Tempestade Tropical GRACE (Atlântico 2015 #AL07)

Tópico em 'Tempo Tropical' iniciado por Vince 5 Set 2015 às 22:21.

  1. Vince

    Vince
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    23 Jan 2007
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    Local:
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    Mais uma onda tropical saída de África a evoluir para ciclone tropical, desta vez com o nome de GRACE.
    A título de curiosidade, a última Grace foi de 2009, seguida na altura com muito interesse aqui no fórum, teve uma génese bastante rara e andou pelas nossas águas. Mas nestes dias será o Fred a atrair as atenções por cá.


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    TROPICAL STORM GRACE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072015
    500 PM AST SAT SEP 05 2015

    The depression's cloud pattern has gradually increased in
    organization since the last advisory. A band over the southwestern
    portion of the circulation has taken more shape, with cloud tops
    cooling slightly during the last several hours. Microwave and
    conventional satellite imagery also suggest that some inner-core
    structural organization has already developed. Dvorak intensity
    estimates were T2.5/ 35 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC, so the
    initial intensity estimate is 35 kt.

    Large-scale conditions should be conducive for some intensification
    during the next 24 to 36 hours, with the depression embedded in an
    environment of light easterly shear and over warm SSTs. The one
    caveat is that a general drying of the lower to middle troposphere
    in the near-storm environment is forecast, possibly due to
    increasing subsidence, which could squelch additional strengthening.
    After 48 hours, the cyclone is forecast to encounter westerly flow
    aloft associated with an enhanced upper-level trough extending from
    near the Antilles to the eastern tropical Atlantic. This pattern
    should produce enough vertical shear to cause weakening or possibly
    even dissipation by day 4 or 5 of the forecast. The new intensity
    forecast shows slightly greater intensification in the short term
    relative to the previous one, with a peak in 36 hours, and
    greater weakening at the end of the forecast.

    The initial motion estimate is 280/12. A low- to mid-level ridge
    over the subtropical Atlantic should keep the cyclone on a westward
    to west-northwestward track throughout the forecast period. The
    new track forecast is faster than the previous one, especially at
    the extended range, and on the south side of guidance envelope in
    best agreement with the FSU Superensemble and ECMWF model solution.
    This makes intuitive sense, since a weaker system would likely track
    farther south and move faster.
     
  2. Felipe Freitas

    Felipe Freitas
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    11 Fev 2012
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    Local:
    Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil

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