Tempestade Tropical MELISSA (Atlântico 2007 #13)

Rog

Cumulonimbus
Registo
6 Set 2006
Mensagens
4,515
Local
Norte Madeira (500m)
Hoje durante a manhã, a depressão tropical 14 tornou-se a Tempestade tropical Melissa, a 13ª com nome.


Aviso Publico do NHC:
...SE FORMA LA DECIMOTERCERA TORMENTA DE LA TEMPORADA EN EL LEJANDO
ATLANTICO ORIENTAL...

A LAS 500 AM AST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL
CATORCE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.1 NORTE...LONGITUD
27.4 OESTE O COMO A 260 MILLAS...420 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE SUROESTE
DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO VERDE.

LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH...6
KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE
A UNA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION MAS RAPIDA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24
HORAS...LO QUE ALEJARA LA DEPRESION AUN MAS DE LAS ISLAS DE CABO
VERDE.

LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN EN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65
KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ES POSIBLE UN
FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS.

LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HASTA 70
MILLAS...110 KILOMETROS DESDE EL CENTRO.

LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARES..29.68
PULGADAS.

084033wsmuh9.gif
 

Vince

Furacão
Registo
23 Jan 2007
Mensagens
10,624
Local
Braga
Os modelos já não tem tanta tendência dela vir mais para os nossos lados como tinham ontem à noite.

melissa.gif


Segundo as discussions, vai ter a vida complicada daqui a dois dias.

DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. 0319Z MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE CIRCULATION
CENTER WAS UNDER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY...BUT
SUBSEQUENT GOES IMAGES HINT THAT THE CONVECTION IS WRAPPING MORE
AROUND THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 06Z
WERE A CONSENSUS 30 KT...BUT OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE HIGHER AND
PROVIDE THE BASIS FOR UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM WITH
35 KT MAXIMUM WINDS.

IT IS CLEAR THAT THE DEPRESSION IS BARELY MOVING...BUT THE EXACT
INITIAL MOTION IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESTIMATED TO BE 270/3. THE
CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...LACKING A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH DUE TO A DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. AS THAT LOW PROCEEDS
EASTWARD...ALL OF THE MODELS DEPICT SOME RIDGING TO GRADUALLY BUILD
BACK IN OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC...BUT THEY DO NOT AGREE
ON HOW THE TRACK OF THE DEPRESSION WILL RESPOND.
THE HWRF PROVIDES
THE NORTHERNMOST SOLUTION...TAKING THE CYCLONE IMMEDIATELY
NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ARE THE
SOUTHERN EXTREMES. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS SEEM TO HAVE SHIFTED
AGAIN TO THE LEFT...AND SO HAS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...WHICH CALLS
FOR THE CYCLONE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION
THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY PERIOD.


THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY RESIDES IN A RELATIVELY WEAK-SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A BELT OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL
WESTERLIES. THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
A LITTLE STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...BUT THEN IT
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 48 HOURS WHEN
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PEAKS AT
40 KT...SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN ALL OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...BUT
CALLS FOR THE DEPRESSION TO DISSIPATE IN LESS THAN FIVE DAYS IN THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT LIES AHEAD LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.

melissa-1.jpg
 

Vince

Furacão
Registo
23 Jan 2007
Mensagens
10,624
Local
Braga
A MELISSA recuperou algum vigor depois de hoje ter ficado com o centro exposto, mas dentro de dias provavelmente terá o mesmo destino da KAREN.

p-18.gif


AFTER BEING EXPOSED FOR A FEW HOURS...NEW DEEP CONVECTION HAS
REGENERATED NEAR THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...
PRIMARILY OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS FROM SAB AS WELL AS THOSE
PROVIDED BY UW-CIMSS INDICATE THAT MELISSA IS STILL A 35-KNOT
TROPICAL STORM. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 15 TO 20
KNOTS OVER MELISSA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE CYCLONE COULD
KEEP ITS STORM STATUS FOR THAT PERIOD. THEREAFTER...BOTH SHEAR AND
A COOL OCEAN WILL LIKELY TAKE A TOLL ON MELISSA. THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IF
NOT EARLIER.

MELISSA APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300
DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A MODEST SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO EXPAND A LITTLE AND THIS PATTERN
WILL KEEP THE CYCLONE ON THIS GENERAL TRACK. IN THE LAST
RUN...MODELS KEEP MELISSA A LITTLE LONGER...AND ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT MOVING THE CYCLONE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE
OT THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 

Vince

Furacão
Registo
23 Jan 2007
Mensagens
10,624
Local
Braga
Como previsto, a Tempestade Tropical MELISSA foi muito afectada pelo windshear tendo baixado de categoria, para depressao tropical, e assim se deve manter durante alguns dias segundo as previsões do NHC. Mas é possível que também se acabe por dissipar à semelhança da KAREN.

144030W_sm.gif


STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON MELISSA. AFTER MOST OF
THE CONVECTION DISSIPATED ABOUT 12 HOURS AGO...THE CYCLONE HAS ONLY
BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE SMALL PULSATING BURSTS OF CONVECTION THAT
HAVE EACH LASTED ABOUT 3 HOURS. AN 0818 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS SUGGESTS
THAT THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME LESS-DEFINED. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THAT WHATEVER CENTER REMAINS IS TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...REQUIRING A RELOCATION FOR THIS ADVISORY.
THE QUIKSCAT DATA SHOW THAT THE WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO ABOUT 25 KT
AND MELISSA IS DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/11. SINCE MELISSA IS BECOMING A
SHALLOW SYSTEM IT SHOULD BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. THEREAFTER...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS
BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD MAINLY DUE TO THE RELOCATION...AND IS CLOSER
TO THE HWRF AND GFDL SOLUTIONS.

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOSTILE AS
WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO PERSIST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
MAINTAINS MELISSA AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO. HOWEVER...IF THE CIRCULATION CENTER CONTINUES TO BECOME
LESS DEFINED AND THE DEPRESSION DOES NOT GENERATE ENOUGH ORGANIZED
CONVECTION...IT COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW MUCH SOONER.