Tempestade Tropical Ingrid (Atlântico 2013 #AL09)

Afgdr

Nimbostratus
Registo
28 Set 2011
Mensagens
1,880
Local
Lagoa - São Miguel, Açores
Formou-se a 9ª tempestade tropical da temporada no Atlântico, a Tempestade Tropical Ingrid.


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Daniel253

Cirrus
Registo
9 Out 2010
Mensagens
62
Local
Açores S.Miguel
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Código:
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102013
400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF COLDER
THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER AND INCREASING OUTER BANDING IN ALL
QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST.  A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0420 UTC SHOWED
A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE....ALTHOUGH DATA FROM
THE MEXICAN RADAR IN ALVARADO SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE BEEN
TRANSIENT.   SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND
45 KT FROM SAB.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT...PERHAPS
CONSERVATIVELY...PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

INGRID HAS STARTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 015/3. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST
AND THEN THE WEST AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME NOTABLE
ISSUES OF SPREAD. FIRST...THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR A MORE
NORTHEASTWARD INITIAL MOTION BEFORE THE WESTWARD TURN...WITH BOTH
MODELS LYING TO THE EAST OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. SECOND...THE
GUIDANCE LANDFALL POINTS IN MEXICO ARE SPREAD FROM TUXPAN TO NORTH
OF LA PESCA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
HOWEVER...THE MODEL SPREAD INDICATES A LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE
IN THE FORECAST.

THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INGRID WILL CONTINUE TO
EXPERIENCE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST 15-25 KT OF SHEAR DURING THE FIRST 24
HOURS...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS LESS SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT.  THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST INGRID TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...WHILE
THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND
SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL.  SINCE THE CURRENT SHEAR HAS
NOT STOPPED INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALONG WITH SHIPS AND LGEM...AND
MAKES INGRID A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT
THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE
COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/0900Z 19.8N  95.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  14/1800Z 20.5N  95.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  15/0600Z 21.5N  95.7W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  15/1800Z 22.2N  96.6W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  16/0600Z 22.4N  97.7W   70 KT  80 MPH...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO
 72H  17/0600Z 22.5N  99.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 

Afgdr

Nimbostratus
Registo
28 Set 2011
Mensagens
1,880
Local
Lagoa - São Miguel, Açores
As chuvas torrenciais e os ventos fortes que assolaram o México, na costa Oeste e na costa Leste, devido ao Furacão Ingrid e à Tempestade Tropical Manuel respetivamente, originaram muitas cheias e derrocadas, provocando 34 mortes e muitos desalojados.

Notícia do BBC

16 September 2013 Last updated at 20:01 GMT

Mexico hit by Hurricane Ingrid and Tropical Storm Manuel

Mexico storms kill at least 34 and leave thousands homeless

At least 34 people have been killed in Mexico by two powerful storms battering the country simultaneously, one on its east and another on its west coast.

Hurricane Ingrid sent thousands to shelters on Mexico's western Gulf Coast before it was downgraded to a tropical storm just before it made landfall.

It is dumping torrential rains as it moves west-northwest through Tamaulipas state at a speed of 13km/h (8mph).

On the Pacific coast, Tropical Storm Manuel also caused widespread damage.

Twenty-two people were killed in the region, most of them in Guerrero state. The other victims were in Hidalgo, Puebla and Oaxaca.

A landslide in the town of Altotonga, in eastern Veracruz state, has killed 12 people. Rescue services are looking for survivors.

Ingrid weakening

Ingrid made landfall near the town of La Pesca in north-eastern Tamaulipas state on Monday.


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Tropical Storm Manuel caused extensive damage on Mexico's Pacific coast.



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The main highway in south-western Guerrero state was closed after buses overturned in flood waters.



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Even though the storm weakened to a tropical depression on Sunday, floodwaters were not receding.



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Some 2,000 residents were moved to shelters or stayed with friends and relatives.



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Six members of one family were killed when their house collapsed in a landslide in Acapulco.



It currently has maximum sustained winds of 75km/h (45 mph).

It has weakened since hitting land, and is expected to dissipate on Tuesday, but forecasters at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center (NHC) warned Ingrid could still cause deadly flash floods and mudslides.

They said the storm could dump as much as 38cm (15 inches) of rain over parts of eastern Mexico.

Six thousand people were evacuated as the category one hurricane approached the coast. Celebrations marking Mexico's independence day were cancelled in many coastal towns.


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State oil company Pemex said it had evacuated three platforms off the coast of Tamaulipas and closed two dozen wells in the area.

Ingrid arrived just a day after Tropical Storm Manuel hit Mexico's Pacific Coast. The resort city of Acapulco was among those worst hit.

Eleven people are confirmed to have died there, six of them members of the same family whose house collapsed in a landslide.

Cars were dragged away in fast-flowing floodwaters and the airport has been closed.

Three more people were killed in landslides in surrounding Guerrero state. More than 20,000 homes have lost power.

President Henrique Pena Nieto is travelling to Acapulco to assess the damage. Government minister have been despatched to the most affected regions.

On Sunday, Manuel was downgraded from a Tropical Storm to a Tropical Depression, but was forecast to dump more rain on the already sodden area.

The last time the country was hit by two tropical storms in the span of 24 hours was in 1958, according to National Weather Service coordinator Juan Manuel Caballero.



http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-24098184