Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Atlântico 2011)

[AnDré]

Nova perturbação no Atlântico norte.
Desta vez a este das Bermudas.

1. SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING INDICATE THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE AREA ABOUT 440 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE IT REACHES COOLER
WATERS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AT AROUND 20 MPH.

 

[MSantos]

...TROPICAL STORM CINDY FORMS IN THE OPEN CENTRAL ATLANTIC...

Vou criar um tópico dedicado a este sistema

 

[MSantos]

...TROPICAL STORM DON FORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...

Formou-se hoje no Golfo do México a Tempestade Tropical DON... NHC

Criei um Tópico dedicado a este sistema Tempestade Tropical DON (Atlântico 2011 #AL04)

 

[adiabático]

Parece estar a desenvolver-se no Atlântico um candidato a primeiro sistema "Cabo Verde" da época.

 

[adiabático]

A Don atingiu a costa e dissipa-se rapidamente, como esperado; entretanto, o Atlântico parece estar a ganhar actividade, com a evolução da onda tropical que já é acompanhada como Invest 91L e trovoadas, ainda desorganizadas, no mar das Caraíbas. De África parece estar a saír mais qualquer coisa, vamos ver no que dá... No ano passado, em Agosto/Setembro houve aquela cadeia quase ininterrupta de ondas tropicais que davam tempestades, quase sem falha, a começar no furacão Danielle. Acho que foram seis...

 

[Vince]

Essa perturbação a vermelho que é o 91L poderá ser o primeiro sistema com impacto no leste das Caraíbas esta temporada.
A pressão tem vindo a cair, a circulação existe embora ainda bastante longada, tem razoável/bom suporte nos modelos e aos poucos está a estruturar-se com mais convecção e a soltar-se da ZCIT.

As condições parecem boas e com muita água pela frente para se desenvolver e intensificar. Apenas a atmosfera parece algo seca pela frente.

Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential

 

[Vince]

Desde há muitos anos que tenho um enorme fascínio por ciclones tropicais, e é por causa de imagens como esta que ponho em baixo, em que tudo se começa a encaixar perfeitamente como se fosse uma criatura viva a nascer. Ficaria muito admirado se nos próximos dias não saísse daqui um ciclone tropical significativo, a forma decidida como se soltou da ZCIT, ausencia de windshear ou até mesmo presença de anticiclone em altura, a forma como está a criar uma circulação bem definida até aqui alongada e antes disso anárquica, esta perturbação é daquelas que parece ter a palavra "Furacão" no DNA. Penso que teremos a "Emily" em breve, a dúvida será qual a intensidade a que chegará.

 

[adiabático]

Parece cada vez mais certo que a Emily já se agita no Atlântico... Entretanto, o que pensar da perturbação que está a saír da costa da Guiné? Quanto à perturbação nas Caraíbas, parece até ter uma circulação bem definida... Quem sabe... Se juntarmos a isto um possível Eugene no pacífico oriental... Era um belo full house!

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLC
ANALYZED FROM 20N55W TO A 1008 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE SOUTHERN
EXTENT OF THE WAVE NEAR 13N50W. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TPW PRODUCT. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
IS WELL OBSERVED IN THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THE CIRCULATION HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE
PAST 6-12 HOURS. THUS...THIS SYSTEM IS CLOSE TO BECOMING A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH A THREAT TO THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
PUERTO RICO. TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY
BE REQUIRED FOR PARTS OF THESE GROUP OF ISLANDS. INTERESTS IN
THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES WNW AT 15 TO 20 KT. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
8N-16N BETWEEN 44W-57W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLC IS ANALYZED FROM 24N36W TO 11N35W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SURGE DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER PRODUCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES AN
UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE. NO
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...ANALYZED FROM 23N87W TO 12N85W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT
COVERS MOST OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. BROAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD CYCLONIC
CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE DATA. SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE AFFECTING THE W AND NW CARIBBEAN WATERS W
OF 80W...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION NOTICED WITHIN 70-130 NM
OFF THE COAST OF NORTHERN NICARAGUA AND EASTERN HONDURAS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO ENTER
THE EAST ATLC WATERS OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE IS ALREADY OVER THE EAST TROPICAL ATLC
DISCUSSED BELOW.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS GUINEA-BISSAU IN WEST AFRICA
ENTERING THE ATLC ALONG 12N16W TO 9N19W TO 11N26W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT ALONG 12N33W 8N40W TO 12N49W...THEN
RESUMES S OF THE SPECIAL FEATURE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N51W TO
THE COAST OF GUYANA IN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 38W-50W. THIS AREA OF
CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE TROPICAL
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N E
OF 22W ASSOCIATED TO THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE THAT WILL BE
ENTERING THE EAST ATLC OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

Fonte: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

 

[MSantos]

Já andava a ameaçar à uns dias agora foi de vez, formou-se a 5ª tempestade da Época no Atlântico (EMILY), várias Ilhas das Caraíbas encontram-se já sob alerta ou aviso de tempestade.

Criei um tópico dedicado a Este sistema: EMILY

Deixo aqui o aviso mais recente emitido pelo NHC de Miami:

US Watch/Warning UPDATE

000
WTNT35 KNHC 012352
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
730 PM AST MON AUG 01 2011

CORRECTED FOR DETAILS IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS SECTION

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS
ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 62.0W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM WSW OF DOMINICA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
DOMINICA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND
ANTIGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
* HAITI
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED STATES
...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 730 PM AST...2330 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AND A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
EMILY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT...AND
APPROACH THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OR IMMINENT IN THE
WARNING AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED IN PUERTO RICO BY TUESDAY AND IN THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC BY TUESDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE WATCH AREA IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT...IN THE U.S.
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...AND IN HAITI BY
WEDNESDAY.

RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 2 TO 4 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND LEEWARD
ISLANDS. TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN
PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 2 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

[]ToRnAdO[]

Bem não sei se o topico é o mais indicado...

Vejam esta brutalidade, que deverá ser umas das maiores ondas tropicais que surgira!!(possivelmente)

Visivel neste momento tambem no sat24 - Africa Central!!

 

[adiabático]

Depois da montanha que pariu um rato (tempestade Emily) o Atlântico volta a dar sinais de actividade.

 

[adiabático]

 

[Vince]

Visão geral do Atlântico, com a depressão tropical nº8 e duas perturbações sob vigilância

97L

98L

 

[adiabático]

Ah, Vince... Ah, Vince, este ano temos Vince! Com o nono ciclone tropical, Irene, já vamos quase a meio da lista e ainda estamos a entrar na fase mais activa da temporada!

 

[MSantos]

Ah, Vince... Ah, Vince, este ano temos Vince! Com o nono ciclone tropical, Irene, já vamos quase a meio da lista e ainda estamos a entrar na fase mais activa da temporada!

Quem sabe se este ano algum destes "Bichos" se aproxima das nossas frias águas, para já temos o IRENE a atingir as Bahamas esperemos que não cause estragos de maior