Previsão e Seguimento de Furacões (Atlântico 2023)

[StormRic]

AL012023 teve existência como tempestade sub-tropical entre o dia 14 e o dia 18 de Janeiro

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/text/PNSNHC/2023/PNSNHC.202305111500.txt

Assim, a primeira depressão tropical que aparecer nesta época será já a número 2; se for tempestade tropical será nomeada Arlene.

 

[Orion]

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/2023-atlantic-hurricane-season-outlook

In late June, the Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) will become operational. HAFS will run this season in tandem with the currently operational Hurricane Weather Research and Forecast Model System and Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model, but eventually will become NOAA’s primary hurricane model. Retrospective analysis of tropical storms and hurricanes from the 2020-2022 seasons show that this model has a 10-15% improvement in track forecasts over existing operational models. This new model was jointly created by NOAA's Atlantic Oceanographic & Meteorological Laboratory Hurricane Modeling and Prediction Program and NOAA’s National Weather Service Environmental Modeling Center.

+ https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2023_24/scn23-60_ncep_hurricane_models.pdf

Já existe em muitos portais, mas aqui deixo mais um https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/HAFS/HFSAv1/index.php

 

[StormRic]

Eco na imprensa escrita:

Apesar do El Niño, época de furacões prevê 12 a 17 tempestades no Atlântico

NOAA antevê que se formem em 2023 entre 12 e 17 tempestades que chegam a ser baptizadas e, entre estas, cinco a nove podem tornar-se furacões, incluindo um a quatro com ventos acima de 178 km/hora.

www.publico.pt