Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Atlântico 2015)

Orion

Furacão
Registo
5 Jul 2011
Mensagens
19,740
Local
Açores
Época 2015
A época de ciclones tropicais no Atlântico começa oficialmente no dia 1 de Junho e prolonga-se até 30 de Novembro.

Nomes

Ana
Bill
Claudette
Danny
Erika
Fred
Grace
Henri
Ida
Joaquin
Kate
Larry
Mindy
Nicholas
Odette
Peter
Rose
Sam
Teresa
Victor
Wanda

Links úteis


Entidade responsável pelos avisos no Atlântico:
NHC (avisos oficiais em inglês e espanhol)

Imagens de satélite
NRL Monterey - Tropical
NOAA Atlantic and Caribbean Tropical Satellite Imagery
Tropical RAMDIS RealTime
Tropical RAMDIS
CIMSS Tropical Cyclones
EUMETSAT Airmass
NASA Interactive Global Geostationary Weather Satellite Images

Modelos
NOAA NCEP Model Analyses and Forecasts
Experimental forecast Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Fields
Tropical Cyclone Model Guidance
NOAA ESRL Tropical Cyclone Tracks from Ensemble Models
ECMWF Tropical
ECMWF
SFWMD Hurricane Models Plots
FSU Phase Diagrams
PSU E-Wall Tropical
SFWMD Model Plots


Outros Dados
Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Product
SSMI/AMSRE-derived Total Precipitable Water - North Atlantic
Current Observations Across the Caribbean
GOES-East Wind Shear Analysis
Surface Wind Analysis
WAVETRAK - Tropical Wave Tracking
QuikSCAT Storm Page
ASCAT Storm Page
Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential
Reynolds SST Anomaly
Operational SST Anomaly Charts
Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity
NOAA Dvorak
National Data Buoy Center
NHC Aircraft Reconnaissance
NHC TAFB Forecasts and Analyses
Saharan Air Layer Analysis

Radares
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Serviços nacionais ou regionais de Meteorologia
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Ferramentas
Pressure and Wind Conversion Tool
Experimental Reconnaissance Decoder
Layer Google Earth Reconnaissance


Climatologia


Época
A época de ciclones tropicais no Atlântico começa oficialmente no dia 1 de Junho e prolonga-se até 30 de Novembro. Isto são datas oficiais, por vezes há anos com uma ou outra excepção.

Origem e trajectos

tracks.gif



Pico

O pico da época é o dia 10 de Setembro.

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Nº de ciclones ao longo dos meses

clima.gif


numero.gif



Origem e trajectos por meses
Ao longo dos vários meses, nem todo o Atlântico está activo da mesma forma.

Junho

06.gif



Julho

07.gif



Agosto

08-1.gif



Setembro

09-3.gif



Outubro

10-1.gif



Novembro

11-1.gif
 

Orion

Furacão
Registo
5 Jul 2011
Mensagens
19,740
Local
Açores
The 2015 Atlantic hurricane season may be one of the least active in decades, according to an initial forecast issued Thursday by Colorado State University.

The early outlook released April 9 calls for seven named storms, including three hurricanes, one of which is predicted to attain major hurricane status (Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale).

This is well below the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

The outlook, headed by Dr. Phil Klotzbach in consultation with long-time hurricane expert Dr. William Gray, is based on a combination of 29 years of statistical predictors, combined with analog seasons exhibiting similar features of sea-level pressure and sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans.

http://www.weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-season-outlook-atlantic-2015-el-nino

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Tem algumas semelhanças com 1997. Não só houve uma 'Érika' como o total das tempestades cifrou-se em 8. Houve 3 furacões e 1 deles atingiu cat. 3 ou mais:

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Não é de excluir uma temporada semelhante. A anomalia das águas assim o indica:

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Poucas (ou mesmo nenhuma) tempestade proveniente de África. Elas desenvolver-se-iam no Golfo do México ou nas imediações.
 
Última edição:

Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
Mensagens
3,766
Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
Todos os modelos (GFS, CMC, ECMWF, UKMET, NAVGEM) agora mostram a possibilidade de formação de um ciclone, provavelmente subtropical na costa do sudeste dos EUA.
Os modelos também estão atrasando um pouco a formação desse ciclone, antes era previsto para se formar na quarta, agora já mostram entre quinta e sexta.
Os modelos europeu e canadense, mostram a possibilidade do ciclone ameaçar as Carolinas.
 

Afgdr

Nimbostratus
Registo
28 Set 2011
Mensagens
1,880
Local
Lagoa - São Miguel, Açores
A previsão do NHC aponta para 30% de probabilidade de formação de um ciclone tropical nos próximos 5 dias.

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to form north of
the Bahamas later this week. This system could gradually acquire
some subtropical characteristics by Thursday or Friday as it moves
slowly northward. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook will be
issued on this system by 11 AM EDT Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

Forecaster Brennan
 
  • Gosto
Reactions: Tstorm e Wessel1985

Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
Mensagens
3,766
Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
Modelos mantém a formação de um ciclone na costa do sudeste dos EUA dentro das próximas 72 horas.
O sistema pode ganhar o status de INVEST 90L ainda hoje, pois um voo de reconhecimento já está previsto para ocorrer amanhã.
Carolina do Norte e Sul devem monitorar o desenvolvimento desse sistema, pois o ciclone poderia impactar ambos os estados, provocando principalmente acumulados de chuva significativos.

skaep52.png


HiEoAUa.png


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Felipe Freitas

Cumulonimbus
Registo
11 Fev 2012
Mensagens
3,766
Local
Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
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SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1000 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the northwestern Caribbean Sea across Cuba, southern Florida,
and the Bahamas is associated with an upper-level trough and a weak
surface trough. An area of low pressure is expected to form in
association with this disturbance during the next day or two. The
low could gradually acquire subtropical characteristics over the
next few days while it moves generally northward at a slow forward
speed. For additional information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 11 AM EDT
Wednesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent
 

Orion

Furacão
Registo
5 Jul 2011
Mensagens
19,740
Local
Açores
Atualização:

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For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending from the east coast
of Florida across the Bahamas and the adjacent Atlantic waters are
associated with an upper-level trough and a weak surface low located
north of the northwestern Bahamas. Conditions are expected to
become gradually more favorable for development over the next day or
so while this system moves slowly northward and then northwestward.
A subtropical or tropical cyclone could form by tomorrow or Friday,
and interests along the southeast coast of the United States should
monitor the progress of this system through the weekend. Regardless
of development, heavy rain is possible over portions of the coastal
southeastern United States beginning tomorrow. The next Special
Tropical Weather Outlook will be issued on this system by 8 PM EDT
today. For additional information, see products from your local
National Weather Service forecast office and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2