Época Furacões (Atlântico 2006)

Tópico em 'Tempo Tropical' iniciado por dj_alex 11 Jun 2006 às 12:27.

  1. Seringador

    Seringador
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    29 Ago 2005
    Mensagens:
    2,984
    Local:
    Canelas - Vila Nova de Gaia
    Não sei não Miguel, se ao menos existisse uma anomalia positiva da temperatura da sup. mar e que não existisse um núcleo de altas pressões a Nw de Cuba, assim o potencial é diminuto.;) :)
     
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  2. Luis França

    Luis França
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    Nimbostratus

    Registo:
    23 Mai 2006
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    1,467
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    Hades
  3. miguel

    miguel
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    4 Fev 2006
    Mensagens:
    13,487
    Local:
    Setúbal
    esta tempestade esta a "morrer" aos poucos!!a menos que ocorra fortes convecções perto do centro ai poderia se regenerar de novo caso contrario estará condenada, aposto que se esta tempestade surgisse mais para o fim deste mes ou Setembro e mesmo Outubro que as cosas seriam diferentes!!:p
     
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  4. Seringador

    Seringador
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    29 Ago 2005
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    Local:
    Canelas - Vila Nova de Gaia
    Talvez sim, talvez não...:D :p
     
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  5. Luis França

    Luis França
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    Nimbostratus

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    A ver vamos :lol:

    No entanto ( http://www.palmbeachpost.com/storm/content/shared-blogs/palmbeach/storm/ ) dizem que:

    "THE COMBINATION OF DRY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AIR AND SHEAR ... ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE THAT DROPPED SOUTHWARD INTO CHRIS...HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON THE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

    "... DATA FROM THE LAST AERIAL RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SUGGESTED THAT CHRIS MAY HAVE ALREADY DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY. IF IT HAS NOT...IT WILL LIKELY DO SO VERY SOON UNLESS SOME DEEP CONVECTION REDEVELOPS NEAR THE CENTER."

    com esta imagem de previsão http://icons.wunderground.com/data/images/at200603_5day.gif

    Está muito chocha esta época de furacões :disgust: , mesmo assim temos 4 de momento - http://satellite.ehabich.info/hurricane-watch.htm

    Talvez para Setembro/ Outubro apareça um digno ... :p
     
  6. Seringador

    Seringador
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    29 Ago 2005
    Mensagens:
    2,984
    Local:
    Canelas - Vila Nova de Gaia
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  7. dj_alex

    dj_alex
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    Nimbostratus

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  8. Minho

    Minho
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    6 Set 2005
    Mensagens:
    4,091
    Local:
    Melgaço
    Re: Epoca Furações 2006 (Atl. Norte)

    Começamos a chegar a Setembro.... estatisticamente têm que começar a aparecer os furacões, senão mais outro ano anormal desta vez por defeito...
     
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  9. dj_alex

    dj_alex
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    Nimbostratus

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2005
    Mensagens:
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    Local:
    Lisboa
    Re: Epoca Furações 2006 (Atl. Norte)

    Tem andando muito calminho...
    Ou vamos andar a ter comboios de furações e tempestades tropicais..ou então é como o Minho diz...mais um ano anormal..
     
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  10. miguel

    miguel
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    4 Fev 2006
    Mensagens:
    13,487
    Local:
    Setúbal
    Re: Epoca Furações 2006 (Atl. Norte)

    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 232023
    TCDAT4
    TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
    500 PM EDT WED AUG 23 2006

    THE ORGANIZATION OF DEBBY HAS DETERIORATED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS
    AFTERNOON...WITH THE CIRCULATION CENTER RUNNING NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD
    OF DECAYING CONVECTION. WHILE THIS IS PARTLY DIURNAL...DEBBY IS
    MOVING THROUGH A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS AND OVER 26C WATERS.
    DVORAK T NUMBERS ARE DOWN SHARPLY...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
    LOWERED TO 40 KT. THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO
    SUPPORT...AT BEST...ONLY SLOW DEVELOPMENT FOR THE NEXT DAY OR
    TWO...BUT DEBBY WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER WARMER WATERS AFTER THAT.
    ALTHOUGH DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHERLY SHEAR FROM AN
    UPPER-LEVEL LOW LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...BOTH THE SHIPS AND
    GFDL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THIS SHOULD NOT PREVENT A
    RESTRENGTHENING AND THE LONGER RANGE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
    UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

    DEBBY CONTINUES TO GAIN LATITUDE AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
    305/17. THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
    THINKING AND ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK. DEBBY CONTINUES
    TO BE STEERED BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD AROUND
    THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED
    NEAR THE AZORES. A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
    EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER
    THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUIDANCE IS
    UNANIMOUS ON A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH AHEAD OF THE CENTRAL
    ATLANTIC TROUGH...WITH DIFFERENCES ONLY IN THE RATE OF RECURVATURE.
    THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE GUNA
    CONSENSUS.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 23/2100Z 17.9N 33.0W 40 KT
    12HR VT 24/0600Z 19.0N 35.4W 40 KT
    24HR VT 24/1800Z 20.3N 38.3W 45 KT
    36HR VT 25/0600Z 21.5N 41.2W 50 KT
    48HR VT 25/1800Z 22.8N 44.0W 55 KT
    72HR VT 26/1800Z 25.5N 48.5W 60 KT
    96HR VT 27/1800Z 28.5N 51.5W 65 KT
    120HR VT 28/1800Z 32.0N 52.0W 65 KT

    $$
    FORECASTER FRANKLIN




    Pelos modelos diria que a meia da próxima semana poderá andar não muito longe dos açores!a ver a evolução:hehe:
     
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  11. Minho

    Minho
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    6 Set 2005
    Mensagens:
    4,091
    Local:
    Melgaço
    Re: Epoca Furações 2006 (Atl. Norte)

    Statement as of 5:00 am AST on August 24, 2006

    ...Debby expected to remain out to sea...


    at 500 am AST...0900z...the center of Tropical Storm Debby was
    located near latitude 19.6 north...longitude 36.3 west or about 845
    miles...1360 km...west-northwest of the Cape Verde Islands.


    Debby is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph...32 km/hr...
    and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or
    so.


    Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph...75 km/hr...with higher
    gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours.


    Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 50 miles...85 km
    from the center.


    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb...29.62 inches.


    Repeating the 500 am AST position...19.6 N...36.3 W. Movement
    toward...west-northwest near 20 mph. Maximum sustained winds...45
    mph. Minimum central pressure...1003 mb.


    The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
    1100 am AST.


    $$
    Forecaster Blake/Avila
     
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  12. miguel

    miguel
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    4 Fev 2006
    Mensagens:
    13,487
    Local:
    Setúbal
    Re: Epoca Furações 2006 (Atl. Norte)

    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 240830
    TCDAT4
    TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
    NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042006
    500 AM EDT THU AUG 24 2006

    CONVECTION HAS BEEN PULSING IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTION OF
    THE STORM WITH A SYMMETRIC OUTFLOW PATTERN FORMING. THE INITIAL
    INTENSITY WILL BE CONSERVATIVELY KEPT AT 40 KT IN BETWEEN
    SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35-45 KT. A GRADUAL
    STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY DUE TO SLOWLY INCREASING SSTS AND
    FAIRLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY SHEAR IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREAFTER...
    SSTS RISE A BIT FASTER BUT GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOUTHERLY
    SHEAR WILL INCREASE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE DIVERGES BEYOND TWO
    DAYS... AS SHIPS NEVER MAKES DEBBY A HURRICANE WHILE THE GFDL
    INTENSIFIES THE SYSTEM INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE BY DAY THREE.
    THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE MODELS AND
    SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

    THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS ABOUT THE SAME...300/17. THIS
    GENERAL TRACK IS ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM AS THE CYCLONE MOVES
    IN BETWEEN A BUILDING MIDDLE-LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
    A MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST. BEYOND 24-36
    HOURS... A BREAK IN THE TROPICAL RIDGE FORMS NEAR 55W. THIS
    BREAK SHOULD ALLOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE
    NORTHWEST THEN NORTH... THOUGH MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST TO TAKE
    DEBBY NORTHWARD. THE GFDL IS THE FASTEST MODEL.... SHOOTING THE
    STORM INTO THE MID-LATITUDES NORTH OF 40N IN ABOUT 5 DAYS. THE
    NOGAPS IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER... SHOWING A WEAKER TROUGH AND KEEPING
    DEBBY SOUTH OF 32N THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
    A LITTLE FASTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
    FOLLOWS SUIT... A BIT SOUTH OF THE GUNS CONSENSUS.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INITIAL 24/0900Z 19.6N 36.3W 40 KT
    12HR VT 24/1800Z 20.6N 38.7W 40 KT
    24HR VT 25/0600Z 21.8N 41.6W 45 KT
    36HR VT 25/1800Z 23.0N 44.5W 50 KT
    48HR VT 26/0600Z 24.5N 47.0W 55 KT
    72HR VT 27/0600Z 27.5N 50.5W 65 KT
    96HR VT 28/0600Z 30.5N 51.0W 65 KT
    120HR VT 29/0600Z 34.5N 49.5W 65 KT

    $$
    FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
     
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  13. miguel

    miguel
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    4 Fev 2006
    Mensagens:
    13,487
    Local:
    Setúbal
    Re: Epoca Furações 2006 (Atl. Norte)

    A trajectoria pode levar DEBBY não muito longe dos açores nessa altura mais fraco ou então não!!!:hehe: keep watching...:D

    [​IMG]
     
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  14. dj_alex

    dj_alex
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    Nimbostratus

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2005
    Mensagens:
    1,913
    Local:
    Lisboa
    Re: Epoca Furações 2006 (Atl. Norte)

    É capaz de seguir para Norte....Vamos lá ver:)
     
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  15. Santos

    Santos
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    Nimbostratus

    Registo:
    27 Jan 2006
    Mensagens:
    1,110
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    -------
    Re: Epoca Furações 2006 (Atl. Norte)

    Olá amigos, depois de algum tempo de ausência estou de volta.
    Deixo aqui um link para apenas reflectirmos.
    Abraço

    http://skeetobiteweather.com/
     

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