Previsão e Seguimento de Furacões (Atlântico 2019)

[Afgdr]

A época de furacões no Atlântico iniciou-se oficialmente no dia 1 de junho e termina no dia 30 de novembro.


Nomes dos Furacões Época 2019

Andrea | Barry | Chantal | Dorian | Erin | Fernand | Gabrielle | Humberto | Imelda | Jerry
Karen | Lorenzo | Melissa | Nestor | Olga | Pablo | Rebekah | Sebastien | Tanya | Van | Wendy
​

Links úteis

Entidade responsável pelos avisos no Atlântico:
NHC (avisos oficiais em inglês e espanhol)

Imagens de Satélite
NRL Monterey - Tropical
NOAA Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery
Tropical RAMDIS RealTime
Tropical RAMDIS
CIMSS Tropical Cyclones
EUMETSAT Airmass
NASA Interactive Global Geostationary Weather Satellite Images

Modelos Meteorológicos
NOAA NCEP Model Analyses and Forecasts
Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields
Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance
NOAA ESRL Tropical Cyclone Tracks from Ensemble Models
ECMWF Tropical
ECMWF
SFWMD Hurricane Models Plots
FSU Phase Diagrams
PSU E-Wall Tropical
SFWMD Model Plots


Outros Dados
Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product
SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic
Current Observations Across the Caribbean
GOES-East Wind Shear Analysis
Surface Wind Analysis
WAVETRAK - Tropical Wave Tracking
QuikSCAT Storm Page
ASCAT Storm Page
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
Reynolds SST Anomaly
Operational SST Anomaly Charts
Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity
NOAA Dvorak
National Data Buoy Center
NHC Aircraft Reconnaissance
NHC TAFB Forecasts and Analyses
Saharan Air Layer Analysis

Radares Meteorológicos
Aruba
Bahamas
Belize
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Cuba
EUA Nexrad
EUA WU Nexrad
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Republica Dominicana


Serviços Nacionais ou Regionais de Meteorologia
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México
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Panamá
Portugal
República Dominicana
Santa Lúcia
Suriname
Venezuela


Ferramentas
Pressure and Wind Conversion Tool
Experimental Reconnaissance Decoder
Layer Google Earth Reconnaissance


Climatologia

Época
A época de ciclones tropicais no Oceano Atlântico começa, oficialmente, no dia 1 de Junho e prolonga-se até 30 de Novembro. Estas são as datas oficiais, no entanto, por vezes, há anos com exceções.


Origem e Trajetos (1851-2017)

Pico

O pico estatístico da época é o dia 10 de Setembro.

N.º Médio Cumulativo de Sistemas no Atlântico por Ano (1966-2009)

N.º Médio de Ciclones Tropicais por Meses (1851-2017)

Origem e Trajetos por Meses
A atividade no Atlântico varia ao longo de toda a época. Apesar de o Oceano Alântico não estar ativo da mesma forma ao longo dos meses, há um padrão geral, representado nas seguintes imagens.

Junho

Julho

Agosto

Setembro

Outubro

Novembro

 

["Charneca" Mundial]

Este nao existem furacoes no Atlantico?

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Temos agora 2 tempestades tropicais, mas comparando com outros anos, este ano está muito fraquinho. Talvez lá para meio de setembro.

 

[Afgdr]

Estão a ser monitorizadas 3 áreas no Atlântico: a TT Dorian e 2 Invest (90L e 98L).

Invest 98L

Tem 70% de probabilidade de se tornar um ciclone tropical nas próximas 48h (90% em 5 dias).

1. A trough of low pressure extending from the coast of south-central
Florida northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred
miles continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical or
subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while the
system moves northeastward over the Atlantic, offshore of the
southeastern United States coast. Interests along the coasts of
South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the progress
of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system on Sunday, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

00h25 UTC

Invest 90L

Tem uma probabilidade de 0% de se tornar um ciclone tropical nas próximas 48h/120h.

2. Satellite and surface observations show that the trough of low
pressure over the far northwestern Gulf of Mexico has moved inland
over the Upper Texas coast and western Louisiana. Although further
development of this system is not expected, it will likely bring
locally heavy rains to portions of Louisiana and eastern Texas
during the next day or two. See products issued by your local
National Weather Service office for additional information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

00h25 UTC

 

[Afgdr]

Na manhã de hoje, o panorama no Atlântico é este: 1 TT e 1 área sob vigilância (Invest 98L), com 60% de probabilidade de se tornar um ciclone tropical nas próximas 48h.

Invest 98L

1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
trough of low pressure that extends from south-central Florida
northeastward over the western Atlantic for a few hundred
miles. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to
form within the next few days while the system moves northeastward
offshore of the southeastern United States. Interests along the
coasts of South and North Carolina should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


Aspeto às 10h00 UTC

 

[Afgdr]

O Invest 98L tem agora 70% de se tornar um ciclone tropical/subtropical nas próximas 48h.

1. Recent satellite wind data indicate that the circulation of an
elongated low pressure area centered about 350 miles south-southwest
of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, has become a little better
defined. While the associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently poorly organized, environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or subtropical
cyclone is likely to form within the next few days while the system
moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern United
States. Interests along the coasts of South and North Carolina
should continue to monitor the progress of this system. The Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission scheduled for this
afternoon was canceled. However, another aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system on Monday, if necessary. Additional
information on this system is available in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

17h51 UTC

 

[Afgdr]

Neste momento, é esta a atividade no Atlântico: 1 TT (Dorian) e 1 Invest (98L).

Invest 98L

Há uma probabilidade de 80% de se formar um ciclone tropical/subtropical nas próximas 48h/120h.


1. An elongated area of low pressure centered about 280 miles
south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina has become a
little better organized this morning. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical or
subtropical cyclone is likely to form today or Tuesday while the
system moves slowly northeastward well offshore of the southeastern
United States. Interests along the coasts of South and North
Carolina should continue to monitor the progress of this system. An
Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later today, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.



11h41

 

[Afgdr]

O Invest 98L tornou-se a Depressão Tropical Seis (DT6).

O acompanhamento é feito agora em https://www.meteopt.com/forum/topico/depressao-tropical-seis-atlantico-2019-al06.10102/ .

 

[MSantos]

Este nao existem furacoes no Atlantico?

A fase mais activa da temporada está a começar morna. Neste momento temos dois sistemas o ERIN eo DORIAN, sendo que o ERIN já perdeu as caraterísticas tropicais e o DORIAN pode ainda ser um problema para a Florida e Bahamas.

 

[Afgdr]

Está sob vigilância uma nova área no Atlântico, com uma probabilidade de 0% de se tornar um ciclone tropical nas próximas 48 horas, aumentando para 30% em 5 dias.


1. A tropical wave is moving westward from the coast of Africa.
Some development of this system is possible early next week over
the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

 

[Afgdr]

As atenções estão centradas, agora, no Dorian, mas há que ir acompanhando, também, as outras áreas que estão a ser investigadas pelo NHC.

Neste momento, o panorama no Atlântico é este: 1 furacão (Dorian - furacão cat 5) e 3 áreas sob vigilância.

Invest 91L

Uma área localizada a cerca de 160 km WSW das ilhas de Cabo Verde tem uma probabilidade média (60%) de se tornar ciclone tropical nas próximas 48h e alta (80%) em 5 dias.


1. An area of low pressure located about 100 miles west-southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a large area of showers and
thunderstorms. This system is gradually becoming better organized,
and environmental conditions appear conducive for additional
development during the next several days. A tropical depression is
likely to form by the middle of the week while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the southern Cabo Verde
Islands during the next day or two, and interests on those islands
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


02h35 UTC

Outra área, no Golfo do México, tem uma probabilidade de 20% de se tornar um ciclone tropical nas próximas 48h e de 40% em 5 dias.

2. A broad area of low pressure is located over the south-central
Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance continues to produce widespread
disorganized showers and a few thunderstorms. Some gradual
development of this system is possible during the next few days
while it moves slowly westward across the southern and southwestern
Gulf of Mexico toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.



Outra área localizada a SSE da Bermuda tem 10% de probabilidade de se tornar um ciclone tropical nas próximas 48h e 30% em 5 dias.

3. A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Although the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is showing some signs of organization, the
system does not currently have a closed surface circulation. Some
gradual development of this disturbance is possible during the next
few days while it moves slowly northward or north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

 

[Afgdr]

Este era o cenário no Atlântico esta manhã:

O NHC está a monitorizar o Furacão Dorian e a vigiar outras 4 áreas.


Invest 91L - 240 km SSW de Cabo Verde

A probabilidade de se formar um ciclone tropical em 48h aumentou, estando, neste momento, nos 80%. Em 5 dias, a probabilidade de formação é a mesma.

O próximo nome da lista é Fernand.

1. Recent satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that the low
pressure system located about 150 miles west-southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands has become better defined. Shower and thunderstorm
activity is beginning to show signs of organization, and
environmental conditions appear conducive for a tropical depression
to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally
northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean. Locally
heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands through
Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

11h25 UTC

Golfo do México

Esta área tem uma probabilidade de se tornar um ciclone tropical de 30% em 48h (50% em 120h).

2. A broad area of low pressure located over the south-central Gulf of
Mexico continues to produce widespread cloudiness and disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system
is possible during the next few days while the low moves slowly
westward across the south-central and southwestern Gulf of Mexico
toward the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

11h25 UTC

Invest 92L - SSE Bermuda

Tem 30% de probabilidade de se tornar um ciclone tropical em 48h (50% em 5 dias).

3.

A trough of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Bermuda. Shower and thunderstorm activity has
increased since yesterday and has also become better organized this
morning. Gradual development of this system is possible during
the next few days while the disturbance moves slowly northward or
north-northwestward. Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor
the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

11h25 UTC

Outra área perto de Cabo Verde tem uma probabilidade de 0% de se tornar um ciclone tropical nas próximas 48h (20% em 5 dias).

4. A tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands by the end of the
week. Some gradual development of this disturbance will be possible
over the weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

11h25 UTC

 

[guisilva5000]

Ui, veio Setembro e parece que disparou tudo...

 

[Afgdr]

O NHC está a monitorizar 3 áreas, para além do Furacão Dorian e da recém-formada Tempestade Tropical Fernand.

Invest 91L - 90% de probabilidade de formação de ciclone tropical em 48h/5 dias

Deverá formar-se, ainda hoje ou amanhã, uma depressão tropical a W de Cabo Verde.

1. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands continues to exhibit a broad circulation. Any
significant increase in thunderstorms would contribute to the
formation of a tropical depression.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

19h45 UTC

Invest 92L - 50% de probabilidade de formação de ciclone tropical em 48h/5 dias

Esta área, localizada a S da Bermuda, tem uma probabilidade média de evoluir para ciclone tropical.

2. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure,
located several hundred miles south of Bermuda were showing some
signs of organization. Development of this disturbance is possible
during the next couple of days while it moves northward. Interests
in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. Periods of
heavy rainfall are likely to impact Bermuda.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

19h45 UTC

3. tropical wave is forecast to emerge over the far eastern tropical
Atlantic between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands by Thursday.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression is likely to form by late this
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Probabilidade de 0% de formação de ciclone tropical em 48h / 70% em 5 dias

 

[Afgdr]

O Invest 91L tornou-se a Depressão Tropical 8.

Tópico de acompanhamento: https://www.meteopt.com/forum/topico/depressao-tropical-oito-atlantico-2019-al08.10118/

 

[Afgdr]

O Atlântico está bastante ativo e aproxima-se o pico estatístico da época, o dia 10 de setembro.

Neste momento, o NHC está a monitorizar um furacão cat 2 (Dorian), uma tempestade tropical (Gabrielle), uma depressão tropical em dissipação (Fernand) e outras 2 áreas com potencial para se tornarem ciclones tropicais.

Invest 92L

60% de probabilidade de formação de ciclone tropical nas próximas 48h-120h (probabilidade média)

1. A small area of low pressure located about 150 miles northeast of
Bermuda has become a little better defined today, but the
thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Further development
of this disturbance is possible, and a tropical depression could
form during the next couple of days as the disturbance moves
northeastward away from Bermuda. By Saturday, upper-level winds are
forecast to become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

00h15 UTC

Área no Atlântico Leste

0% de probabilidade de formação de ciclone tropical nas próximas 48h (probabilidade baixa); 50% em 120h (probabilidade média)

2. A tropical wave along the coast of Africa is forecast to emerge
over the eastern Atlantic later today. Environmental conditions
appear to be conducive for some slow development late this week,
and this system has the potential to become a tropical depression
over the weekend or early next week while it moves westward across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

00h15 UTC