Furacão FLORENCE (Atlântico 2018 #AL06)
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Meteogramas MeteoPT: Capitais de Distrito/Açores/Madeira | Coordenadas
Seguimento Meteorológico: Litoral Norte | Interior Norte e Centro | Litoral Centro | Sul | Açores e Madeira | Livre Previsões: Curto e médio prazo: até 2 semanas | Longo prazo: mensal e sazonal (Regras e links úteis nos 1ºs posts)
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A TT Florence mantém a mesma intensidade, movimentando-se nesta altura para W com ventos máximos sustentados de 70 mph (aprox. 113 km/h) e rajadas até 86 mph (aprox. 138 km/h) e apresenta uma pressão mínima de 989 hPa. É expectável que nas próximas horas se volte a intensificar, adquirindo novamente o status de furacão.
03h00 UTC
As previsões atuais apontam para que se dirija para a costa sudeste dos EUA, afetando-a como major hurricane.
03h00 UTC
As previsões atuais apontam para que se dirija para a costa sudeste dos EUA, afetando-a como major hurricane.
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Furacão
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Jeff Masters Moderator • 19 minutes ago
A quick preview of my thoughts this morning. The big story is that Florence is likely to stall over the coast or just inland for many days, making this a huge rainfall threat. The best case scenario is the 0Z Sunday run of the UKMET model, which keeps Florence offshore. The model uncertainty has shrunk considerably since yesterday (see below.) Of the top five models we use for track forecasts, the GFS model continues to do the best job with 4 -5 day forecasts for Florence, and the Euro has been the worst.
Figure 1. The 0Z Sunday, September 9, 2018 track
forecasts (left) and 0Z Saturday, September 8, 2018 track forecast (right) by
the operational European model for Florence (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a
proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since the time of the model
run), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European
model ensemble (heavy black line), and the track forecasts from the “high
probability cluster” (grey lines)—the four European model ensemble members that
have performed best with Florence thus far. The forecasts show that the
uncertainty in the forecast has shrunk considerably, which is likely due to the
inclusion of data from last night’s dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet. All of these
forecasts predict a U.S. East Coast landfall. Image credit: CFAN.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Fearsome-Five-Florence-Helene-Isaac-Olivia-and-Mangkhut
A quick preview of my thoughts this morning. The big story is that Florence is likely to stall over the coast or just inland for many days, making this a huge rainfall threat. The best case scenario is the 0Z Sunday run of the UKMET model, which keeps Florence offshore. The model uncertainty has shrunk considerably since yesterday (see below.) Of the top five models we use for track forecasts, the GFS model continues to do the best job with 4 -5 day forecasts for Florence, and the Euro has been the worst.
Figure 1. The 0Z Sunday, September 9, 2018 track
forecasts (left) and 0Z Saturday, September 8, 2018 track forecast (right) by
the operational European model for Florence (red line, adjusted by CFAN using a
proprietary technique that accounts for storm movement since the time of the model
run), along with the track of the average of the 50 members of the European
model ensemble (heavy black line), and the track forecasts from the “high
probability cluster” (grey lines)—the four European model ensemble members that
have performed best with Florence thus far. The forecasts show that the
uncertainty in the forecast has shrunk considerably, which is likely due to the
inclusion of data from last night’s dropsonde mission by the NOAA jet. All of these
forecasts predict a U.S. East Coast landfall. Image credit: CFAN.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Fearsome-Five-Florence-Helene-Isaac-Olivia-and-Mangkhut
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Furacão
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Furacão