Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Pacífico Este e Central 2009)

[Vince]

Tópico de seguimento da época ciclónica de 2009 nas regiões do Pacífico Leste e Pacífico Central.
A época oficial decorre de 15 de Maio a 30 de Novembro no Pacífico Leste e é monitorizada pelo NHC em Miami em simultâneo com o Atlântico, e no Pacífico Central decorre de 1 de Junho a 30 de Novembro e é monitorizada pelo CPHC em Honolulu.

Trajectos (1980-2005)

Nomes:

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Patricia
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina
York
Zelda


Links úteis

- NHC
- NRL
- CPHC

 

[Vince]

Começa hoje 15 de Maio a época oficial no Pacífico Leste, e a 1 de Junho no Pacífico Central, tal como no Atlântico.

 

[MSantos]

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU MAY 21 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION IN THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES
SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG
NNNN

NHC

 

[MSantos]

Poderá estar para breve a primeira depressão tropical no Pacifico Este

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU JUN 11 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD BE
FORMING ABOUT 1000 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA. IF THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND IS CONFIRMED BY VISIBLE IMAGES
OR ADDITIONAL MICROWAVE DATA...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED LATER
TODAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN

NHC

 

[MSantos]

O disturbio tropical enfraqueceu, talvez ainda não seja desta...

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED ABOUT 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE. SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS
BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...AND CONDITIONS NOW APPEAR LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE ...LESS THAN 30
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA
NNNN

 

[MSantos]

Novo Invest no Pacífico Este, Será que é desta que se forma a primeira depressão tropical da temporada?

ZCZC MIATWOEP ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT TUE JUN 16 2009

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTH OF MANZANILLO MEXICO HAVE BECOME
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE AND IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/PASCH
NNNN

 

[MSantos]

Formou-se a primeira Depressão Tropical deste ano

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 181435
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
800 AM PDT THU JUN 18 2009

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON FORMS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND
MEXICO...

AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM
TOPOLOBAMPO SOUTHWARD TO EL ROBLITO AND FOR LAS ISLAS MARIAS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.5 WEST OR ABOUT
370 MILES...595 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MAZATLAN MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATE FRIDAY.
ON THIS TRACK...THE SYSTEM WILL BE APPROACHING THE PACIFIC COAST OF
MEXICO BY FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE COAST.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.2N 108.5W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 1100 AM PDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200
PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BERG

NHC

 

[Vince]

A Depressão tropical nº1 chegou à costa mexicana. Não aumentou de intensidade pelo que não foi desta que tivemos o primeiro sistema com nome no Pacífico Leste. Apesar de não ser tempestade tropical a precipitação intensa pode trazer problemas.

Como não nasceu o «Andres» nestes dias, a época do Pacífico este ano torna-se a 2ª mais tardia desde que há registos fidedignos, que são dos anos 60/70 nesta região, demonstrando a sensação que já tínhamos por aqui que os trópicos tem andado calmos. O primeiro sistema com nome mais tardio é a tempestade Tropical Natalie que se formou em 6 de Julho de 1964, esse record deve ser difícil de bater mas há bastantes dúvidas por falta de tecnologia satélite na altura de que esse tenha sido de facto o 1º sistema nesse ano.

 

[MSantos]

A primeira depressão do ano no Pacífico Este já está se está a dissipar, segue o ultimo aviso emitido pelo NHC para esta depressão:

000
WTPZ31 KNHC 192345
TCPEP1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012009
500 PM PDT FRI JUN 19 2009

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES...

AT 5 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED
ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM WATCHES.

AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION HAS DISSIPATED
NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO.

MOISTURE PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

 

[Chingula]

Tópico de seguimento da época ciclónica de 2009 nas regiões do Pacífico Leste e Pacífico Central.
A época oficial decorre de 15 de Maio a 30 de Novembro no Pacífico Leste e é monitorizada pelo NHC em Miami em simultâneo com o Atlântico, e no Pacífico Central decorre de 1 de Junho a 30 de Novembro e é monitorizada pelo CPHC em Honolulu.

Trajectos (1980-2005)

Nomes:

Andres
Blanca
Carlos
Dolores
Enrique
Felicia
Guillermo
Hilda
Ignacio
Jimena
Kevin
Linda
Marty
Nora
Olaf
Patricia
Rick
Sandra
Terry
Vivian
Waldo
Xina
York
Zelda


Links úteis

- NHC
- NRL
- CPHC

Apenas uma curiosidade:
O Gabinete do "Typhoon Committee", neste momento, é em Macau e é chefiado pelo Meteorologista Português dr. Olavo Rasquinho.

 

[Vince]

Mais um Invest no Pacífico Leste, tem bom aspecto no visível embora ainda não tenha conseguido consolidar um LLC bem definido. De qualquer forma parece um sinal de que as coisas estão a aquecer nos tópicos. O Pacífico Leste costuma "acordar" um pouco antes do Atlântico.

 

[Vince]

E o 93E já é considerado um ciclone tropical, sendo assim a 2ª depressão tropical da temporada. Está previsto que amanhã de manhã se torne a Tempestade Tropical Andres.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022009
200 PM PDT SUN JUN 21 2009

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO...

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SHIP REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SECOND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON HAS FORMED.

AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.7 WEST OR ABOUT
205 MILES...335 KM...SOUTH OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR. A
TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...
THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.7N 101.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB

 

[Vince]

Como previsto ontem, no Pacífico Leste a depressão tropical nº2 evoluiu para Tempestade Tropical ANDRES, o primeiro sistema com nome nesta região tropical. Está previsto que se intensifique para Furacão categoria 1.

 

[Vince]

Trajecto ajustado e agora mais próximo de Terra, mantendo-se a possibilidade de chegar a furacão mas não durante muito tempo devido a interacção com terra.

 

[Vince]

A Tempestade Tropical Andres depois de uma noite e manhã pujante teve um enfraquecimento bastante imprevisto esta tarde, talvez devido à interacção com terra ter sido um pouco subestimada. Um voo Recon que está no sistema nesta altura detecta mesmo assim ventos interessantes apesar da desorganização e do centro bastante exposto levando a crer o Andres tenha sido Furacão antes. Ficará para a análise pós época.