Previsão e Seguimento dos Ciclones no O. Índico - Temporada 2019/2020

Tópico em 'Tempo Tropical' iniciado por luismeteo3 7 Fev 2019 às 09:11.

  1. luismeteo3

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  2. luismeteo3

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    [​IMG]

    ----- Current Analysis -----
    Date : 07 FEB 2019 Time : 121500 UTC
    Lat : 19:55:12 S Lon : 66:50:59 E


    CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
    6.0 / 945.3mb/115.0kt

    Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
    6.0 5.9 5.9

    Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

    Center Temp : -17.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.9C

    Scene Type : EYE
     
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  5. Orion

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    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    -> https://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vento_máximo_sustentado

    O centro da Reunião utiliza 10 minutos como período. Já o JTWC, que utiliza 1 minuto como período, indica um landfall com uma intensidade a rondar os 105 nós.

    [​IMG]

    Faz muita diferença para a cidade de Beira. O ciclone tanto passar por cima (JTWC) como ligeiramente a norte (IM Reunião).
     
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  6. Astroamador

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    Enviado do meu ANE-LX1 através do Tapatalk
     
    luismeteo3 gostou disto.
  7. Scan_Ferr

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    Nimbostratus

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    Vai entrar mesmo por cima da Beira?
     
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    A chegada a terra deverá ocorrer a norte/nordeste.
     
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  9. luismeteo3

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  10. luismeteo3

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  11. luismeteo3

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    Parece que já há pelo menos 10 mortos em Moçambique...

     
    #11 luismeteo3, 11 Mar 2019 às 19:06
    Última edição: 11 Mar 2019 às 19:13
  12. luismeteo3

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    Parece que já há pelo menos 40 mortos em Moçambique...



     
  13. luismeteo3

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    Seychelles Meteorological Services
    Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14 - 4:00 AM RET March 12 2019
    CYCLONE TROPICAL IDAI (11-20182019)
    =========================================================
    West of Northwestern Madagascar
    Southwest of Juan de Nova island

    At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Idai (968 hPa) located at 18.0S 42.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

    Hurricane Force Winds
    ===================
    30 nm radius from the center, extending up to 45 nm in the northern semi-circle

    Storm Force Winds
    ====================
    45 nm radius from the center, extending up to 50 nm in the southwestern quadrant and up to 60 nm in the northern semi-circle

    Gale Force Winds
    ===================
    85 nm radius from the center

    Near Gale Force Winds
    ======================
    110 nm radius from the center, extending up to 120 nm in the southern semi-circle

    Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/6 HRS

    Forecast and Intensity
    ========================
    12 HRS: 18.8S 41.7E - 75 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
    24 HRS: 19.3S 40.6E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
    48 HRS: 19.9S 38.0E - 115 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
    72 HRS: 19.5S 35.8E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

    Additional Information
    =========================
    The cycle of eye wall replacement has reduced the wind strength in the northern part of the cyclone as it shows the METOP-A micro-images of 1835z. This cycle continues and leads a cloud pattern with a poorly defined eye, where the Dvorak analysis allows now to estimate the winds of the order of 75 knots. In the absence of an ASCAT swath on the system, it is assumed that the wind structure is asymmetric with a more extensive but weaker northern component.

    Idai maintain a still slow track to the southwest with the strengthening influence of a subtropical ridge located in the southwest. From Wednesday, the track should bend westward. The majority of the available models also suggest that this turn could continue on Thursday, giving a northwestward motion to idai at the moment of its impact on the Mozambican coasts. The timing and localization of the impact thus remain relatively uncertain. Later, most models offer a return to sea of the low level clockwise circulation that could intensify again.

    On this track, the environmental conditions remain conducive for the system, which should continue to strengthen, especially Tuesday and Wednesday with good oceanic conditions, based on data from the psy4 ocean model of Mercator-ocean. However, evidence of a cycle of eye wall replacement leads to a significant weakening of Idai's intensity over the next 12 hours. After the system tracks under the axis of an upper ridge and thus benefits from a good upper divergence, so its intensification will be able to resume during the night from Wednesday to Thursday. Idai should land at the intense tropical cyclone stage.

    Idai should be a very dangerous storm at the time of its landing, which is still forecast on Friday on the Mozambican coastline between Beira and Quelimane approximately. The first storm surge estimations exceed 6m over the Zambeze's delta and are close to 4 meters around Beira and Quelimane. To this, we must add a cyclonic swell already present on the Malagasy and African coasts which will continue to grow. Satellite wave measurements until 6 hours ago provided values of more than 7m (I.E. Maximum heights of nearly 12 meters ) near Idai. Waves of 12 meters are expected on the Mozambican coasts during landing, reaching maximum heights of 20 meters.
     
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  15. luismeteo3

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    O Ciclone Tropical # Idai está a fortalecer-se enquanto se desloca para sudoeste sobre o Canal de Moçambique Prevê-se a chegada à Província de Sofala, Moçambique, no dia 14 de Março, com ventos máximos de 200-210 km / h. visto ontem por # Sentinel3
     

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