FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 13/0900Z 33.6N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 34.5N 40.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 35.6N 40.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 36.5N 39.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 36.9N 39.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 36.7N 39.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 36.5N 39.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 36.5N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 38.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
Margot is forecast to become caught in
weak steering currents, with the global models showing a blocking
ridge developing to the north of the cyclone by late week into the
weekend. There are significant differences between the GFS and ECMWF
with regards to the strength and position of this ridge, which has
large implications in the longer-range track of Margot. Based on the
overall shift in the guidance suite this cycle, the latest NHC
forecast shows little net motion between 36-72 h as Margot meanders
over the central Atlantic. This is a fairly large departure from the
previous advisory, but better represents the latest consensus track
solutions. At days 4-5, most models (except for the ECMWF) show the
ridge sliding eastward, but overall track forecast confidence is
very low and larger future adjustments could be necessary.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/0900Z 35.9N 40.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 36.4N 39.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 36.6N 39.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 36.4N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 35.9N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 35.4N 40.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 35.2N 42.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 37.5N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 40.5N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 14/2100Z 36.9N 39.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 36.9N 38.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 36.4N 38.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 35.8N 39.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 35.4N 40.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 17/0600Z 35.4N 41.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 35.7N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 38.6N 42.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 40.2N 37.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 36.7N 38.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 36.3N 38.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 35.7N 38.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 35.1N 40.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 34.8N 41.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 35.3N 43.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 36.5N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 39.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 40.0N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 16/0900Z 35.0N 38.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 34.5N 39.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 34.3N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 34.8N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 36.0N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 18/1800Z 37.7N 41.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 38.9N 39.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 38.5N 33.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 21/0600Z 38.5N 29.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/0900Z 34.0N 41.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 34.5N 42.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 18/0600Z 35.8N 43.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 18/1800Z 37.4N 42.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 19/0600Z 38.2N 39.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 19/1800Z 38.0N 35.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 20/0600Z 37.0N 33.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 21/0600Z 36.5N 31.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED