Tempestade Tropical PAULETTE (Atlântico 2020 #AL16)

Thomar

Thomar

Cumulonimbus
Registo
19 Dez 2007
Mensagens
3,211
Local
Cabanas - Palmela (75m)
Olá Paulette:


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

...PAULETTE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 25.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


QJQDxZa.png
 
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Thomar disse:
Olá Paulette:


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

...PAULETTE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 25.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


QJQDxZa.png
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Marcha a ré... :intrigante:Duvido... Agora os sistemas tropicais ou subtropicais habituaram-se as costas portuguesas, não querem outra coisa :D
 
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AL172020_track.png


Quando depressões estacionam - especialmente - a sul dos Açores, há sempre esse risco. Está-se na altura típica.

Paulette is moving east-northeastward or 075/14 kt. The tropical storm should continue moving east-northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough dropping southeastward over the northeastern Atlantic, and the global models are in reasonably good agreement through 24-36 hours. After that time, there is significant bifurcation in the track guidance with the GFS, HWRF, and HMON all taking a stronger Paulette faster east-northeastward over the eastern Atlantic, while the UKMET and ECMWF show a weaker cyclone slowing down and turning west-southwestward in the low-level steering flow late in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast shows Paulette slowing down and turning southward, and then southwestward between 48-96 h, but it's not nearly as far west as the UKMET and ECMWF models. Given the large spread in the track guidance at that time period, the NHC forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus.
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dAq66yZ.png

OFCL = NHC
BEST = trajeto observado
AVNO = GFS
 
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145051_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png



BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

...PAULETTE WEAKENS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 22.3W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 22.3 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h). An east to
east-northeast motion is expected through Wednesday. A slowing of
forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south are
expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward motion
is forecast to begin by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a
remnant low within the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto
 
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Y-CacvlsC14HeNGBUXw1GtvFjiddZ6rQE6Oese-VOUa59Bde04My2K33YoGccd34XAOZ-85iY6mKrO38yDeODwIGUWOJVs7zgkT1LM2tgdwzMBR1AHfzI-zWGJFBrjDyUq6T=s0-d-e1-ft


TEMPESTADE TROPICAL PAULETTE - MADEIRA - COMUNICADO Nº1

Informação Meteorológica Comunicado válido entre 2020-09-22 17:09 e 2020-09-24 17:09 TEMPESTADE TROPICAL PAULETTE - MADEIRA - COMUNICADO Nº1 COMUNICADO No 001/2020Data: 22-09-2020 18:00 Hora da Madeira (UTC+1)TEMPESTADE TROPICAL PAULETTE.


O IPMA informa que às 15:00 UTC (16:00 hora local na Madeira) de 22 de setembro de 2020, o centro da tempestade tropical Paulette, localizava-se a 535 km a sueste (SE) dos Açores e 560 km a oes- noroeste (WNW) da ilha da Madeira. De acordo com o Centro Nacional de Furacões de Miami (NHC), a tempestade tropical Paulette irá deslocar-se para és-nordeste (ENE) com uma velocidade de 22 km/h, situando-se a cerca de 300 km a norte da ilha da Madeira às 12:00 UTC (13:00 hora local na Madeira) de 23 de setembro.O vento às 15:00 UTC de 22 setembro era de 65 km/h e rajadas superiores num raio de cerca 95 km à volta da tempestade. Segundo o NHC a tempestade tropical Paulette passará a depressão tropical à s 12:00 UTC (13:00 hora local na Madeira) de 23 de setembro e a depressão pós-tropical às 12:00 UTC (13:00 hora local na Madeira) do dia 24, com diminuição da intensidade do vento e mudança de rumo para sudoeste. Segundo esta previsão do NHC, há apenas cerca de 10% de probabilidade da ilha da Madeira ser atingida com vento de intensidade de tempestade tropical, ou seja, vento superior a 63 km/h. Assim, prevê-se, para amanhã, dia 23, vento moderado a forte de sudoeste até 40 km/h e aguaceiros por vezes fortes e acompanhados de trovoada.

Este comunicado será atualizado às 18h locais do dia 23 de setembro. Ter, 22 Set 2020 17:09:23
 
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A Paulette está a morrer (pela segunda vez), tendo perdido novamente as categoria de tempestade tropical. Paulette é agora pós-tropical e o NHC prevê que se dissipe nos próximos dias depois de fazer uma curva de quase 180º.

Quantas vidas tem este sistema? Será que ainda se consegue reorganizar?

-> NHC

...PAULETTE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE SECOND TIME...

000
WTNT31 KNHC 230236
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020

...PAULETTE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE SECOND TIME...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 20.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM ESE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Paulette was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 20.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19
km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast through
midday Wednesday. A decrease in the forward motion along with turns
to the southeast then south are expected late Wednesday through
Thursday. A west-southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late
this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical cyclone is
expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Paulette. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

$$
Forecaster Brown
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