Política e economia internacional

[Orion]

O Governo do Japão aprovou hoje uma histórica e polémica modificação da sua Constituição pacifista adotada depois da II Guerra Mundial, que agora lhe permitirá pela primeira vez ajudar militarmente os seus aliados, se forem atacados.

A medida foi insistentemente impulsionada pelo primeiro-ministro, Shinzo Abe, apesar da rejeição de boa parte da opinião pública no Japão (mais de 60 por cento, de acordo com as últimas sondagens) e até de membros da coligação governante.

Foram hoje incluídas na Carta Magna várias condições que permitem ao Japão defender os seus aliados, algo até agora limitado pelo artigo 9º, que impedia o país de usar a força para resolver conflitos internacionais.

http://www.noticiasaominuto.com/mundo/242600/japao-aprova-modificacao-historica-da-sua-constituicao

É o adágio antigo, a economia está a dissolver-se e a (ameaça de) guerra é sempre a solução.

 

[Orion]

Os EUA nunca tiveram intenção de sair do Iraque. Até construiram uma embaixada de 700 milhões e com melhoramentos custando 115 milhões:

The State Department is planning to spend $115 million to upgrade the the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad only three and a half years after American diplomats moved into the massive $700 million facility, reports Walter Pincus of the Washington Post.

http://www.businessinsider.com/us-embassy-baghdad-money-2012-6

Notícias mais recentes:

- O Iraque já comprou caças russos:

O Iraque recebeu uma entrega de caças de combate russos Sukhoi. A ajuda chega numa altura crucial para a tentativa de travar o avanço dos jihadistas do estado islâmico do Iraque e do Levante, no norte e oeste do país.

http://www.rtp.pt/noticias/index.php?article=748685&tm=7&layout=122&visual=61

- Os EUA mandam tropas para proteger a embaixada, mísseis e outro material militar:

President Barack Obama has said he will send about 200 more US troops to Iraq to protect Americans and the US embassy in Baghdad amid fierce fighting in the country between government forces and Sunni armed groups.

The US is also sending a detachment of helicopters and drone aircraft.

Pentagon spokesman Rear Admiral John Kirby said on Monday about 200 forces arrived in Iraq on Sunday to reinforce security at the US embassy, its support facilities and the Baghdad International Airport.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2014/06/us-ramps-up-military-iraq-2014630213338735515.html

The risk of sectarian civil war in Iraq, OPEC’s second-biggest oil producer, flared last month after the Sunni al-Qaeda breakaway, now known as the Islamic State, seized Mosul, the country’s biggest northern city, and advanced on other towns. The U.S. State Department has told lawmakers informally that the Obama administration wants to sell Iraq more than 4,000 additional Hellfire missiles to support its fight against the Islamist insurgents, according to people familiar with the plan.

Sale of the laser-guided missiles made by Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) would be in addition to 500 previously purchased.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...pment-of-russian-jets-to-fight-militants.html

Com cada míssil Hellfire a custar >50.000 dólares, a guerra dá muito lucro. É sempre mais uns empregos.

Por fim, até a China é prejudicada com essa turbulência pois compra metade do petróleo iraquiano:

China already buys nearly half the oil that Iraq produces, nearly 1.5 million barrels a day, and is angling for an even bigger share, bidding for a stake now owned by Exxon Mobil in one of Iraq’s largest oil fields.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/03/w...its-of-iraq-oil-boom.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0

 

[Agreste]

o ISIS já tem os velhos SCUD... se aquilo funcionar podem atacar a uma distância de 600-700 quilómetros...

 

[Orion]

A OCDE prevê que até 2060 a desigualdade de rendimentos pode aumentar entre 17 e 40%.

Notícia em inglês:

http://www.businessinsider.com/wage-inequality-will-slow-the-economy-2014-7

 

[Orion]

Tema recorrente, destrói-se o dólar destrói-se os EUA enquanto potência militar e económica:

BRICS morphing into anti-dollar alliance

On June 10th, Sergey Glaziev, Putin's economy advisor published an article outlining the need to establish an international alliance of countries willing to get rid of the dollar in international trade and refrain from using dollars in their currency reserves. The ultimate goal would be to break the Washington's money printing machine that is feeding its military-industrial complex and giving the US ample possibilities to spread chaos across the globe, fueling the civil wars in Libya, Iraq, Syria and Ukraine. Glaziev's critics believe that such an alliance would be difficult to establish and that creating a non-dollar-based global financial system would be extremely challenging from a technical point of view. However, in her discussion with Vladimir Putin, the head of the Russian central bank unveiled an elegant technical solution for this problem and left a clear hint regarding the members of the anti-dollar alliance that is being created by the efforts of Moscow and Beijing:

"We've done a lot of work on the ruble-yuan swap deal in order to facilitate trade financing. I have a meeting next week in Beijing," she said casually and then dropped the bomb: "We are discussing with China and our BRICS parters the establishment of a system of multilateral swaps that will allow to transfer resources to one or another country, if needed. A part of the currency reserves can be directed to [the new system]." (source of the quote: Prime news agency)

(...)

If the current trend continues, soon the dollar will be abandoned by most of the significant global economies and it will be kicked out of the global trade finance. Washington's bullying will make even former American allies chose the anti-dollar alliance instead of the existing dollar-based monetary system. The point of no return for the dollar may be much closer than it is generally thought. In fact, the greenback may have already past its point of no return on its way to irrelevance.

http://voiceofrussia.com/2014_07_03/BRICS-is-morphing-into-an-anti-dollar-alliance-6229/

Isto já vem desde alguns anos:

2011:

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin accused the United States Monday of living beyond its means "like a parasite" on the global economy and said dollar dominance was a threat to the financial markets.

(...)

"They are living like parasites off the global economy and their monopoly of the dollar," Putin said at the open-air meeting with admiring young Russians in what looked like early campaigning before parliamentary and presidential polls.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/01/us-russia-putin-usa-idUSTRE77052R20110801


2009:

"The one reserve currency has become a danger to the world economy: that is now obvious to everybody," he said in a speech at the World Economic Forum.

It is the first time that a Russian leader has set foot in the sanctum sanctorum of global capitalism at Davos.

Mr Putin said the leading powers should ensure an "irreversible" move towards a system of multiple reserve currencies, questioning the "reliability" of the US dollar as a safe store of value. "The pride of Wall Street investment banks don't exist any more," he said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...tin-calls-for-end-of-dollar-stranglehold.html

 

[Orion]

Os terrenos apropriados por investidores estrangeiros e privados em alguns dos países mais pobres do mundo poderiam alimentar cerca de 550 milhões de pessoas, revela um novo estudo.

As plantações cultivadas nestas terras – retiradas à vida selvagens e nativos – são frequentemente exportadas ou utilizadas para produzir biocombustíveis, mas este novo estudo indica que poderia acabar com a subnutrição se as terras fossem utilizadas para cultivar alimentos para as populações locais

Desde 2000, pelo menos 31 milhões de hectares de terra foram adquiridos por investidores estrangeiros, que procuram assegurar garantir o abastecimento de alimentos para os países desenvolvidos ou para aumentar a produção dos seus negócios. A maioria destes territórios reclamados situa-se em África, especialmente no Sudão. Mas a Indonésia e Papua Nova Guiné também são locais procurados, refere o Guardian.

Os compradores argumentam que o investimento estrangeiro pode aumentar os rendimentos daqueles países, fomentar o desenvolvimento e criar postos de trabalho. Contudo, os opositores a estas aquisições indicam que na maioria dos casos a compra se dá sem o consentimento das populações que lá vivem.

“Crucial para este debate é o conhecimento da magnitude do fenómeno: quantas pessoas poderiam ser alimentadas”, indica Maria Cristina Rulli, professora do Instituto Politécnico de Milão e autora do estudo. O estudo considerou que mesmo com as terras que são utilizadas para a produção de biocombustíveis, os terrenos comprados poderiam suportar entre 300 a 500 milhões de pessoas se os retornos oferecidos pela terra fossem aumentados para os níveis da agricultura industrializada ocidental. Mesmo sem essa melhoria, cerca de 190 a 370 milhões de pessoas poderiam ser alimentadas.

http://greensavers.sapo.pt/2014/07/...ros-poderia-alimentar-550-milhoes-de-pessoas/

 

[Orion]

Já aqui fiz referência ao estado lastimável dos bancos europeus. Tendo em conta a lei dos bail-ins, só o Deutsche Bank precisaria de 160 mil milhões de euros:

Instead, the ECB stepped into the breach, starting with 2012’s as-yet-untested Outright Monetary Transactions program for buying government bonds.

Guided by their goal of taking taxpayers off the hook in future bank crises, EU policy makers have also built in tough new rules for imposing losses on shareholders and creditors at failing lenders.

“It has become almost impossible not to bail in,” said Karel Lannoo, chief executive officer of the Brussels-based Centre for European Policy Studies. In this case of Deutsche Bank AG, this could reach 160 billion euros, he said, a level that might be financially ruinous.

The most recent addition to the banking union toolbox is the the ESM’s capacity to recapitalize banks directly, conceived by euro-area leaders in June 2012 as a way to “break the vicious circle between banks and sovereigns.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...k-highlights-crisis-tools-built-for-show.html


O FMI lança um alerta em relação à França. O desemprego deverá crescer até 2016 e a dívida chegar a 103% nesse mesmo ano:

France is on the cusp of a fresh recession as services contract sharply and the country braces for yet another round of austerity cuts, with record jobless levels likely to bedevil Francois Hollande’s presidency for years to come.

Markit’s PMI services gauge for France fell for the third month to 48.2 in June, pointing to an outright fall in GDP following zero growth in the first quarter.

The International Monetary Fund cut its growth forecast this year from 1pc to 0.7pc, warning that there would be no “appreciable decline” in French unemployment until 2016. “Volatile and uneven leading indicators point to the risk of a stalled recovery,” it said.

The IMF said public debt should peak at 95pc of GDP next year but a “growth shock” would push it to 103pc by 2016. The Fund warned of a “negative spiral of low growth and falling inflation” that is pushing up real borrowing costs and further choking investment, already dismally weak. Core inflation was 0.3pc in May.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...piral-in-France-as-recession-looms-again.html

 

[Orion]

Já abordei este assunto mas já há em português. As praias da Grécia estão à venda:

http://sicnoticias.sapo.pt/economia...a;jsessionid=AAF8A8BD24EA3CAD77A76DB2D9D5005A

 

[Orion]

Outro presidente que não vai durar muito:

O Egipto anunciou, este sábado, mais um corte nos subsídios à energia – neste caso ao gás natural. Os sectores industriais do ferro, aço, carvão, cobre, cerâmica e vidro vão ter agora de pagar mais caro pelo gás, num aumento de 30 a 75%.

A medida foi publicada no diário oficial do país, somando-se a outra de teor semelhante para os combustíveis rodoviários, que sofreram aumentos de até 78%.

O preço da electricidade – que é vendida a menos da metade do seu custo – deverá também aumentar para o dobro nos próximos cinco anos.

Controlar os gastos com os subsídios na área da energia – que consomem um quinto do orçamento do país – é uma prioridade do novo Presidente do Egipto, Abdel Fattah al Sisi, eleito no final de Maio e no poder desde 8 de Junho.

http://www.publico.pt/economia/noticia/egipto-faz-cortes-drasticos-nos-subsidios-a-energia-1661738

 

[Orion]

As autoridades italianas resgataram e identificaram 73.686 imigrantes ilegais nos últimos oito meses, que tentavam entrar na Europa vindos da região do Magrebe e da áfrica subsaariana.

O comandante da Marinha italiana, o vice-almirante Filippo Foffi, disse hoje que desde o início da operação Mare Nostrum, a 18 de outubro passado, foram encontrados e identificados 73.686 imigrantes não documentados que tentavam chegar a Itália.

A operação, que tem o centro de controlo numa base militar perto de Roma, começou duas semanas depois da tragédia ocorrida na ilha de Lampedusa no princípio de outubro do ano passado, quando 366 pessoas morreram em frente à costa italiana porque o barco em que viajavam se afundou.

http://noticias.sapo.pt/nacional/ar...is-de-73-mil-ilegais-em-8-meses_17963291.html

 

[Agreste]

Controlar o gasto nas forças armadas e nas toneladas de material que compram aos estados unidos é que não pode ser nada... a guerra é a guerra, o que seriamos nós sem a guerra.

 

[Orion]

French Finance Minister Michel Sapin said euro area governments need to look at ways of bolstering the use of the euro in international transactions as a matter of “global balance.”

(...)

“This is not a fight against dollar imperialism,” Sapin said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Aix-en-Provence, France. “We sell ourselves aircraft in dollars. Is that really necessary? I don’t think so.”

Euro area finance ministers will discuss ways of increasing the use of the euro tomorrow in Brussels, Sapin said. The French finance minister received support from Christophe de Margerie, head of French oil company Total SA (FP), who said yesterday that he sees no reason for oil purchases to be made in dollars, adding that it makes sense to expand the use of other currencies in transactions outside the U.S.

“Nothing prevents anyone from paying for oil in euros,” de Margerie said in Aix-en-Provence. “The price of a barrel of oil is quoted in dollars. A refinery can take that price and using the euro-dollar exchange rate on any given day, agree to make the payment in euros.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...-use-of-euro-is-issue-of-global-balance-.html

Os países já estão fartos de comprar dólares para fazer todas as transações comerciais internacionais.

 

[Gerofil]

A indústria bélica é tão importante para a economia russa que depois do gás natural e petróleo, as armas são os principais itens de exportação. Não por acaso que o fuzil de assalto mais fabricado e comercializado no mundo é o Kalashnikov AK-47.

 

[Orion]

A FED deverá acabar com o QE lá para Outubro. Subida de taxas de juro não é algo que vá acontecer a curto prazo. Resta saber como é que a FED vai vender tudo o que comprou (4 biliões de dólares) sem colapsar a economia.

According to the new plan, the Fed will make a $15 billion final reduction at its October meeting, after trimming it by $10 billion at each meeting up to that point.

Fed officials said that members of the public had asked them if the Fed would end the program in October or with a final $5 billion reduction in December.

Most Fed officials said that the exact end of the tapering issue with no bearing on the timing of the first rate hike. The Fed has said that rates would remain near zero for a “considerable time” after the Fed halts its program of bond purchases.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fe...urchases-in-october-2014-07-09?dist=countdown

Em Israel, mais do mesmo, foguetes e mais uma incursão militar prestes a acontecer. Já no mês passado, o Hamas ameaçava mais uma intifada:

Hamas is promising to “open the gates of hell” if Netanyahu’s government expels its leaders from the West Bank to Gaza in connection with three missing Israeli teens. The rescue operation resulted in 280 arrests and a death of a Palestinian teen.

http://rt.com/news/167232-hamas-intifada-israeli-teens/

 

[Orion]

The activities of users of Twitter and other social media services were recorded and analysed as part of a major project funded by the US military, in a program that covers ground similar to Facebook’s controversial experiment into how to control emotions by manipulating news feeds.

Research funded directly or indirectly by the US Department of Defense’s military research department, known as Darpa, has involved users of some of the internet’s largest destinations, including Facebook, Twitter, Pinterest and Kickstarter, for studies of social connections and how messages spread.

(...)

Several of the DoD-funded studies went further than merely monitoring what users were communicating on their own, instead messaging unwitting participants in order to track and study how they responded.

(...)

However, papers leaked by NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden indicate that US and British intelligence agencies have been deeply engaged in planning ways to covertly use social media for purposes of propaganda and deception.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...l-networks-research-twitter-influence-studies

Publico este artigo no seguimento da notícia do Facebook. Como é óbvio muita gente tem interesse em usar as redes sociais como armas.