... Western Iberia ...
Model outputs are consistent in developing a quickly translating low pressure system in the exit region of a jet-streak, in the forward flank of the short wave trough. In the warm sector of the low, strong LLJ, reaching over 25 m/s at 850 hPa level is simulated, transporting dew points over 16°C to the western coasts of Iberia. Low to moderate degree of instability is predicted, with MLCAPE values very likely exceeding 500 J/kg over the ocean. Questionable is, of course, the progress of unstable airmass inland, but the confidence remains high, that at least the elevated instability will be able to persist within the broad south-southwesterly LLJ.
Very strong wind fields will likely result in a high values of wind shear, especially that confined to the lower levels of troposphere (LLS inland over 15 m/s and SREH 0-1 km over 300 J/kg). Well organised convection is likely, albeit the more probable form, given the very strong forcing and widespread initiation, is one or more MCS. The strongest forcing and highest shear values will be observed over the SW Iberia during the late evening and night hours, in conjuction with the passage of the sharp trough.
Current thinking is, that the greatest threat will be posed by the excessive precipitation, especially in the northern reaches of Level 2. Several rounds of storms are possible in the area and forecast soundings revealed an environment characterised by strong LLJ and very humid profiles. With LLJ impinging on the coastal areas, strong convergence and upslope flow should result in widespread initiation with potential for cell training. Towards the south, tornado and severe wind gust threat should be more amplified, as the instability in this region might stay rooted in the boundary layer and also the best shear vertical wind profiles will exist here. If an isolated stronger updraft manages to develop, marginally severe hail can not be ruled out either, albeit this threat should be relatively meager compared to the other ones. The overall threat will be the greatest during the evening to night hours.