Furacão TOMAS (Atlântico 2010 #AL21)

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Da evolução do invest #91 surge a 21ª depressão tropical da temporada de 2010, a 19ª a ser "baptizada" com o nome Tomas.

É um grande ciclone que se forma relativamente próximo das Pequenas Antilhas, que irá atingir nas próximas horas.

Tenho estado a acompanhar este sistema como leigo, a "olho nú" ;) pelo site do NHC, é impressionantea velocidade a que este sistema parece estar a evoluír e impressionante também o seu tamanho. O NHC ainda não fez saír a previsão oficial da evolução da intensidade e trajecto deste ciclone.

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...THE NINETEENTH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS SOUTHEAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 57.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS...AND ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WARNING FOR
MARTINIQUE.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO...AND GRENADA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
DOMINICA.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...ST. LUCIA...ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES...GRENADA...AND TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM TOMAS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.5 WEST. TOMAS IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PASS
THROUGH THE CENTRAL WINDWARD ISLANDS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND
TOMAS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...TOMAS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED COASTAL FLOODING
WITHIN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW. THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND POTENTIALLY DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

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IMPRESSIONANTE

A área onde a circulação denota a influência deste sistema tem um diâmetro de pelo menos 1200 milhas náuticas...

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Projecções do NHC para a evolução deste sistema:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 29/2100Z 11.1N 57.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 30/0600Z 12.0N 59.5W 40 KT
24HR VT 30/1800Z 12.9N 61.8W 50 KT
36HR VT 31/0600Z 13.5N 64.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 31/1800Z 14.1N 66.2W 70 KT
72HR VT 01/1800Z 14.8N 70.4W 90 KT
96HR VT 02/1800Z 15.2N 74.0W 100 KT
120HR VT 03/1800Z 16.0N 76.0W 100 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 

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Nos últimos dois dias o Tomas tem sido afectado por wind shear que "despiu" completamente o centro da circulação levando a um enfraquecimento drástico do sistema, que decresceu de um furacão cat.2 para uma tempestade tropical de 40 nós... No entanto, nota-se nas últimas horas um reaparecimento de convecção próximo do centro que pode significar que a fase de refortalecimento, que sempre esteve nas previsões, pode estar a começar efectivamente mais cedo do que o NHC prevê no seu último boletim, que ainda admitia um período de enfraquecimento e só a partir de 24 horas uma recuperação, possibilitada pela diminuição do shear e pelas condições atmosféricas e da água do mar que, de resto, são favoráveis.

O Tomas há cerca de 5 horas atrás...
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... e há cerca de uma hora atrás:
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Esperemos pelo próximo boletim, lá para as 21h (UTC)... Para já vigora a seguinte previsão:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 01/1500Z 13.6N 68.7W 40 KT
12HR VT 02/0000Z 13.7N 70.3W 35 KT
24HR VT 02/1200Z 13.8N 72.1W 35 KT
36HR VT 03/0000Z 14.0N 73.3W 40 KT
48HR VT 03/1200Z 14.3N 74.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 04/1200Z 15.2N 74.8W 55 KT
96HR VT 05/1200Z 17.5N 74.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 06/1200Z 21.5N 71.5W 65 KT

O NHC refere que a reintensificação é sustentada em todos os modelos.
 

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Furacão TOMAS ameaça Haiti

Tomas threatens Haiti

UNITED NATIONS - THE United Nations ordered emergency food and shelter on Monday to parts of Haiti threatened by Tropical Storm Tomas as aid agencies struggled with earthquake recovery and a cholera epidemic.

Up to 500,000 people could be affected by Tomas, which is expected to strike the already battered nation as a hurricane late on Friday, UN agencies said.

The agencies have rushed supplies to camps across Haiti, in some cases sending enough fuel for seven days in anticipation that roads will be cut by the hurricane, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) said in a statement.

Aid agencies are 'stretched to the limit,' said UN Humanitarian Coordinator in Haiti Nigel Fisher.

The United Nations said it needs 150,000 tarpaulins, 90,000 cases of soap, 90,000 hygiene kits, 200,000 sachets of oral rehydration salts to treat cholera and 200 tents for emergency cholera treatment centers. Stocks in Haiti have already been depleted by a storm that hit on Sept 24.

Tomas 'could not have come at a more difficult time,' said Mr Fisher. -- AFP
(fonte:http://www.straitstimes.com/BreakingNews/World/Story/STIStory_597993.html

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000
WTNT41 KNHC 021452
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM TOMAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL212010
1100 AM EDT TUE NOV 02 2010

TOMAS HAS CERTAINLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE YESTERDAY...WITH A
LARGE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION AND INCREASED BANDING SEEN IN
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA.

(...)

THE NEXT AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE TOMAS THIS AFTERNOON.

WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO RELAX AND THE MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
APPEARS TO BE MOISTENING. THESE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS...COMBINED
WITH HIGH OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT...FAVOR INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH IS SHOWN BY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. IN
FACT...THE SHIPS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX GIVES A 48 PERCENT
CHANCE OF A 30-KT INCREASE IN WIND SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
.

(...)

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS...IT APPEARS
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC LATER IN THE WEEK.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 13.5N 72.6W 45 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 13.7N 73.8W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.1N 75.0W 65 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.6N 75.8W 70 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 15.2N 76.0W 80 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 17.2N 74.9W 90 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 65 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 22.5N 69.5W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BROWN
 

Vince

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Tomas degradou-se mais um pouco, dados recolhidos por um avião mostram uma circulação deficiente e alongada, sem ventos de intensidade de tempestade tropical, pelo que agora é considerado apenas depressão tropical.

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Com uma circulação muito alargada e centro difícil de localizar com exactidão, além do movimento errático, a previsão exacta do trajecto para norte e nordeste nos próximos dias é bastante incerta, mas muitos modelos continuam a prever uma reintensificação que poderá trazer problemas ao Haiti, o grande motivo de preocupação com este ciclone, e também à Rep.Dominicana. Mesmo que não se intensifique muito em termos de vento, a chuva será sempre um problema.

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AnDré

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O TOMAS intensificou-se e voltou a ser um furacão de categoria 1.
Isto à medida que se aproxima lentamente do Haiti.

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summary of 500 am EDT...0900 UTC...information
----------------------------------------------
location...18.1n 74.9w
about 145 mi...235 km S of Guantanamo Cuba
about 175 mi...280 km W of Port au Prince Haiti
maximum sustained winds...80 mph...130 km/hr
present movement...NE or 35 degrees at 9 mph...15 km/hr
minimum central pressure...984 mb...29.06 inches



Hazards affecting land
----------------------
storm surge...a dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the warning area
along the coast of Haiti...and 3 to 5 feet along the southeastern
coast of Cuba...in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast...the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.


Wind...tropical storm conditions are occurring within the Tropical
Storm Warning area and in the Hurricane Warning area in Haiti.
Hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the Hurricane
Warning today.


Rainfall...Tomas is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 5 to 10 inches over much of Haiti and the Dominican Republic...
with possible isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides over
mountainous terrain. Total rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
are possible over Jamaica. Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are
possible over eastern Cuba...the southeastern Bahamas...and the
Turks and Caicos Islands.
 

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Tomas approaches Haiti; landfall expected in Cuba
Fonte: CNN

(CNN) -- Rain associated with Tropical Storm Tomas began falling on Haiti on Thursday afternoon as aid agencies scrambled to move as many people as possible into storm shelters.

The storm -- even if it does not regain hurricane strength -- could deal a disastrous blow to a nation still struggling to its feet after a devastating January earthquake. It showed signs Thursday night of becoming better organized, the National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida, said.

"People are already dislocated," said Leonard Doyle, spokesman for the International Organization for Migration, which is moving about 2,000 people from the Corail Cesselesse tent camp into a nearby shelter: a former church.

The group is working "as fast as we can," he said Thursday morning.

"We don't have anywhere to move any of the people in the camps that we manage directly other than Corail," Deb Ingersoll of the American Refugee Committee said of the Corail Cesselesse camp. The committee serves about 100,000 people in three other camps, she said.

Although her organization is helping disseminate information and encourage people to leave, "to be honest, I'm not sure many of them will," she said. "They're very entrenched here," and many worry about losing their possessions.

"They're looking at us like we're crazy for telling them they should leave," Ingersoll said. "They don't seem to think this is an event. ... Aid workers are far more worried than they are."

She said group members are dismantling tents in the center of camp to prevent them from becoming projectiles in the wind and encouraging residents to find family or friends who still have homes to stay with. Videos of relocations on the International Organization for Migration's website show pickups piled precariously with mattresses and people.

The forecast provided a bit of good news Thursday, saying Tomas is no longer expected to re-intensify into a hurricane before it passes by Haiti and Cuba through the 50-mile-wide Windward Passage. Although Tomas is expected to become a hurricane again, that is not forecast until it is a bit north of Cuba and Haiti.

In addition, the track has shifted westward, meaning a landfall is now anticipated on the eastern tip of Cuba. There is still a risk of a Haiti landfall, however, as the nation is within the cone of uncertainty.

However, despite its classification, Tomas is forecast to dump 5 to 10 inches of rain on Haiti, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches in some areas -- amounts that could trigger flooding and landslides. In addition, a storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels in the warning area in areas of onshore winds, accompanied by "large and destructive waves," said the National Hurricane Center. As of 8 p.m. Thursday, Tomas' winds were at 60 mph (95 kph).

"The next 36 hours are the primary threat to the area," said National Hurricane Center Director Bill Read.

The main threat is the heavy rain, he said, which will be strongest Thursday night and Friday morning.

"Any amount of rain is dangerous here," Ingersoll said, noting that many residents are housed in tents that have experienced sun, rain and wind for 11 months and are "not very well secured."

Rain bands associated with Tomas were moving across Haiti and Jamaica on Thursday afternoon, the Hurricane Center said.

The government has been advising Haitians to seek sturdy shelter since Wednesday, Doyle said. Humanitarian organizations are doing what they can. But with an estimated 1.3 million Haitians left homeless by the January 12 earthquake, the task before them is enormous.

"For most [internally displaced persons] and those living in communities vulnerable to flooding, there are few good options," the International Organization for Migration says on its website. Winds associated with Tomas, if it re-intensifies into a hurricane, could reach 100 mph, and "these could be accompanied by bands of torrential rain certain to shred the already-fragile IDP shelters. There are many camps at risk from landslides and flash flooding if the storm strikes."

In a video posted on the organization's website, staffer Renald Dezarin said he stayed in one of the tents previously, and it was a "frightening situation" when the wind blew or rain fell.

Even before the 7.0-magnitude earthquake, Haiti was the poorest country in the Americas, with about 80 percent of its residents living in poverty, according to the CIA World Factbook. As it grappled with rebuilding, a cholera outbreak occurred, with a current death toll of nearly 450 people.

"Even if Tomas only brushes Haiti, it may exacerbate the epidemic, facilitating the spread of the disease into and throughout metropolitan Port-au-Prince, where a third of the population remains homeless and in camps," the International Organization for Migration said.

But many structures that would usually be used for storm shelters -- schools and hospitals -- are no longer standing. And many of Haiti's homeless have no options. "Clearly, there's not enough [structures]," Ingersoll said.

"If I had friends or family with homes, I would have been there on the 13th of January," the day after the earthquake, Franklin Mezulus, 53, told Time magazine. Mezulus lives in a camp on a hillside outside of Port-au-Prince with eight children under his care, according to Time. "If a storm hits, I'll have nowhere to go."

A hurricane warning was issued for Haiti late Wednesday. Another hurricane warning was issued early Thursday for the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. The government of Cuba issued a warning for the province of Guantanamo on Thursday as well. The warning means hurricane conditions are expected in 24 to 36 hours, according to the Hurricane Center.

As of 8 p.m. Thursday, the center of Tomas was about 90 miles (150 kilometers) southeast of Kingston, Jamaica, and about 265 miles (425 kilometers) west-southwest of Port-au-Prince, Haiti. It was moving north-northeast at 8 mph (13 kph).

Tomas was once was a Category 2 hurricane and then weakened to a tropical depression before re-intensifying.

Forecast maps show Tomas crossing the eastern tip of Cuba early Friday as a tropical storm. "On the forecast track, the center will pass near Jamaica or Haiti tonight, near or over extreme eastern Cuba Friday and near or over the southeastern Bahamas late Friday and Friday night," the Hurricane Center said. It was expected to turn northeast and accelerate over the next two days.

Tropical storm conditions were expected to reach the coast within the warning area later Thursday. Tropical storm-force winds extend outward up to 120 miles (195 kilometers) from Tomas' center.

In August, the Clinton Foundation committed $1 million to build 14 emergency shelters in Haiti, and six are complete, each able to house 80 people, Time said. The Red Cross has positioned supplies in Port-au-Prince and southwestern coastal cities ahead of Tomas, the magazine said. The U.S. Southern Command said Wednesday that the USS Iwo Jima has been deployed to Haiti to provide humanitarian support.

But "we're basically maxed out," Oxfam spokeswoman Julie Schindall told Time. "We're mounting two emergency responses, and we can't handle a third."

Haiti's president and prime minister held an emergency Cabinet meeting to discuss evacuations of coastal communities, the United Nations said Wednesday.

Doyle pointed out that Haitians are "incredibly resourceful," even if they don't have much to work with. A strong people with robust family ties, Haitians have experienced hurricanes before, he said.

Elsewhere, a tropical storm warning was issued for Jamaica, and the southern coast of the Dominican Republic -- from the Haitian border eastward to Barahona -- was under a tropical storm watch, as were the Cuban provinces of Santiago de Cuba and Holguin as Tomas neared.

The storm is expected to pass just to the east of Jamaica, but is predicted to produce only 1 to 3 inches of rain there. Three to 5 inches is predicted over the southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, the Hurricane Center said.

Tomas hit the West Indies island of St. Lucia as a Category 1 hurricane on Sunday morning and caused major damage by the time its winds subsided Monday night. At least 12 people died in the storm, according to St. Lucian Prime Minister Stephenson King.

Rebuilding has begun on the island, including the rehabilitation of two bridges that collapsed in the storm, St. Lucia's government said in a posting on its website this week. King has asked France to assist the island "in the aftermath of what is already being described as the worst-ever natural disaster in St. Lucian history," the government said.

The Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility has said it will make payments to St. Lucia, Barbados, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines for damage sustained in Tomas. Preliminary calculations show a payout of $3.2 million for St. Lucia, but the government estimated that the damage caused by the storm could surpass $100 million.

St. Lucia said it will be ready to "welcome all visitors in its usual legendary fashion" by November 12. Cruise ship calls to the island, which had been suspended in Tomas' wake, will resume Friday.

The popular tourist area of Soufriere was "devastated" by the storm, King said in the statement. "It's not just a question of clearing these roads; sections of the network have completely disappeared. We are just going to have to find another way in and out of the town."

Um outro artigo mais sensacionalista no Daily Mail tinha imagens dos campos em que vivem milhares de Haitianos desde o terramoto no início deste ano, como esta:

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