Tempestade Tropical GORDON (Atlântico 2024 #AL07)

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Afgdr

Cumulonimbus
Registo
28 Set 2011
Mensagens
2,372
Local
Lagoa - São Miguel, Açores
Formou-se a Depressão Tropical 7, o sétimo sistema tropical da época de furacões no Atlântico, com ventos máximos sustentados de 35 mph (56 km/h) e uma pressão mínima central de 1007 hPa.

18h15 UTC

sewnMAc.jpeg




Nos próximos dias, deverá movimentar-se para W/WNW.

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Deverá aumentar ligeiramente de intensidade nas próximas horas, atingindo a categoria de tempestade tropical.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 16.0N 28.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 16.6N 31.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 17.5N 34.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 18.6N 36.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 19.3N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 19.9N 41.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 20.3N 43.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 20.6N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 21.0N 48.8W 45 KT 50 MPH


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Previsão de rota + cone de incerteza NHC

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Abro o tópico para acompanhamento do sistema atendendo à possibilidade de atingir/atravessar águas açorianas, situação já modelada há alguns dias.
 
Abro o tópico para acompanhamento do sistema atendendo à possibilidade de atingir/atravessar águas açorianas, situação já modelada há alguns dias.
Sim, este ciclone pode ter uma vida longa e interessante.

Peço a um administrador que transfira para este tópico uma publicação já feita no tópico geral de seguimento dos furacões no Atlântico.
 
A Depressão Tropical 7 continua lenta em todos os aspectos, quer no seu movimento para ONO, na modificação desta trajectória e possível viragem para a direita, quer ainda na intensidade. Neste último aspecto está prevista chegar a tempestade tropical a 48 horas e manter-se nesse nível até pelo menos às 120 horas (5 dias).

TD-7_adv-04.png


000
WTNT42 KNHC 120846
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Thu Sep 12 2024

The system has changed little in organization overnight, with
limited deep convection and slight banding features. An
AMSR-2 microwave image suggested that the circulation was still
somewhat broad since the cloud bands were not very tightly curved.
Subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB were T2.5/35 kt
and T2.0/30 kt, respectively. The advisory intensity is held at 30
kt given the depression's lack of increased organization. This is
also in agreement with a DMINT objective intensity estimate from
UW-CIMSS based on the AMSR data.

The cyclone continues on a west-northwestward heading with an
estimated motion of 290/15 kt. A gradually weakening ridge over the
eastern subtropical Atlantic should maintain this general motion
with decreasing forward speed over the next 2-3 days. Later in the
forecast period, an amplifying trough is expected to erode the
ridge, which should cause the cyclone to turn at least a little to
the right. The track guidance becomes somewhat divergent in the 4-
to 5-day time frame, but is in overall agreement on a rather slow
motion. The official track forecast is similar to the previous NHC
prediction and close to the various dynamical model consensus
solutions.

Environmental conditions seem fairly conducive for at least gradual
strengthening during the next few days, with low- to
moderate-vertical wind shear and marginally warm SSTs. However, the
models are not very bullish on strengthening until near the end of
the forecast period. This may be due to a somewhat stable air mass
over the eastern Atlantic. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the Decay-SHIPS model guidance through 72 hours, but
shows no change after that time given the uncertainties in intensity
prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 17.3N 33.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 18.1N 34.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 18.9N 37.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 19.9N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 20.0N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 20.7N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 21.2N 47.1W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Imagem do satélite Terra, hoje às 11:50 utc.
TD-Seven_Terra-20240912-1150utc.jpg


Últimas imagens, organização lenta mas melhorando, pouca convecção profunda.

 
Última edição:
A depressão luta com alguma secura da atmosfera, previsão de intensidade em baixa, mas aparece no final do período a viragem para norte.
No entanto o GFS descarta a tropicalidade do sistema a um prazo maior.

TD-7_adv-08.webp


000
WTNT42 KNHC 130836
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seven Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Fri Sep 13 2024

The depression has an asymmetric structure due to moderate
west-northwesterly shear, with the center lying west of generally
shapeless convective clusters. Because there has largely been
little change in the system's organization, and there is quite a
range among the subjective and objective estimates, the intensity
remains 30 kt out of respect for continuity.

The initial motion is a little slower toward the west-northwest
(290/12 kt). A weakness in the subtropical ridge to the north of
the depression is becoming more pronounced, and the track guidance
indicates that the system should turn westward by tonight and slow
down further through much of the forecast period as it moves across
the central tropical Atlantic. In fact, by days 4 and 5, an
amplifying shortwave trough to the north is likely to cause the
cyclone to crawl at speeds near or less than 5 kt and gradually turn
northwestward. The official forecast is close to the previous
prediction during the first 60 hours, but then is adjusted westward
on days 3 through 5 following the latest model trends.

In terms of moisture, the environment across the tropical Atlantic
has not been kind to weather systems over the past couple of months.
The official forecast still allows for the possibility of the
depression becoming a tropical storm today or tonight, however an
even drier air mass to the west is likely to cause the cyclone to
continue struggling convectively. In fact, all of the global models
show the cyclone's wind field weakening over the weekend, with the
GFS suggesting the depression could degenerate into a remnant low.
For now, the NHC forecast keeps the system as a tropical cyclone for
the entire forecast period, but it does show weakening in a couple
of days. Some recovery is possible by days 4 and 5 when the system
reaches a slightly more moist and low-shear environment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 19.0N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 19.4N 39.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 19.7N 41.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 19.8N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 19.7N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 19.3N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 19.2N 49.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 20.5N 50.6W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
 
Quando as previsões de ciclones que podem chegar aos Açores não são grande coisa, há que voltar a um hábito antigo. Ver o COAMPS-TC, que não desilude.

76 nós a 120h (80 a 126). Dos modelos mais intensos.

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Voltando à realidade, não está famoso. Origem errada.

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Última edição:
NHC:

Continued shear, a dry mid-level atmosphere, and a subsident upper-level environment are likely to cause Gordon to weaken to a tropical depression later today. In fact, all of the global models show the wind field weakening and broadening during the next couple of days, and it's entirely possible that Gordon could degenerate into a remnant low at any time if deep convection wanes. If Gordon survives the next few days, the environment could become a little more conducive for strengthening toward the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, which lie near the lower bound of the guidance.

Quando as previsões de ciclones que podem chegar aos Açores não são grande coisa, há que voltar a um hábito antigo. Ver o COAMPS-TC, que não desilude.

Acabou... :D

rJIemNR.gif


... por agora. Agora é esperar pela resuscitação.

animxkg5.gif
 
Gordon arrastando-se, moribundo, ainda com a ideia de até onde queria chegar...

"Tropical Storm Gordon Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072024
500 AM AST Sun Sep 15 2024

[...]

Continued shear, a dry mid-level atmosphere, and a subsident
upper-level environment are likely to cause Gordon to weaken to a
tropical depression later today. In fact, all of the global models
show the wind field weakening and broadening during the next couple
of days, and it's entirely possible that Gordon could degenerate
into a remnant low at any time if deep convection wanes. If
Gordon survives the next few days, the environment could become a
little more conducive for strengthening toward the end of the
forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast generally follows a
blend of the GFS and ECMWF models, which lie near the lower bound of
the guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 19.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 19.5N 46.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 19.3N 47.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 19.1N 48.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 19.0N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 19.0N 50.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 19.2N 50.7W 25 KT 30 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 20.6N 50.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 23.0N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg "

Gordon-aviso 16.webp
 
Será que este Gordon vai seguir as pisadas do antecessor?

Para quem não se recorde: https://www.meteopt.com/forum/topico/furacao-gordon-atlantico-2012-al08.6632/

* antecessores

Não foi apenas o de 2012, um anterior Gordon de 2006 também passou pelos Açores (que foi um regresso de ciclones tropicais ao arquipélago depois de uns bons anos de ausência) mas até foi na Galiza e Minho que teve mais impacto, já na fase extratropical/pós-tropical. Foi muito mediático na altura.

Depois desse de 2012 o Gordon de 2018 quebrou essa tradição da família Gordon em apreciar as nossas águas, embora esse ano depois tenha gerado em Outubro o Leslie que também na fase pós-tropical teve imenso impacto quando entrou pela região centro de Portugal continental (pela zona da Figueira), os estragos ainda foram significativos.