Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Pacífico Leste e Central 2014)

Felipe Freitas

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11 Fev 2012
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Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
Tópico para Monitoramento de Furacões no Pacífico Leste e Central.

A época oficial decorre de 15 de Maio a 30 de Novembro no Pacífico Leste e é monitorizada pelo NHC em Miami em simultâneo com o Atlântico, e no Pacífico Central decorre de 1 de Junho a 30 de Novembro e é monitorizada pelo CPHC em Honolulu.

Lista de nomes para a temporada de 2014 no Pacífico Leste:

Amanda
Boris
Cristina
Douglas
Elida
Fausto
Genevieve
Hernan
Iselle
Julio
Karina
Lowell
Marie
Norbert
Odile

Polo
Rachel
Simon
Trudy
Vance
Winnie
Xavier
Yolanda
Zeke

Lista de nomes para a temporada de 2014 no Pacífico Central:

Wali
Ana
Ela
Halola

Links úteis:
- NHC
- NRL
- CPHC
 
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Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
Mensagens
3,766
Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
Existe a possibilidade do primeiro ciclone tropical da temporada se formar nos próximos dias.
Caso o ciclone se forme, os estados de Colima, Jalisco e Michoacán podem ser afetados.
A intensidade que o possível Ciclone Amanda chegará ainda é incerto.

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Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
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3,766
Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
INVEST 90E tem 50% de chances de se tornar um ciclone tropical nas próximas 48 horas.
Os ventos de cisalhamento devem aumentar nas próximas 24 horas, o que pode impedir o desenvolvimento do ciclone.
Independente se o ciclone se forma ou não, pode haver acumulados de chuva significativos no México.

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Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
Mensagens
3,766
Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
INVEST 91E

Existe a possibilidade de um ciclone tropical se formar nos próximos dias próximo a costa mexicana.
O GFS mostra esse sistema se fortalecendo para tempestade tropical e se aproximando da costa por volta de quinta-feira.

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1. Satellite data indicate that a low pressure system has developed
several hundred miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. Shower and
thunderstorm activity has increased and become a little
better organized over the past several hours, and environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development
to occur during the next few days while the system moves slowly
westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent
 
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Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
Mensagens
3,766
Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
INVEST 91E se dissipou.
Outra área de baixa pressão está em monitoramento.

INVEST 92E

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1. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-
southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are expected to be
only marginally conducive during the next several days, and any
development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves
westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent
 
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Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
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Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
Depressão tropical 1 se formou.
TD 1 pode se fortalecer para tempestade tropical hoje à noite ou na sexta.

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2014

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON
FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 107.4W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 3 MPH...6 KM/H
...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR ON FRIDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
 
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Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
Mensagens
3,766
Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
Tempestade tropical Amanda se formou no Pacífico Leste.
Existe a possibilidade de se tornar furacão na segunda-feira.

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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM AMANDA ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012014
800 AM PDT FRI MAY 23 2014

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM AMANDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 108.4W
ABOUT 620 MI...1000 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM AMANDA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.4 WEST. AMANDA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/H...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
 
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Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
Mensagens
3,766
Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
Amanda se fortalece para categoria 3.
O ciclone pode se intensificar mais nas próximas 24 horas.

SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 110.7W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES
 
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