Não há grandes mudanças com a Ingrid, a grande questão continua a ser se o LLC sobreviverá mais 2 ou 3 dias, se sobreviver as coisas poderão tornar-se diferentes a partir daí. Os modelos já divergem muito em relação a esse futuro.
THE CENTER OF INGRID CANNOT BE SEEN IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY...AND
THERE HAVEN'T BEEN ANY RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES. MY BEST...BUT
UNCERTAIN...GUESS AT THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10. INGRID IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A RELATIVELY HIGH-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR THE
NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS...AND SO THE FUTURE TRACK DEPENDS IN PART ON
HOW MUCH DEEP CONVECTION THE SYSTEM CAN MAINTAIN. EVEN THE
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL
MODELS...HOWEVER...AND SO SOME KIND OF BEND TO THE RIGHT IS
EXPECTED EVEN IF THE CYCLONE REMAINS WEAK. A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD
MOTION IS ALSO EXPECTED...AS MID-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS ARE
EXPECTED TO SLOWLY BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE HWRF WIDE RIGHT WITH A NET
NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK...AND THE ECMWF ON THE LEFT TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND GFDL.
FORECASTER FRANKLIN