Tempestade Tropical INGRID (Atlântico 2007 #09)

Vince

Furacão
Registo
23 Jan 2007
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Braga
Não há grandes mudanças com a Ingrid, a grande questão continua a ser se o LLC sobreviverá mais 2 ou 3 dias, se sobreviver as coisas poderão tornar-se diferentes a partir daí. Os modelos já divergem muito em relação a esse futuro.

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THE CENTER OF INGRID CANNOT BE SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...AND
THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. MY BEST...BUT
UNCERTAIN...GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. INGRID IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND SO THE FUTURE TRACK DEPENDS IN PART ON
HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN. EVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...HOWEVER...AND SO SOME KIND OF BEND TO THE RIGHT IS
EXPECTED EVEN IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK. A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
MOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED...AS MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE HWRF WIDE RIGHT WITH A NET
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 


Vince

Furacão
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Tal como referi nos post's desde ontem, a grande dúvida destes dias era saber se a Ingrid resistiria ao inferno do shear. Aparentemente sim, está a preservar o LLC, e já não falta muito para as condições hostis deste fim de semana começarem a diminuir gradualmente.

Daí que o NHC pela primeira vez já coloque a Ingrid a reintensificar-se novamente para tempestade tropical, lá para 5ªfeira.
A situação é bastante confusa e muito dificil de prever, e isso nota-se bem no tom do texto do meteorologista do NHC abaixo transcrita

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Discussion:

AFTER BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING...THE
SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF INGRID HAS AGAIN DETERIORATED. THE CLOUD
PATTERN HAS BECOME QUITE RAGGED...DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED...AND
THE LOW CLOUD LINES DEPICTING THE CIRCULATION HAVE BECOME
INDISTINCT. MOREOVER...A NUMBER OF ARC CLOUDS...IMPLYING LOW-LEVEL
DIVERGENCE...ARE SEEN EMANATING FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE TAFB
DVORAK ESTIMATE. WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RATHER
STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH MAKES SIGNIFICANT
INTENSIFICATION UNLIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. INDEED IF THE CURRENT
DISORGANIZING TREND CONTINUES...INGRID WILL WEAKEN. HOWEVER SOME
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
FLOW TO EVOLVE LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...IF INGRID
SURVIVES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...IT COULD BEGIN TO
RESTRENGTHEN IN 3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST ALLOWS
FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...AND IS SLIGHTLY BELOW THE LATEST LGEM AND
HWRF GUIDANCE AT THAT TIME FRAME. ALTERNATIVELY THE GFDL NOW
DISSIPATES THE CYCLONE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND AND THERE IS A LOT OF
SPREAD IN LOCATION ESTIMATES THIS AFTERNOON. CONSEQUENTLY THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 285/9. THE STEERING
CURRENTS FOR INGRID ARE NOT WELL-DEFINED. THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO WEAKEN DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH WOULD BRING ABOUT A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
RIGHT. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE WEST-CENTRAL ATLANTIC
IN 3-4 DAYS MIGHT BE JUST A LITTLE TOO FAR EAST TO HAVE A DIRECT
INFLUENCE ON INGRID'S MOTION. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST SLOWS
THE FORWARD SPEED TO LESS THAN 5 KT LATER IN THE PERIOD...AND IS
NOT FAR FROM THE CONU DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF INGRID SINCE IT IS POSSIBLE FOR THE SYSTEM TO MOVE MORE
TO THE LEFT OF OUR FORECAST TRACK. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
IS SCHEDULED TO FLY A RESEARCH MISSION INTO THE CYCLONE AROUND 0000
UTC AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO PROVIDE A POSITION AND INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 

Vince

Furacão
Registo
23 Jan 2007
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Não é fácil o trabalho dos meteorologistas. Depois de ontem ter dado sinais de que estaria a resistir mais do que se suponha antes, nas últimas 6 horas quase que parece que se dissipou. O NHC voltou a colocar a previsão dos próximos dias para depressão tropical, provavelmente por segurança, a ver o que acontece hoje. Esperemos que seja mesmo a morte dela e que não haja surpresas pois começa novamente a ter o trajecto demasiado próximo das ilhas.

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WEAKENS JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN
LEEWARD ISLANDS. AT 17/0300 UTC IT IS CENTERED NEAR 17.4N 59.4W
OR ABOUT 140 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES MOVING WEST AT 8 KT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC.
DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH INGRID HAS DISAPPEARED AND THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO DISSIPATE SINCE SUNDAY EVENING. A
SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 35 NM
RADIUS OF 17N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14N-16N BETWEEN 57W-59W. THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST KEEPS THE CYCLONE AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION
THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD...BUT IT MIGHT NOT BE A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR NEARLY THAT LONG. INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF INGRID.
 

Rog

Cumulonimbus
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6 Set 2006
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Norte Madeira (500m)
O NHC na última actualização, antevê uma dissipação até amanhã, emitiu também o seu ultimo aviso sobre o Ingrid, (a não ser que ocorra desenvolvimentos significativos e entao retomem os avisos publicos regulares).

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...INGRID DISSIPATING EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...

SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
INGRID IS DISSIPATING.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF THE DISSIPATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 60.0
WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...195 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTIGUA.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. THE
REMNANTS OF INGRID ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...IN A FEW SQUALLS. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...17.5 N...60.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB.

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER
ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS.
 

Vince

Furacão
Registo
23 Jan 2007
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Local
Braga
A INGRID aparentemente rescuscitou...

Apesar de não estar no site do NHC, está no do NRL, pelo que já deve ser oficial.
E se preserva o nome é porque nunca chegou a perder a LLC original, pelo que como mandam as regras, mantem o nome.

Em breve deve haver avisos do NHC.


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