O Tufão EWINIAR a NW das Filipinas e com uma trajectória que o coloca em direcção ao sul da China ou do Japão.
Época de furacões 2006 (Pacifico Norte)
- Thread starter Dan
- Data de início
Seringador
Cumulonimbus
As últimas:
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT
625 NMI SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM THE TAFB.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO
THE NORTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS IS THAT THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED ALONG 25N LATITUDE WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION. THE SLOWER
THAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF ONLY 7-8 KT IS POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME
INTERACTION WITH A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE...PROBABLY THE NEXT
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP...LOCATED ABOUT 900 NMI TO THE EAST.
THAT SYSTEM IS MOVING FASTER THAN TD-3E...SO THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION IMPARTED TO THE DEPRESSION IN 24-48
HOURS AS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS GRADUALLY INCREASES.
A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN INDUCING WEAK NORTHERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES THAT
LOW HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME ELONGATED EAST-WEST...PRODUCING
NORTHWESTERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEPRESSION...THUS DECREASING THE SHEAR. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AT LEAST SLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL FORECAST WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 12.5N 110.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 12.8N 111.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 13.2N 113.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 13.6N 114.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 14.0N 115.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 14.8N 118.6W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 16.0N 124.5W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE LOCATED ABOUT
625 NMI SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED
ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE DESIGNATED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED ON A DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0/30 KT FROM THE TAFB.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS FAIR IN ALL QUADRANTS...EXCEPT RESTRICTED TO
THE NORTH.
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/07. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONG
THE GLOBAL MODELS IS THAT THE EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED ALONG 25N LATITUDE WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH MOST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A DEEP EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION. THE SLOWER
THAN AVERAGE FORWARD SPEED OF ONLY 7-8 KT IS POSSIBLY DUE TO SOME
INTERACTION WITH A MUCH LARGER DISTURBANCE...PROBABLY THE NEXT
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO DEVELOP...LOCATED ABOUT 900 NMI TO THE EAST.
THAT SYSTEM IS MOVING FASTER THAN TD-3E...SO THERE MAY BE SOME WEAK
SOUTHERLY COMPONENT OF MOTION IMPARTED TO THE DEPRESSION IN 24-48
HOURS AS INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS GRADUALLY INCREASES.
A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN INDUCING WEAK NORTHERLY SHEAR AND DRY AIR
INTRUSIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN INHIBITING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS INDICATES THAT
LOW HAS WEAKENED AND BECOME ELONGATED EAST-WEST...PRODUCING
NORTHWESTERLY INSTEAD OF NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
DEPRESSION...THUS DECREASING THE SHEAR. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR AT LEAST SLOW STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL FORECAST WAS CLOSELY FOLLOWED FOR THIS ADVISORY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 11/0300Z 12.5N 110.6W 30 KT
12HR VT 11/1200Z 12.8N 111.7W 35 KT
24HR VT 12/0000Z 13.2N 113.0W 40 KT
36HR VT 12/1200Z 13.6N 114.4W 45 KT
48HR VT 13/0000Z 14.0N 115.8W 55 KT
72HR VT 14/0000Z 14.8N 118.6W 60 KT
96HR VT 15/0000Z 15.5N 121.5W 60 KT
120HR VT 16/0000Z 16.0N 124.5W 55 KT
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Seringador
Cumulonimbus
Boas,
Parece que a Carlota e o Bud, separados por 650nm um do outro?
Mas pq é que o BUD está classificado de cat.2 e Carlota como tempestade Tropical? (o primeiro é o BUD e o 2º Carlota)
Eue sei a resposta mas vocês sabem-na?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/hpir.html
http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag355.html
Visão geral do Pacífico
http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag6.html
Parece que a Carlota e o Bud, separados por 650nm um do outro?
Mas pq é que o BUD está classificado de cat.2 e Carlota como tempestade Tropical? (o primeiro é o BUD e o 2º Carlota)
Eue sei a resposta mas vocês sabem-na?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/hpir.html
http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag355.html
Visão geral do Pacífico
http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag6.html
Seringador disse:Boas,
Parece que a Carlota e o Bud, separados por 650nm um do outro?
Mas pq é que o BUD está classificado de cat.2 e Carlota como tempestade Tropical? (o primeiro é o BUD e o 2º Carlota)
Eue sei a resposta mas vocês sabem-na?
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/hpir.html
http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag355.html
Visão geral do Pacífico
http://www.weatherimages.org/data/imag6.html
O carlota as 10h tinha estas caracteristicas...
Wed 12 Jul 10:00 14.1N/103.9W 315° 19 km/h ??? 65 km/h ??? storm
daqui ainda não ser classificado como furação...
Olha as caracteristicas do bud :
Wed 12 Jul 10:00 15N/115.3W ??? ??? ??? 157 km/h ??? Hurricane
http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/storm_nep.htm
Passei no teste???? hahahahaha
Já agora...fica fica a escala utilizada na classificação dos furcaoes:
Tropical Storm
Winds 39-73 mph
Category 1 Hurricane — winds 74-95 mph (119-153 km/hr)
No real damage to buildings. Damage to unanchored mobile homes. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal flooding and minor pier damage.
- Examples: Irene 1999 and Allison 1995
Category 2 Hurricane — winds 96-110 mph (154-177 km/hr)
Some damage to building roofs, doors and windows. Considerable damage to mobile homes. Flooding damages piers and small craft in unprotected moorings may break their moorings. Some trees blown down.
- Examples: Bonnie 1998, Georges(FL & LA) 1998 and Gloria 1985
Category 3 Hurricane — winds 111-130 mph (178-209 km/hr)
Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings. Large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly built signs destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may be flooded well inland.
- Examples: Keith 2000, Fran 1996, Opal 1995, Alicia 1983 and Betsy 1965
Category 4 Hurricane — winds 131-155 mph (210-249 km/hr)
More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failure on small residences. Major erosion of beach areas. Terrain may be flooded well inland.
- Examples: Hugo 1989 and Donna 1960
Category 5 Hurricane — winds 156 mph and up (249 km/hr)
Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Flooding causes major damage to lower floors of all structures near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required.
- Examples: Andrew(FL) 1992, Camille 1969 and Labor Day 1935
Tropical Storm
Winds 39-73 mph
Category 1 Hurricane — winds 74-95 mph (119-153 km/hr)
No real damage to buildings. Damage to unanchored mobile homes. Some damage to poorly constructed signs. Also, some coastal flooding and minor pier damage.
- Examples: Irene 1999 and Allison 1995
Category 2 Hurricane — winds 96-110 mph (154-177 km/hr)
Some damage to building roofs, doors and windows. Considerable damage to mobile homes. Flooding damages piers and small craft in unprotected moorings may break their moorings. Some trees blown down.
- Examples: Bonnie 1998, Georges(FL & LA) 1998 and Gloria 1985
Category 3 Hurricane — winds 111-130 mph (178-209 km/hr)
Some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings. Large trees blown down. Mobile homes and poorly built signs destroyed. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures with larger structures damaged by floating debris. Terrain may be flooded well inland.
- Examples: Keith 2000, Fran 1996, Opal 1995, Alicia 1983 and Betsy 1965
Category 4 Hurricane — winds 131-155 mph (210-249 km/hr)
More extensive curtainwall failures with some complete roof structure failure on small residences. Major erosion of beach areas. Terrain may be flooded well inland.
- Examples: Hugo 1989 and Donna 1960
Category 5 Hurricane — winds 156 mph and up (249 km/hr)
Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Flooding causes major damage to lower floors of all structures near the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required.
- Examples: Andrew(FL) 1992, Camille 1969 and Labor Day 1935
Luis França
Nimbostratus
Seringador
Cumulonimbus
dj_alex disse:
Lamento mas, tiveste um 9,2
A razão é que: o mais inportante é a sua organização do que a sua grandeza de convecção isto para uma classificação!