Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Atlântico 2018)

[Orion]

Trajetórias díspares nos modelos. A previsão do NHC, que tem uma batelada de modelos à sua disposição, está mais de acordo com a do ECM a 72h (saídas das 00z).

Outra dificuldade reside na evolução do ciclone aquando da passagem pela água mais quente ao largo da costa.

Na discussão:

Given the broad inner-core wind field and belligerent westerly wind shear forecast to persist for the next 48 hours or so, only gradual intensification is expected. By 72 hours, however, when the cyclone is forecast to move slowly over above-normal SSTs of 28-29C and into an upper-level col and weak wind shear, some additional strengthening could occur. For now, the intensity forecast will remain conservative due to possible intrusion of dry mid-level air before landfall, and closely follows the HCCA consensus model.

 

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[Orion]

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/tropicalcyclone/seasonal/northatlantic2018

 

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[Orion]

Although there have been no recent observations to support the 35-kt intensity, the intensity is held at that value since the aircraft has not sampled the area well east of the center and due to the overall increase in convection.

The NHC intensity forecast calls for steady strengthening, but only the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance brings Alberto near hurricane strength before landfall. Steady weakening should occur after the center moves inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 21.6N 84.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 23.8N 84.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 26.0N 85.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 27.4N 86.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 28/1200Z 28.7N 86.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H 29/1200Z 31.6N 87.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

Há um intervalo de 10 nós (18.5 km/h) para chegar a furacão (aviso das 15h UTC).

 

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Estado de Emergência declarado em todo o Estado da Florida!

 

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