everybody to dump US Treasury bonds, get rid of dollars as an unreliable currency and leave the US market.”

According to US Treasury data from the end of 2013, Russian investments in US government bonds total around $139 billion out of a total of $5.8 trillion of US debt held in foreign hands.

http://en.ria.ru/business/20140304/...umping-US-Bonds-In-Reaction-to-Sanctions.html

Como já escrevi, não só a China não está interessada em aumentar a compra de Obrigações Americanas como:

China's holdings of U.S. Treasuries fell by $47.8 billion in December, the biggest one-month drop in two years, according to the latest figures from the U.S. Treasury. China remains the biggest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries. The decline in its purchases comes at the same time that the Federal Reserve is pulling back on its own purchases of government debt, a withdrawal of stimulus popularly known as tapering.

But other foreign countries are stepping into the breach, pushing the volume of Treasuries held outside the U.S. to a record high. Belgium actually posted an increase in holdings greater than China's decline, while Hong Kong, Ireland, Norway, South Korea and the Netherlands all significantly boosted their holdings as well.

http://money.cnn.com/2014/02/19/investing/china-treasuries/

A economia americana vai-se aguentando enquanto dólares forem necessários para as trocas mundiais. Quando isso deixar de acontecer, a moeda irá ser brutalmente desvalorizada com consequências devastadoras.

 

[Orion]

Em Chipre, foi aprovada a mesma fórmula do FMI de sempre:

The Cypriot parliament has approved a roadmap for privatisations, averting a showdown with international lenders insisting on state sell-offs as part of a $13.77bn bailout package.

In a show of hands on Tuesday, 30 politicians in the 56-member parliament endorsed a guideline for asset sales, a day before a deadline for approval was set to expire on March 5.

The parliament's rejection of an earlier privatisation motion on February 28 risked derailing the bailout accord that was brokered with the European Union and International Monetary Fund in March 2013.

Cyprus must raise $1.93bn from privatisations as a condition of the bailout, or rescue money will not be distributed.

Left-wing parties had thrown out the bill over concerns that workers' rights would not be safeguarded.

Finance Minister Harris Georgiades applauded the vote which he said ensured that the country could stay afloat and on a path towards stability.

"Apart from being an obligation, the privatisation programme is also an opportunity to attract investment, bolster efficiency and competitiveness and shed the weight of state control on significant sectors of the economy,'' said Georgiades.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/europ...es-privatisation-bill-201434131610801666.html

O argumento é sempre o mesmo. As grandes multinacionais é que deliram com estas notícias.

Ainda na Ucrânia, como a desgraça de uns é o benefício de outros:

Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine bolsters the case for easing restrictions on exports of the U.S.’s booming natural gas production, according to energy analysts and industry groups.

Russia, the world’s second-largest producer of natural gas after the U.S., has twice since 2006 cut supplies of the fuel to Ukraine, a conduit for energy to Europe. Greater access to U.S. supplies would blunt the ability of Russia to use energy as a weapon, according to supporters of lifting export curbs.

“This is a geopolitical fulcrum that we could be utilizing if we didn’t have this protectionist constraint on U.S. energy,” Christopher Guith, vice president for policy at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce’s Institute for 21st Century Energy, said in a phone interview.

(...)

“The U.S. needs to get its LNG exports in place sooner rather than later,” Zach Allen, president of Pan Eurasian Enterprises Inc., a Raleigh, North Carolina-based tracker of LNG cargoes, said in a phone interview. “Any supply source of LNG to increase the resilience of European markets to short-term swings would be a good thing.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...lding-support-for-u-s-natural-gas-export.html

 

[Agreste]

Numa linguagem financeira que eles percebem rapidamente: a rússia é grande de mais para cair, bloquear ou tornar pária.

 

[Orion]

A Casa Branca antecipou uma descida do défice norte-americano na próxima década e um crescimento moderado da economia, no dia da apresentação do orçamento para o ano fiscal de 2015.

O orçamento prevê que a economia norte-americana cresça 3,1% este ano e 3,4% no próximo, com a inflação a manter-se controlada, subindo para apenas 2% em 2015.

«Apoiando-se nos avanços já conseguidos, as medidas de redução do défice orçamental são mais do que suficientes para atingir o objetivo de estabilização do peso da dívida no PIB (Produto Interno Bruto)», indica o documento.

O orçamento projeta um avanço estável das receitas, estimando que o governo atinja um superavit primário (despesa, excluindo o serviço da dívida) em 2018.

O orçamento da Casa Branca poderá ser bloqueado pelo Congresso, já que contém aumentos de impostos e da despesa que os Republicanos já rejeitaram.

Mas contempla a perspetiva de que o défice orçamental do governo, que disparou com a crise de 2008, possa descer para níveis confortáveis rapidamente, caindo para 564 mil milhões de dólares (410 mil milhões de euros), ou 3% do PIB, no ano fiscal que tem início a 1 outubro e para 2,2% do PIB em 2020.

O orçamento para o ano que começa a 01 de outubro (ano fiscal de 2015) é de 3,9 biliões de dólares (2,8 biliões de euros), 6,8% acima do atual orçamento.

http://www.tvi24.iol.pt/503/economi...amento-crescimento-economia/1542088-6377.html

Em qualquer outro país este cenário seria visto como um desastre mas nos EUA é visto como "benigno". Tanta ilusão...

 

[Orion]

Para a posterioridade:

[ame="http://videos.sapo.pt/SndmgizTmEqnge5sysJQ"]Obama diz que "Putin não engana ninguém" - SAPO Vídeos[/ame]

 

[Orion]

Não admira que os políticos não queiram ser escutados. Ao que parece aqueles snipers que atingiram a polícia e os protestantes na Ucrânia foram ordenados pelos... opositores. Isto na gíria é um false flag:

The snipers who shot at protesters and police in Kiev were allegedly hired by Maidan leaders, according to a leaked phone conversation between the EU foreign affairs chief Catherine Ashton and Estonian foreign affairs minister, which has emerged online.

"There is now stronger and stronger understanding that behind the snipers, it was not Yanukovych, but it was somebody from the new coalition," Paet said during the conversation.

"I think we do want to investigate. I mean, I didn’t pick that up, that’s interesting. Gosh," Ashton answered.

http://voiceofrussia.com/news/2014_...but-new-coalition-Estonian-FM-to-Ashton-5154/

E a respetiva confirmação:

The recording of a telephone conversation between Foreign Minister Urmas Paet and High Representative Catherine Ashton that has been leaked online is authentic.

The conversation between Paet and Ashton took place on 26 February after the Estonian Foreign Minister’s return from his visit to Ukraine. His visit took place last week, soon after the end of street violence in Kiev.

Foreign Minister Paet was giving an overview of what he had heard the previous day in Kiev and expressed concern over the situation on the ground. We reject the claim that Paet was giving an assessment of the opposition’s involvement in the violence.

`It is extremely regrettable that phone calls are being intercepted,’ said Paet. ’The fact that this phone call has been leaked is not a coincidence,’ added Paet.

http://www.vm.ee/?q=en/node/19353

É o que dá confiar nos líderes. Só mentiras

 

[Orion]

A União Europeia está disposta a garantir durante os próximos dois anos um apoio financeiro à Ucrânia no valor de 11.000 milhões de euros.

O anúncio foi feito esta quarta-feira pelo presidente da Comissão Europeia e surge como resposta a um cenário de quase insolvência na Ucrânia. Os Estados Unidos já prometeram a entrega de garantias de 1000 milhões de dólares e está neste momento a ser também negociado com o Fundo Monetário Internacional a concessão de um empréstimo ao país.

http://www.publico.pt/economia/noti...e-euros-de-apoio-financeiro-a-ucrania-1627115

Não sei porquê mas acho que desta vez o FMI não vai dizer que os ucranianos são preguiçosos, não pagam impostos, têm pouca competitividade e é o peso do Estado que impede o crescimento económico. Enfim, os interesses são outros.

Eu até podia explicar que o FMI é um excelente veículo para controlar um país, e que à semelhança da NATO é uma fachada dos interesses americanos, mas fica para outro dia porventura. Já na Grécia, a Goldman Sachs distorceu as finanças e depois da bancarrota pediram ajuda ao FMI. Se não fosse verdade dava excelente filme. O mesmo sucede-se em África, em que o FMI fez empréstimos aos ditadores e a população continua a pagar a dívida. Contudo, no Iraque:

In 2004, after the US invasion of Iraq, the ‘Paris Club‘ of 19 western creditors agreed to forgive roughly 80% of the $37.2bn owed to them.

http://www.iraq-businessnews.com/2011/08/04/investors-consider-iraqi-debt/

Mas pronto, há que ter critérios diferentes. O Saddam até tinha armas de destruição massiva.

 

[Orion]

Para provar que a maioria das leis dirigidas a bancos é tudo uma grande BS:

A Comissão Europeia adotou normas técnicas para limitar os bónus dos banqueiros, de modo a evitar que as regras de remuneração sejam contornadas pelos bancos e estes corram demasiados riscos.

As normas, desenvolvidas pela Autoridade Bancária Europeia (EBA em inglês), estabelecem uma metodologia para toda a União Europeia (UE) baseada na combinação de critérios qualitativos e quantitativos e servem para identificar os profissionais dos bancos cuja atividade profissional tem um impacto material sobre o perfil de risco da instituição, os quais podem ver as remunerações limitadas.

As normas devem ser seguidas por todas as instituições sujeitas às novas diretivas europeias de requisitos de capital (CRD IV) e reforçam as normas existentes quanto à relação entre a componente variável (incluindo os prémios) e a componente fixa (salário) das remunerações dos banqueiros.

O Comissário Europeu para o Mercado Interno e Serviços, Michel Barnier, disse que alguns bancos estão a fazer «o máximo possível para contornar as regras de remuneração», pelo que a adoção das normas técnicas «é um passo importante para garantir que se aplicam as normas de requisitos de capital sobre esta questão em toda a UE».

Desde 01 de janeiro deste ano que a componente variável não pode exceder 100% do salário fixo. No entanto, sob certas condições, os acionistas podem duplicar essa percentagem.

http://www.tvi24.iol.pt/503/economi...banqueiros-normas-limitacao/1542065-6377.html

Bla bla bla. Logo a seguir:

Bailed-out Lloyds Banking Group and Barclays have handed their bosses almost £1m in shares to sidestep the new rules from Brussels which are intended to clampdown on bankers' pay.

Similar handouts, which have become known in the City as "allowances", will be given to about 1,000 staff at Barclays and some 75 bankers at Lloyds. Barclays is facing outcry about its increased bonus payouts, which are being awarded despite a sharp fall in profits in 2013.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/mar/05/lloyds-bank-boss-shares-eu-bonus-cap

Tudo diferente, tudo igual. Até chamam de "mesada"

 

[Orion]

Tendo em conta a fonte, é necessário ler com cautela. Mas a ser verdade, os ucranianos vão ser arrepender, e muito, de se juntarem ao FMI:

The self-proclaimed government in Kiev is reportedly planning to cut pensions by 50 percent as part of unprecedented austerity measures to save Ukraine from default. With an “empty treasury”, reduction of payments might take place in March.

According to the draft document obtained by Kommersant-Ukraine, social payments will be the first to be reduced.

“The Finance Ministry has prepared a plan for optimizing budget expenditures, which implies budget sequestration is to be in force before the end of March. For this purpose, in particular, it has been proposed to reduce capital costs, eliminate tax schemes and preferences and to cut social benefits, for example, 50 percent of pensions to working pensioners,” Kommersant-Ukraine reported.

Ukraine’s Ministry of Social Policy reported on December 1, 2013, that an average pension in Ukraine is $160.
Right after the formation, the self-proclaimed government in Kiev announced that the “treasury is empty”.

Ukraine’s new prime minister, Arseny Yatsenyuk, promised the government would do its best to avoid a default, adding that he expects an EU/IMF economic stabilization package soon. The plan has been formulated in record time, with the government’s strategy ratified in the Ukrainian parliament on February 27, and the document being sent for evaluation to the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade on March 3.

http://rt.com/news/ukraine-austerity-pensions-halved-174/