Furacão ISAAC (Atlântico 2018 #AL09)

[luismeteo3]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 SEP 2018 Time : 154531 UTC
Lat : 14:35:57 N Lon : 49:52:43 W

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 978.9mb/ 77.0kt

 

[Afgdr]

O Isaac é uma tempestade tropical forte com ventos máximos sustentados de 70 mph (cerca de 113 km/h) e rajadas até 86 mph (cerca de 138 km/h). Desloca-se para W com uma pressão mínima de 996 hPa.


22h15 UTC

Previsão NHC - trajetória + cone de incerteza

Prevê-se que avance em direção às Pequenas Antilhas, onde foram ativados avisos de furacão/tempestade tropical.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Martinique
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Antigua
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis

Efeitos expectáveis

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Isaac is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations
of 3 to 5 inches with isolated amounts near 10 inches across
Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe, with 1 to 2 inches
anticipated across the remaining Windward and Leeward Islands.

STORM SURGE: A storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels
is possible near and to the north of where the center moves through
the Lesser Antilles. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by Thursday morning, with tropical storm conditions possible
overnight Wednesday in both the hurricane and tropical storm watch
areas.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac will begin to affect portions
of the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday afternoon. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

 

[Afgdr]

Com toda a atividade tropical existente no Atlântico e com todas as atenções focadas no F Florence e na TS Helene, o Isaac ficou esquecido

O Isaac é neste momento uma tempestade tropical com ventos máximos sustentados de 45 mph (≈ 72 km/h) e rajadas até 58 mph (≈ 93 km/h). A pressão mínima é de 1006 hPa.

Desloca-se para W a 18 mph (30 km/h), devendo enfraquecer nos próximos dias e dissipar-se no dia 18.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 14.9N 61.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 14.9N 64.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 14.9N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 14.9N 69.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 15.0N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 15.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 17.0N 80.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED



19h45 UTC

Key Messages:

1. Isaac is expected to produce tropical-storm-force winds across
portions of the Lesser Antilles into this afternoon, and tropical
storm warnings are in effect for Martinique, Dominica, and
Guadeloupe.

2. Tropical storm watches are in effect for Montserrat, St. Kitts
and Nevis, Antigua, Barbuda, Saba and St. Eustatius, St. Maarten,
and St. Martin. Tropical storm conditions are possible on these
islands today and interests on those islands should follow any
advice given by their local officials.

(NHC)

 

[Afgdr]

Aviso das 21h00 UTC (17h00 AST)

A TT Isaac enfraqueceu ligeiramente em relação ao aviso anterior.

Movimento: W a 16 mph (26 km/h)
Ventos máximos sustentados: 40 mph (≈ 64 km/h)
Rajadas: 52 mph (≈ 84 km/h)
Pressão mínima: 1006 hPa


22h00 UTC

Todos os avisos relativos ao Isaac foram descontinuados, no entanto é esperada precipitação forte em alguns locais das Caraíbas.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All watches and warnings have been discontinued for Isaac.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

None.

Efeitos em terra

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Isaac is expected to produce total
rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts up to
8 to 10 inches over Dominica. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
with isolated amounts up to 6 inches over elevated terrain are
forecast across Martinique and Guadeloupe. Rainfall totals of 2 to
4 inches are forecast across southeastern Puerto Rico, while totals
of 1 to 2 inches with maximum amounts of 3 inches are possible
across the remainder of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
This rainfall may cause dangerous flash flooding.

SURF: Swells generated by Isaac are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.

Previsão de rota e cone de incerteza

 

[luismeteo3]

...ISAAC WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...BANDS OF RAIN LINGERING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES...

5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 14

Location: 15.0°N 65.5°W

Moving: W at 15 mph

Min pressure: 1006 mb

Max sustained: 35 mph

 

[Orion]

Do novo aviso. O negrito é épico

The intensity forecast hasn't gotten any easier with Isaac. Vertical shear is expected to decrease a bit more, which might diminish the effects of dry air seen on water vapor images around the cyclone. However, the GFS and ECMWF continue to insist that Isaac will degenerate into a wave within the next 2 or 3 days, which is almost unanimously supported by their respective ensemble members. This is the solution that the official forecast follows. It should be noted that none of the global models show pressures this low now with Isaac, except the UKMET, and that model is the one that holds onto the circulation the longest. The reality of the situation is that the long-term future of Isaac is cloudy, and the best advice is just to follow NHC advisories every 6 hours to see if we gain any confidence.

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[luismeteo3]

NHC: "..NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATES ISAAC HAS DISSIPATED... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY..."
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE....

 

[Afgdr]

O Isaac dissipou-se hoje.


Remanescentes do Isaac às 13h15 UTC

Último aviso do NHC