Política e economia internacional

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A Gazprom fez esta declaração depois de anunciar a passagem para um sistema de pré-pagamento no fornecimento de gás à Ucrânia, o que supunha o corte imediato do fornecimento do combustível ao país vizinho

A decisão foi anunciada depois de, às 10:00 em Moscovo (07:00 em Lisboa), ter vencido o prazo que a Rússia tinha dado à Ucrânia para pagar 1,95 mil milhões de dólares (1,45 mil milhões de euros), por dívidas anteriores de fornecimento.

O consórcio russo realçou que a empresa ucraniana Naftogaz Ukrainy "tem a obrigação de garantir o transporte do combustível a terceiros países", tal como estipulam os contratos vigentes.

Ao mesmo tempo, a Gazprom indicou que a Comissão Europeia foi informada oportunamente de "possíveis problemas" no transporte do gás caso a Ucrânia começasse a usar o combustível destinado aos consumidores europeus.

De acordo com o consórcio, "foram feitos e far-se-ão todos os esforços possíveis" para impedir problemas no transporte do gás russo para a Europa.

A União Europeia (UE) importa da Rússia a maior parte do gás que consome (39%) e que na sua maioria lhe chega através da Ucrânia.

A UE receia que a Ucrânia se aproprie do gás destinado aos clientes europeus, tal como fez no inverno de 2009.
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http://www.noticiasaominuto.com/mun...imento-de-gas-atraves-de-gasodutos-ucranianos
 
Nos EUA, o FMI defende o aumento do salário mínimo e investimento estatal:

The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast for the U.S. economy this year and said the Federal Reserve may have scope to keep interest rates at zero for longer than investors expect.

The Washington-based IMF now sees the world’s largest economy growing 2 percent this year, down from an April estimate of 2.8 percent. The IMF left a 2015 prediction unchanged at 3 percent, and said it doesn’t expect the U.S. to see full employment until the end of 2017, amid low inflation.

(...)

They urged the U.S. to raise the minimum wage, invest in infrastructure and overhaul immigration policies to boost potential growth as it slips below the long-term average.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...orecast-sees-scope-for-zero-rates-longer.html
 
Os radicais do ISIL já estão a recrutar... na Arábia Saudita:

The evidence showed up last month in Riyadh, where drivers woke up to find leaflets stuffed into the handles of their car doors and in their windshields. They were promoting the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, which has grabbed the world’s attention by seizing parts of northern Iraq. The militant group is also using social media, such as Twitter and YouTube, to recruit young Saudi men.

Already at war with the governments of Iraq and Syria, ISIL also poses a potential threat to the Al Saud family’s rule over the world’s biggest oil exporter. Saudi authorities gained the upper hand in their battle with al-Qaeda, which targeted the kingdom a decade ago, yet analysts said the latest generation of militants may be harder to crush.

ISIL, known as Da’esh in Arabic, has “territorial ambitions and is far more difficult to deal with than al-Qaeda,” Mustafa Alani, an analyst at the Geneva-based Gulf Research Center, said in a telephone interview. “These people are able to hold ground, they have army-like units, and they conduct terrorist attacks.”
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...e-in-riyadh-revives-biggest-saudi-threat.html

Efeitos secundários indesejados das guerrinhas e esquemas.
 
Fazendo um pequeno resumo do que se passa lá fora:

1- Não obstante os constantes atritos entre países que só dão jeito à indústria da guerra (armando os dois lados):

Even as the decision to stop gas supplies to Ukraine aggravates tensions with the U.S. and Europe, Russia faces a dilemma: it still needs Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM), Halliburton Co. (HAL) and BP Plc (BP/) to maintain output from Soviet-era oil fields and develop Arctic and shale reserves.

Russia will require Western companies to provide the modern drilling and production gear -- and techniques such as hydraulic fracturing -- that are essential to unlocking its $8.2 trillion worth of barrels still underground.
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...oil-trove-locked-without-u-s-tech-energy.html

O Ocidente precisa da Rússia e a Rússia precisa do Ocidente. O resto é circo. Não é engraçado ver naqueles países que não têm nada para comer mas há sempre Ak-47 e lança granadas em todo o lado? É como no Afeganistão, já que a gigantesca maioria da heroína vem de lá. As coisas não mudam porque alguns lucram com isso. Em vez de se apostar na agricultura aposta-se em bananas geneticamente modificadas com Vitamina A. Mais dinheiro para as multinacionais e perpetuação da pobreza.

2- A dívida americana pública é de 17 biliões, +-100% PIB. Já a dívida total é de +-60 biliões:

America - its government, businesses, and people - are nearly $60 trillion in debt, according to the latest economic data from thethe St. Louis Federal Reserve. And private debt - not government borrowing - is the biggest reason for the huge deficit.

Total US debt at the end of the first quarter of 2014, on March 31 totaled almost $59.4 trillion - up nearly $500 billion from the end of the fourth quarter of 2013, according to the data. Total debt (the combination of government, business, mortgage, and consumer debt) was $2.2 trillion 40 years ago.

“In 50 short years, debt has gone from being a luxury for a few to a convenience for many to an addiction for most to a disease for all,” James Butler wrote in an Independent Voters Network (IVN) op-ed. “It is a virus that has spread to every aspect of our economy, from a consumer using a credit card to buy a $0.75 candy bar in a vending machine to a government borrowing $17 trillion to keep the lights on.”
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http://rt.com/usa/166352-us-total-debt-sixty-trillion/

Não tenho possibilidade de publicar aqui os gráficos mas aconselho a que vejam os "bonecos" da evolução da dívida (no site supracitado). É de ficar :eek:
 
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Não admira que as bolsas estão a atingir máximos históricos e o resto está estagnado. Os bancos centrais e outras instituições públicas estão a comprar ações (consequência dos juros baixos e isto aumenta significativamente o risco de uma bolha financeira). 29 Biliões de dólares é muito dinheiro:

Evidence of equity-buying by central banks and other public sector investors has emerged from a large-scale survey compiled by Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum (OMFIF), a global research and advisory group. The OMFIF research publication Global Public Investor (GPI) 2014, launched on June 17 is the first comprehensive survey of $29.1 trillion worth of investments held by 400 public sector institutions in 162 countries. The report focuses on investments by 157 central banks, 156 public pension funds and 87 sovereign funds, underlines growing similarities among different categories of public entities owning assets equivalent to 40% of world output.

The assets of these 400 Global Public Investors comprise $13.2 trillion (including gold) at central banks, $9.4 trillion at public pension funds and $6.5 trillion at sovereign wealth funds. In the aftermath of the financial crisis, different forms of "state capitalism" have come to the fore, the report says: "Whether or not this trend is a good thing may be open to question. What is incontestable is that it has happened."
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http://www.usatoday.com/story/money...rld-markets-global-public-investors/10548183/
 
Agora é que são elas. Presidente do Iraque ignora a solução política dos EUA e acusa a Arábia Saudita de genocídio:

Iraq's Shi'ite rulers defied Western calls on Tuesday to reach out to Sunnis to defuse the uprising in the north of the country, declaring a boycott of Iraq's main Sunni political bloc and accusing Sunni power Saudi Arabia of promoting "genocide".

Washington has made clear it wants Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to embrace Sunni politicians as a condition of U.S. support to fight a lightning advance by forces from the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.

But the Shi'ite prime minister has moved in the opposite direction, announcing a crackdown on politicians and officers he considers "traitors" and lashing out at neighbouring Sunni countries for stoking militancy.

The latest target of his government's fury was Saudi Arabia, the main Sunni power in the Gulf, which funds Sunni militants in neighbouring Syria but denies it is behind ISIL.

"We hold them responsible for supporting these groups financially and morally, and for the outcome of that - which includes crimes that may qualify as genocide: the spilling of Iraqi blood, the destruction of Iraqi state institutions and historic and religious sites," the Iraqi government said of Riyadh in a statement.
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http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/06/17/us-iraq-security-idUSKBN0EP0KJ20140617
 
Um clip de 1994 em que Dick Cheney diz que durante a Primeira Guerra do Golfo Bagdad não foi invadida porque tirando o Saddam o Iraque ficaria no estado em que está hoje. Tendo em conta isto, só ingénuos acreditam que 9 anos depois as coisas seriam completamente diferentes. Mas uma coisa é eu escrever que o que se vê no Iraque nada tem a ver com democracia, outra coisa é os culpados dessa confusão a mudarem de argumentos poucos anos depois (1994 -> 2003) de uma forma completamente cínica (e arrastando os outros):





Richard Clarke, um dos principais oficiais de contra-terrorismo na Administração Bush acusa este e o Cheney de crimes de guerra:

 
Editado por um moderador:
Por fim, no Reino Unido já está em vigor uma campanha de medo contra os insurgentes do Iraque:

British Prime Minister David Cameron said on Wednesday that Sunni Islamist insurgents fighting in Iraq were planning to attack Britain and that "ungoverned spaces" where militants thrived had to be shut down.

(...)

"The people in that regime as well as trying to take territory are also planning to attack us here at home in the United Kingdom."
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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/06/18/uk-iraq-security-britain-idUKKBN0ET1BY20140618

Não é engraçado que o Cameron ao mesmo tempo que faz isso, quer que o Obama tire o Assad da Síria (piorando assim o problema) usando o argumento das bombas químicas que hoje foram lançadas pelo governo, amanhã pelos rebeldes apoiados pelo Ocidente e depois de amanhã de novo pelo governo?

David Cameron today urged the US to bomb the Syrian regime, claiming there was a risk of a civilian “Armageddon” if the use of chemical weapons went unpunished.

The Prime Minister's appeal to Barack Obama to see through military action against the regime of Bashar Assad came as he firmly ruled out any British participation. President Obama also said more attacks could happen if nothing was done. Speaking in Sweden, he urged: "I do think we have to act because if we don't we are effectively saying that even though we may condemn it and issue resolutions... somebody who is not shamed by resolutions could continue with impunity."
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http://www.standard.co.uk/news/worl...bama-to-bomb-assads-syria-regime-8797770.html
 
No Iraque, os EUA exigem um novo governo (o fantoche Maliki já não é útil):

The Obama administration is signaling that it wants a new government in Iraq without Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, convinced the Shiite leader is unable to reconcile with the nation's Sunni minority and stabilize a volatile political landscape.

The U.S. administration is indicating it wants Iraq's political parties to form a new government without Mr. Maliki as he tries to assemble a ruling coalition following elections this past April, U.S. officials say.

Such a new government, U.S., officials say, would include the country's Sunni and Kurdish communities and could help to stem Sunni support for the al Qaeda offshoot, the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, or ISIS, that has seized control of Iraqi cities over the past two weeks. That, the officials argue, would help to unify the country and reverse its slide into sectarian division.
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http://online.wsj.com/articles/u-s-signals-1403137521?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories
 
Ainda no Iraque, a Arábia Saudita rejeita intervenções externas no país, afirmando que é um assunto interno. Infelizmente não aplicam o mesmo critério na Síria:

In an article for the Telegraph, Prince Mohammed bin Nawaf al-Saud said the crisis in Saudi Arabia's northern neighbour should be sorted out between Iraqis alone as it was a product of the sectarian divisions in Iraq.

As Washington considers an Iraqi request to undertake air strikes against ISIS, which has seized a swathe of the north including Mosul, the second city, Prince Mohammed signalled that Saudi Arabia was implacably opposed to any new military intervention.

His comments can also be read as a firm statement against Iranian involvement in the Iraqi fightback. Qassem Soleimani, the commander of Iran's special forces, has been reported active in Iraq assisting Shia Muslim militias.

"We oppose all foreign intervention and interference. There must be no meddling in Iraq’s internal affairs, not by us or by the US, the UK or by any other government. This is Iraq’s problem and they must sort it out themselves," Prince Mohammed wrote.
Clique para expandir...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...st-not-meddle-in-Iraq-warns-Saudi-Arabia.html

Adição:

O Maliki já veio dizer que não se demite:

A spokesman for the Iraqi prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki, has said he will not stand down as a condition of US air strikes against Sunni militants who have made a lightning advance across the country.
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http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/19/iraq-maliki-us-strikes-air-isis-sunni

Será que os drones vão ser enviados para o liquidarem?
 
Com o aumento do preço do petróleo devido ao Iraque, este é um dado interessante:

The rule of thumb favored by many economists is that every $10 increase in the price of a barrel of oil ends up cutting global growth by about 0.2 percentage point. That’s not an inconsequential amount for an already lackluster expansion. The World Bank last week cut its outlook for 2014 global growth to 2.8 percent.
Clique para expandir...

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-point-for-oil-return-as-economic-threat.html

Por cada aumento de 10 dólares no petróleo menos 0,2 em média de crescimento. Como é que as economias hão-de crescer, especialmente as desenvolvidas, com tantos países com mão-de-obra mais barata a querer crescer e com petróleo a >100 dólares? É muita gente/países a lutar por recursos limitados. E como é óbvio não vai acabar bem. Quer seja daqui a 5, 10 ou mesmo 20 anos.
 
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