Estofex para hoje:
A level 1 was issued for northern Tunisia, northern Algeria, southern Italy, south-western Turkey, parts of the Pyrenees, and north-western Spain and northern Portugal mainly for large hail and to a lesser extent excessive precipitation and severe wind gusts.
High-over-low blocking affects Europe with a relatively weak mid-level trough over northern Tunisia / Algeria. Upstream, a sharp amplified trough cuts off west of the Iberian Peninsula. Across eastern Europe, a polar trough amplifies rapidly and spreads into the Black Sea region at the end of the period.
Pyrenees and north-western Spain and northern Portugal
A few isolated storms are not ruled out over the Pyrenees, north-western Spain, and northern Portugal today. Low-level moisture is modest at the south-western flank of the European high and ahead of a frontal boundary approaching over the Atlantic. This moisture will overlap with diurnally driven steep lapse rates. Storms will especially form over lower mountains with strong diurnal heating and associated mountain-valley circulations as well as along sea-breeze convergence lines that move inland. Although coverage of storms is limited given marginal QG lift indicated by slowly decreasing mid-level heights. However, vertical wind shear in the range of 15 m/s will support storm organization. Multicells are not rules out, with a weak risk of large hail. Storms over western Iberia may spread off-shore and go on in the evening and night due to low-level warm air advection above the stable maritime boundary layer.