Furacão MILTON (Atlântico 2024 #AL14)

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Caçador de tempestades Reed Timmer em direto:


A minha mulher tem uma prima que vive na zona de Fort Myers e um primo mais a Sul na zona de Naples.

Felizmente tem vindo a perder força, esperemos que o pior não se confirme. :unsure:
 
Última edição:
Felizmente tem vindo a perder força, esperemos que o pior não se confirme.
Está mesmo a perder força:

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
600 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...600 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Heavy rainfall continues over the central Florida peninsula with
hurricane-force wind gusts beginning to occur along the Florida gulf
coast.

A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 66 mph (106 km/h)
was recently reported at the Albert Whitted Airport in
St. Petersburg.

The next update will be at 700 PM EDT (2300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 83.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 150 MI...250 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Mahoney/Camposano
 
Está mesmo a perder força:

Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
600 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
...600 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

Heavy rainfall continues over the central Florida peninsula with
hurricane-force wind gusts beginning to occur along the Florida gulf
coast.

A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A
sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust of 66 mph (106 km/h)
was recently reported at the Albert Whitted Airport in
St. Petersburg.

The next update will be at 700 PM EDT (2300 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 83.3W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 150 MI...250 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Mahoney/Camposano
Intrusão de ar seco e windshear.
 
Subiu ligeiramente a pressão, manteve os ventos máximos.
Quase landfall.

"Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
700 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF MILTON STARTING TO SPREAD ONSHORE ALONG
THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...700 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

The northern eyewall of Hurricane Milton is beginning to move
onshore of the Florida gulf coast near Tampa and St. Petersburg
where an Extreme Wind Warning is now in effect. Please shelter in
place as these extremely dangerous hurricane-force winds overspread
the region.

A sustained wind of 61 mph (98 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont Channel. A
sustained wind of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h)
was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International
Airport. A sustained wind of 55 mph (89 km/h) and a gust of 71 mph
(114 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Skyway
Fishing Pier.

The next update will be the intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT
(0000 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 700 PM EDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 35 MI...50 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Papin/Mahoney/Camposano "


As evacuações de população devem ter sido programadas para sul, esperemos.

 
Última edição:
Pode ser que este enfraquecimento seja capaz de minimizar o número de vítimas.
Sinceramente, 200 Km/h é quase o mesmo em risco para vidas que 270 Km/h, com a agravante de que a precipitação aumenta.

Ver anexo 14965

Deve ser catastrófico o que se passa neste momento em Tampa. Com o movimento relativamente rápido de Milton para ENE, o quadrante norte da parede do olho vai manter-se lento sobre Tampa, e acontece o que se está a observar no radar: os ecos mais fortes permanecem nessa área.

212329WPCERO_sm.gif
 

Anexos

  • 212329_current_wind_sm.webp
    212329_current_wind_sm.webp
    49.2 KB · Visto: 22
Última edição:
Algumas estações no WU já registam 140 km/h, acima de 100 de média. Ainda estão online.

 
A parede norte do olho continua a ser a principal área de precipitação intensa, mesmo agora depois de landfall.


Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY IN EFFECT FOR THE TAMPA BAY AREA AS
MILTON CONTINUES MOVING INLAND...
...1000 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 69 mph (111 km/h) and a gust of 102 mph (165
km/h
) was recently reported at the Sarasota-Bradenton International
Airport
. A sustained wind of 86 mph (139 km/h) and a gust of 105 mph
(169 km/h) was recently reported at a WeatherFlow station at Egmont
Channel.
A sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) and a gust of 98 mph
(157 km/h) was recently reported at a NOS station at Middle Tampa
Bay
. A gust of 91 mph (146 km/h) was recently reported at a Citizen
Weather Observer Program station in Bartow.

A Flash Flood Emergency is in effect for the Tampa Bay area,
including the cities of Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Clearwater.
Albert Whitted Airport in St. Petersburg has received 16.61 inches
of rain so far today.


The next update will be the full advisory at 1100 PM EDT (0300
UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 82.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM NE OF SARASOTA FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney

417 mm no aeroporto em St.Petersburg, como indicado acima.
 
Última edição:
"Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1200 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND...

...1200 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 93 mph (150 km/h)
was recently reported at the Tampa International Airport and at a
Citizen Weather Observer Program station in Dundee. A sustained wind
of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 64 mph (104 km/h) was recently
reported at Orlando Executive Airport. A sustained wind of 44 mph
(69 km/h) and a gust of 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at
a WeatherFlow station near Melbourne.

The next position update will be at 100 AM EDT (0500 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM EDT...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 81.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Mahoney"

000
WTNT44 KNHC 100249
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

Earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations, WSR-88D radar
imagery and velocities, and surface synoptic data indicate that
Milton made landfall along the Florida Gulf coast just south of
Tampa around 0030 UTC. The center is now moving over central
Florida. While aircraft and Doppler velocity data indicated
a landfall intensity of near 105 kt, assuming some inland decrease
in intensity, the maximum winds are now estimated to be around 90
kt. There have been a number of surface reports of inland winds
at damaging velocities. There have also been several reports of
extreme rainfall rates, including one measurement of 5.09 inches in
an hour at St. Petersburg.

Center fixes indicate that the motion is east-northeastward, or
060/14 kt. Milton is now embedded within a belt of subtropical
mid-tropospheric westerlies, and it should move across the Florida
peninsula overnight. Afterward, the cyclone is likely to turn
generally eastward during the ensuing few days while moving over the
southwestern Atlantic waters and losing tropical characteristics.
The official track forecast is similar to the dynamical model
consensus early in the period and follows a blend of the GFS and
ECMWF solutions in 2-4 days.

The intensity guidance and the relatively fast forward speed of
Milton indicate that the system will maintain hurricane intensity
while crossing Florida. Milton is already interacting with a
frontal zone and the global models show the system becoming embedded
within the front in 24-36 hours. This guidance also suggests that
Milton will not have sufficient baroclinic forcing to maintain its
strength and will gradually spin down over the Atlantic,
dissipating after 96 hours.


Key Messages:

1. A large area of life-threatening storm surge is occurring along
portions of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula and
southwest Florida. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied
by damaging waves. Water levels will remain elevated into Thursday
morning.

2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially
in gusts, will spread inland across portions of the central Florida
Peninsula to the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning
area overnight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to
take shelter in an interior room and away from windows.

3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday
continues to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening
flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river
flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding
combine to increase the overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 27.6N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/1200Z 28.7N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 11/0000Z 29.2N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 29.3N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0000Z 29.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0000Z 29.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0000Z 31.6N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

128 mm em 1 hora em St.Petersburg !!

Milton está enorme, ocupando a maior parte da Florida:

Milton-track_adv19A.webp
Milton-track_adv20_zoom.webp
031926_wind_history.webp
 
Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND DAMAGING WINDS REACHING THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...
...100 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...

A sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and a gust of 79 mph (127 km/h)
was recently reported at the Albert Whitted Airport station in St.
Petersburg. A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust of 74
mph (119 km/h) was recently reported at Orlando International
Airport. A sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust of 67 mph
(108 km/h) was recently reported at a NASA weather station at Cape
Canaveral.

The next position update will be at 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC) with the
intermediate advisory.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM EDT...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 81.6W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SSW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Sardi/Mahoney/Cangialosi"